Airport Systems http://avaxhome.ws/blogs/ChrisRedfield About the Authors Dr. Richard de Neufville is professor of Engineering Systems and professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at MIT. He is known for his development of engineering systems analysis and many texts, most recently, Flexibility in Engineering Design. He has consulted and taught on airport planning “on all continents except Antarctica” for over 40 years. Among his many honors are the Francis X. McKelvey award for Aviation, the FAA award for Excellence in Education (with Amedeo Odoni) and several other teaching awards, the Irwin Sizer award for the Most Significant Contribution to MIT Education, the Chevalier des Palmes Académiques (France), and an honorary doctorate from the Delft University of Technology. Dr. Amedeo R. Odoni is professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics and professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at MIT. He specializes in the use of operations research and other quantitative methods in planning, designing, operating, and evaluating airport and air traffic management systems. Over the years he has consulted at Amsterdam, Athens, Boston, Milan, Montreal, Munich, New Delhi, New York, Sydney, Stockholm, and many other airports, as well as several civil aviation authorities. He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering, a fellow of INFORMS, and the recipient of an honorary doctorate from the Athens University of Economics and Business and of many awards for his research and teaching. He has served, among other positions, as codirector of MIT’s Operations Research Center and of NEXTOR, the National Center of Excellence in Aviation Operations Research, established by the FAA in 1996. Dr. Peter P. Belobaba is principal research scientist at MIT, where he teaches graduate courses on the Airline Industry and Airline Management. He is program manager of MIT’s Global Airline Industry Program and director of the PODS Revenue Management Research Consortium. He has a Ph.D. in Flight Transportation Systems from MIT. He is a lead author and editor of the recently released book, The Global Airline Industry. Dr. Belobaba has been involved in research related to airline economics, pricing, competition, and revenue management since 1985. He has worked as a consultant on the development and implementation of revenue management systems at over 40 airlines and other companies worldwide. He has also published articles in a variety of journals, including Airline Business, Operations Research, Transportation Science, Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, and Journal of Air Transport Management. Dr. Tom G. Reynolds specializes in advanced air transportation systems development and environmental mitigations at MIT Lincoln Laboratory, where he works in the Air Traffic Control Division. He has particular interest in the development of advanced technologies and operations for improving efficiency and mitigating environmental impacts of aviation, and has helped deploy many improvements at major international airports in the United Kingdom and the United States. He has a Ph.D. in Aerospace Systems from MIT, and has worked on the research staff at MIT, the University of Cambridge, and British Airways Engineering. He has won several national awards including the AIAA Orville & Wilbur Wright Graduate Award and was a U.K. Fulbright Scholar. Airport Systems Planning, Design, and Management Richard de Neufville Amedeo R. Odoni with contributions by Peter Belobaba and Tom Reynolds Second Edition New York Chicago San Francisco Lisbon London Madrid Mexico City Milan New Delhi San Juan Seoul Singapore Sydney Toronto Copyright © 2013 by The McGraw-Hill Education LLC. All rights reserved. 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This limitation of liability shall apply to any claim or cause whatsoever whether such claim or cause arises in contract, tort or otherwise. To Ginger, Julie, and Robert de Neufville Eleni Mahaira-Odoni Mary Belobaba The Reynolds family Contents Preface Acknowledgments User’s Guide Part I Introduction 1 The Future of the Airport and Airline Industry 1.1 The Airport Industry in the Early Twenty-First Century 1.2 Long-Term Growth 1.3 Organizational Change Low-Cost and Integrated Cargo Airlines Privatization Globalization 1.4 Technological Change 1.5 Implications for Airports Systems Planning and Design Exercises References 2 The Evolving Airline Industry: Impacts on Airports 2.1 Trends in Airline Fleets 2.2 Airline Network Structures 2.3 Airline Scheduling and Fleet Assignment Optimization 2.4 Airline Operations at the Airport 2.5 Airline Operating Costs and Productivity 2.6 Summary Exercises References 3 International Differences 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Some Physical Differences Check-in Facilities Aircraft Contact Stands 3.3 Some Useful Distinctions National Differences in Diversity of Decision Making National Differences in Performance Criteria 3.4 Implications for Practice General Implications Specific Implications Exercises References Part II 4 Systems Planning Design and Management Dynamic Strategic Planning 4.1 Planning Concepts Plans Master Plans Strategic Plans 4.2 Systems Perspective Airport Systems Planning Airport Systems 4.3 The Forecast Is “Always Wrong” Cost Estimation Aggregate Forecasts Effect of Longer Planning Periods Effect of Economic Deregulation 4.4 Concept of Dynamic Strategic Planning Assessment of the Issues Flexible Approach Proactive Stance 4.5 Dynamic Strategic Planning Process and Methods 4.6 Summary of Dynamic Strategic Planning Exercises References 5 Multi-airport Systems 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Basic Concepts and Issues Definitions Prevalence Unequal Size 5.3 Difficulties in Developing Multi-airport Systems Insufficient Traffic at New Airport Difficulty in Closing Old Airport Insufficient Traffic Overall Impractical to Allocate Traffic Volatility of Traffic at Secondary Airport Overall Perspective 5.4 Market Dynamics Concentration due to Sales Opportunities Airlines Concentrate on Routes Airlines Concentrate at Primary Airports Factors Favoring Multi-airport Systems 5.5 Planning and Developing Multi-airport Systems Land Banking Incremental Development Flexible Facilities Careful Marketing 5.6 Take-aways Exercises References 6 Aviation Environmental Impacts and Airport-Level Mitigations 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Aircraft Noise Background Aircraft Noise Sources Measuring Aircraft Noise and Its Impacts Airport-Level Noise Mitigations 6.3 Air Quality Background Air Quality Emissions Sources Measuring Air Quality and Its Impacts Airport-Level Air Quality Mitigations 6.4 Climate Change Background Climate Change Emissions Sources Measuring Climate Change and Its Impacts Airport-Level Climate Change Mitigations 6.5 Water Quality Water Quality Impacts Airport-Level Water Quality Mitigations 6.6 Wildlife Wildlife Impacts Airport-Level Wildlife Mitigations 6.7 Environmental Legislation and Review Processes Environmental Legislation Environmental Review Processes 6.8 Summary Exercises References 7 Organization and Financing 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Ownership and Management of Airports 7.3 Organizational Structures 7.4 Regulatory Constraints on Airport User Charges “Single Till” versus “Dual Till” Residual versus Compensatory 7.5 Financing Capital Investments Outright Government Grants Special-Purpose User Taxes Low-Cost Loans from International or National Development Banks Operating Surpluses Loans from Commercial Banks General-Obligation Bonds General Airport Revenue Bonds Private Financing against Specified Rights to Airport Revenues Exercises References 8 User Charges 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 Introduction Cost and Revenue Centers Guidelines and Background for the Setting of User Charges The Various Types of Airport User Charges Landing Fee Terminal Area Air Navigation Fee Aircraft Parking and Hangar Charges Airport Noise Charge Emissions-Related Charges Passenger Service Charge Cargo Service Charge Security Charge Ground Handling Charges En Route Air Navigation Fee 8.5 Nonaeronautical Charges Concession Fees for Aviation Fuel and Oil Concession Fees for Commercial Activities Revenues from Car Parking and Car Rentals Rental of Airport Land, Space in Buildings, and Assorted Equipment Fees Charged for Airport Tours, Admissions, etc Fees Derived from Provision of Engineering Services and Utilities Nonairport Revenues 8.6 Distribution of Airport Revenues by Source 8.7 Comparing User Charges at Different Airports Government Funding Coverage of Charges and Quality of Services Offered Volume of Traffic Size and Timing of Capital Expenditures Characteristics of Traffic General Cost Environment Accounting Practices Treatment of Nonaeronautical Revenues 8.8 Ground Handling Services 8.9 Landing Fee Computation: Average-Cost Pricing 8.10 Historical Cost versus Current Cost Exercises References Part III The Airside 9 Airfield Design 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Airport Classification Codes and Design Standards Reference Codes for Aircraft Classification Airport Reference Code Practical Implications Runway Designation and Classification 9.3 Wind Coverage 9.4 Airport Layouts Land Area Requirements and Related Observations Airport Layouts 9.5 Runway Length Declared Distances Usability of a Runway Practical Considerations 9.6 Runway Geometry Separations from Other Parts of the Airfield Vertical Profile 9.7 Taxiways Dimensional Specifications and Separations Special Cases 9.8 Aprons 9.9 Physical Obstacles Exercises References 10 Airfield Capacity 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Measures of Runway Capacity 10.3 Factors Affecting the Capacity of a Runway System Number and Geometric Layout of the Runways ATM Separation Requirements Visibility, Ceiling, and Precipitation Wind Direction and Strength Mix of Aircraft Mix and Sequencing of Movements Type and Location of Runway Exit State and Performance of the ATM System Environmental Considerations 10.4 Range of Airfield Capacities and Capacity Coverage 10.5 A Model for Computing the Capacity of a Single Runway 10.6 Generalizations and Extensions of the Capacity Model 10.7 Capacity of Other Elements of the Airfield Capacity of the Taxiway System Capacity of the Aprons Exercises References 11 Airfield Delay 11.1 Introduction 11.2 The Characteristics of Airside Delays 11.3 Policy Implications and Practical Guidelines 11.4 The Annual Capacity of a Runway System 11.5 Estimating Delays with Models 11.6 Measurement and Attribution of Delays Exercises References 12 Demand Management 12.1 Introduction 12.2 Background and Motivation 12.3 Administrative Approaches to Demand Management Schedule Coordination: The IATA Approach EU Modifications of IATA’s WSG Experience in the United States 12.4 Economic Approaches to Demand Management Congestion Pricing in Theory Congestion Pricing in Practice 12.5 Hybrid Approaches to Demand Management Slots Plus Congestion Pricing Slot Auctions Secondary Trading: Buying and Selling Slots 12.6 Policy Considerations Exercises References 13 Air Traffic Management 13.1 Introduction 13.2 Evolution and Main Characteristics of ATM Systems Airspace Structure Handling of a Typical Airline Flight Airport Traffic Control Tower Terminal Airspace Control Center Surveillance Navigation for Precision Instrument Approaches En Route Control Centers 13.3 Air Traffic Flow Management Objectives and Limitations of ATFM ATFM Operations Ground Delay Programs 13.4 Collaborative Decision-Making Additional Technical Issues and Extensions 13.5 Near- and Medium-Term Enhancements Exercises References Part IV Landside 14 Configuration of Passenger Buildings 14.1 Overview 14.2 Importance of Selection 14.3 Systems Requirements for Airport Passenger Buildings General Considerations Passenger Perspective Airline Perspective Owners’ Perspective Retail Perspective Government Agencies Balance 14.3 Five Basic Configurations Finger Piers Satellites Midfield Concourses Linear Buildings Transporters Centralized and Dispersed 14.4 Evaluation of Configurations Walking Distances Aircraft Delays Transporter Economics Flexibility 14.5 Assessment of Configurations 14.6 Hybrid Configurations in Practice Exercises References 15 Overall Design of Passenger Buildings 15.1 Specification of Traffic Loads The Issue Peak-Hour Basis for Design Adjustment for Decreasing Peaks Nature of Loads 15.2 Shared Use Reduces Design Loads Peaking of Traffic Uncertainty of Traffic 15.3 Analysis for Shared Use Peaking, Hourly Variation Peaking, Daily (or Longer) Variation Uncertainty, Daily Variation Uncertainty, Long-Term Variation Overall Implications of Sharing 15.4 Space Requirements for Waiting Areas Importance of Level of Service Importance of Dwell Time Estimation of Areas 15.5 Space Requirements for Passageways The Formulas Effective Width 15.6 Areas for Baggage Handling and Mechanical Systems 15.7 Take-aways Exercises References 16 Detailed Design of Passenger Buildings 16.1 Design Standards 16.2 Identification of Hot Spots 16.3 Analysis of Possible Hot Spots 16.4 Simulation of Passenger Buildings 16.5 Specific Facilities Queues Check-in Areas Security Checkpoints Passport Control Processes Moving Walkways (or Sidewalks) Waiting Lounges Concession Space Baggage Claim Areas Baggage Makeup Space Curbside and Equivalent Areas Taxi Operations Consolidated Rental Car Facilities 16.6 Take-aways Exercises References 17 Ground Access and Distribution 17.1 Introduction 17.2 Regional Airport Access Nature of Airport Access Traffic Distribution of Airport Access Traffic Preferences of the Users Needs of Airport Operators 17.3 Cost-Effective Solutions The Issue Door-to-Door Analysis Rail Solutions Highway Solutions 17.4 Parking Short-Term Parking Premium Parking Structured Parking Long-Term Parking Rental Car Parking Employee Parking 17.5 Automated People Movers APM Technology Characteristics APM Suppliers 17.6 Landside APMs 17.7 Airside APMs 17.8 Airport APM Planning Issues Capacity and Function Network and Route Capacity 17.9 Within-Airport Distribution of Checked Bags Security Inspection IT-Based Control Systems Mechanical Systems Capacity 17.10 Take-aways Exercises References Part V Reference Material 18 Data Validation 18.1 The Issue Errors Incompleteness 18.2 The Resolution Exercises References 19 Forecasting 19.1 Forecasting Assumptions 19.2 Fundamental Mathematics 19.3 Forecasts 19.4 Scenarios 19.5 Integrated Procedure Exercises References 20 Flows and Queues at Airports 20.1 Introduction 20.2 Describing an Airport Queuing System The User Generation Process The Service Process The Queuing Process 20.3 Typical Measures of Performance and Level of Service Utilization Ratio Expected Waiting Time and Expected Number in Queue Variability Reliability Maximum Queue Length The Psychology of Queues 20.4 Short-Term Behavior of Queuing Systems 20.5 Cumulative Diagrams 20.6 Long-Term Behavior of Queuing Systems Little’s Law Relationship between Congestion and Utilization 20.7 Policy Implications Exercises References 21 Peak-Day and Peak-Hour Analysis 21.1 Introduction 21.2 Definitions of the DPD and DPH 21.3 Conversion of Annual Forecasts into DPD and DPH Forecasts Approximate “Default” Conversion Coefficients and Why They Work Well 21.4 DPH Estimates of Aircraft Movements versus Passengers 21.5 DPH Estimates of Flows of Arriving Passengers and of Departing Passengers Exercises References Acronyms and Symbols Index Preface Welcome to the second edition of Airport Systems Planning, Design, and Management! Recognizing the widespread adoption and worldwide use of the first edition (translated into two non-Roman scripts, Greek and Mandarin), we have thoroughly rewritten the text to make it as useful as possible to our readers. This new version deals with the major shifts in the airport/airline industry that have occurred in the past decade. It contains significant new material and is now thoroughly up-to-date. This book is about creating effective and efficient airports. To achieve this objective, professionals need to consider the whole problem, from the initial planning, through the design of the facilities, to the ultimate management and operation of the airport. The text uniquely integrates these phases, in contrast to other books that only deal with parts of the problem. Specifically, the book • Begins by setting the industry context that affects airport development • Follows with chapters on the systems aspects of airport development, such as dealing with uncertainty in forecasts, the environment, and financing • Then deals with the airside issues (runway, airfield capacity, and delays) and the landside (design of terminals and airport access) • And, ends with reference material supporting the overall text (such as forecasting, flows and queues, etc.) The text takes a worldwide perspective throughout. It thus serves both North American and international users. What Are Its Distinctive Themes? The book emphasizes helping the readers understand the issues. This is important. To deal with them effectively and efficiently, professionals need to appreciate how and why things work as they do. This is especially true because circumstances for airport development differ from place to place, and are constantly evolving. The book’s approach contrasts with other books that focus on current rules and formulas. The book also takes a systems approach. It recognizes that the different aspects of airport development affect each other. Designers should therefore not consider them in isolation. For example, efficient airport operations depend on thoughtful planning of the airfield and effective design of the terminal area. Likewise, good management of the facilities reduces the need for capacity and improves the planning process. The text uniquely provides an integrated approach to airport development. Motivation for Revision The airport industry has evolved considerably in the decade since the 2003 edition. • The airline demand for airport services has changed as major airlines have consolidated and the low-cost carriers have become major factors in the industry. • Environmental regulations and international rules have greatly shifted emphasis. • Airport technology has changed—new types of aircraft, satellite-based air traffic control, security controls, and information technology serving passengers and bags. • Techniques and models for planning, designing, and managing airports have advanced considerably. • New research results are available. Intended Audience The book is for all those with a major interest in airport planning, design, and management. This includes owners and operators; architects and engineers; government officials; airlines, concessionaires, and other providers of airport services; travelers and shippers; and neighbors and communities, as well as members of the public. Readers need no specific experience or skills to use it. A serious interest in the topic is all that is required to make good use of the text. The authors recognize that most people become involved with airport planning, design, and management later in their careers and come from a broad range of professional backgrounds. The book has proven to be useful worldwide. It stresses universally applicable concepts and approaches to airport problems. It refers to several different sets of international and national standards on the airside and the landside and points out both similarities and differences in current airport practices around the globe. The text draws heavily on worldwide experience to bring out the best available approaches to each issue. The text assumes that readers need to deal with current issues in airport planning, design, and management. It focuses on the actual problems that arise, and on practical, effective ways of dealing with them. Theory and methodology appear only to the extent that they are relevant and useful. The authors have tried to illustrate theory and methods with appropriate examples wherever possible. The text is suitable for students in planning and design curricula. The authors have used the material that has led up to this book since around 1980, in both their courses at MIT (the Massachusetts Institute of Technology) and professional short courses worldwide, “on every continent except Antarctica.” The Content The book concentrates on significant commercial airports, those with more than about 1 million passengers a year. It only considers smaller airports or military bases when they provide a region with significant current or prospective capacity to handle airline traffic. Likewise, it does not deal with special facilities such as heliports or seaplane bases. The text covers both the development and management aspects of airports. Systems design recognizes that the costs of building and operating a major facility such as an airport are comparable. Good planning and design thus makes sure that the physical configuration of a project facilitates operations and that the management procedures enable owners to avoid unnecessary capital costs. The text discusses in detail each of the major development topics: • Airport site characteristics • The layout of runways, taxiways, and aircraft aprons • Design of passenger buildings and their internal systems, including security • Analysis of environmental impacts • Planning for ground access to the airport It also treats the operational and managerial issues of the following: • Air traffic control • Management of congestion and queues • The determination of peak-hour traffic • Environmental impacts • Financing, pricing, and demand management Competition increasingly provides the context for commercial airports. The success of any airport depends most importantly on its advantages compared to other airports, now and as they may be in the future. The text thus carefully describes competition between airports, both within and between metropolitan areas, as well as in the context of airline networks operating nationally, internationally, and globally. It also discusses how international trends in the industry might change the competitive picture. Dynamic strategic planning is the approach used to bring these specific topics together. It is the modern method for designing complex systems over time. It builds upon the understanding that all forecasts are unreliable, uses the procedures of decision and options analysis of risky situations, and incorporates the economics of financing. The text covers these topics as needed. The overall object is to plan, design, and manage airports so that they can respond flexibly to the unknown, uncertain future conditions. Format The book should be easy to understand. It is free of unnecessary mathematical expressions or technical terms. Most of the material is easily accessible to the broad range of persons concerned with airport systems planning, design, and management: engineers and architects as well as managers who do not have a technical background. We have made the text easy to use by the many airport professionals who are neither engineers nor native speakers of English. The book features numerous examples illustrating the application of the concepts and methods. It draws upon actual cases from the authors’ worldwide experience. The emphasis throughout is on dealing effectively with real issues. A reference section presents basic theory and, in some cases, background mathematics. Persons who do not need this complementary material can skip this section. Users can combine this reference material with chapters on specific issues to meet their need for information on a particular topic. As the following User’s Guide describes, readers can tailor the material to their requirements. Richard de Neufville Peter Belobaba Amedeo Odoni Tom Reynolds Acknowledgments Over decades, many people helped the authors learn about airport systems planning, design, and management. Recognizing that we cannot possibly list them all, we particularly want to thank those who played important roles in helping us develop material for both this second and the 2003 first editions. From government, our collaborators have included Larry Kiernan, Ashraf Jan, Richard Doucette, and Danielle Rinsler, U.S. Federal Aviation Administration; Zale Anis, Volpe National Transportation Systems Center; Jean-Marie Chevallier, Aéroports de Paris; Dr. Lloyd McCoomb, Greater Toronto Airport Authority; and Flavio Leo, Massport. Numerous consultants and practicing professionals helped ensure that the work reflected actual conditions in the field. These include John Heimlich, Katherine Andrus, Tom Browne, Patricia Edwards, Russell Gold, Paul McGraw, and Robert Zoldos, formerly of Air Transport Association, now Airlines for America; Richard Marchi, Airports Council International; Regine Weston, Weston-Wong Associates and Arup; Christina Avgerinos, Ascendant; Dr. Philippe Bonnefoy, Booz Allen Hamilton; Dr. Husni Idris, Engility Corporation; Cliff King, Louis Berger Associates; William Woodhead, formerly of Kinhill Engineers, Australia; Harley Moore, Lea+Elliott; Dan Kasper, LECG; Robert Weinberg, Marketplace Development; William Swedish, MITRE; Shota Morita and his Airports Department, Pacific Consultants International, Tokyo; Steve Belin, formerly of Simat Helliesen and Eichner; Thomas Brown, United Airlines; and Martin Plazyk, VanDer-Lande Industries. We also gratefully acknowledge the contributions of academic colleagues: Prof. Alex de Barros, University of Calgary; Prof. Rigas Doganis, Cranfield University, U.K.; Prof. JohnPaul Clarke, Georgia Institute of Technology; Prof. Robert Caves and Dr. Ian Humphreys, Loughborough University, U.K.; Prof. Arnold Barnett, Prof. R. John Hansman, Prof. John Miller, and Prof. Ian Waitz, MIT; Dr. Christoph Wollersheim, MIT; Dr. Steven Bussolari and Dr. Hayley Davison Reynolds, MIT Lincoln Laboratory; and Prof. Andreas Schäfer, University College London, U.K. We especially appreciate the assistance of the students who helped us prepare this second edition: Erika Kutscher, Hèctor Fornes Martinez, Kamala Shetty, Vincent Surges, and Alexander Wulz. We gratefully acknowledge the FAA-sponsored Airport Cooperative Research Program. The ACRP has sponsored a great body of work since its beginnings in 2005. The fruits of these efforts are freely available through the Transportation Research Board of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. These represent many significant contributions to airport planning that are essential to being up-to-date in the field. This text draws extensively on these latest results, and we are privileged to be the first to integrate them in a textbook. User’s Guide You can create your own book. Readers can tailor the material to their own needs. Persons interested in a specific topic can put together a self-contained set of chapters that will give them what they need to know about that subject. Architects interested in the design of passenger buildings, for example, can assemble an integrated guide to the subject. They can put together the chapter on that topic and the supporting chapters on the analysis of queues and peak-hour analysis. Users do not have to get involved in topics of no current concern and can concentrate on their immediate interests. Readers can likewise tailor the material to their own skills or depth of interest. Many readers will use the book to get help on a specific project. They will initially want information relevant to only one topic, such as airport financing or airport access, and will be able to get it. The chapters on specific problems, the design of passenger buildings, for instance, are self-contained and provide the necessary guidelines in a way that anyone should be able to understand. Users who do not need the supporting reference material, either because it is not relevant to their job or they know it already, can simply skip it. The text is modular, in short. Its chapters can be assembled in different ways for a variety of needs. This organization is possible because many of the methods used in airport systems planning are common to several different topics. An understanding of the behavior of flows and queues of traffic, for example, is necessary for the detailed design of both runways and passenger buildings. The reference sections dealing with specific methods fit in with several chapters that deal with specific problems. How to Do It To appreciate how to tailor the material to your own needs, it is useful to look at the organization of the material. The mode of use then becomes clear. The text consists of two distinct blocks. As the table of contents indicates, the first block consists of substantive chapters devoted to specific topics in systems planning and management, airside and landside. The second block, Part 5, provides reference on methods of analysis such as forecasting and queuing theory. These reference materials provide in one place coherent discussions of procedures that apply to several of the substantive chapters. Recommended Combinations Each of the big blocks on systems planning, airside and landside, is a self-contained unit. Readers can approach them independently of the others. This arrangement should be useful to persons with responsibilities or interests especially in those fields. For example, managers and government officials might focus on particular topics: planners on systems planning, aviation and air traffic control specialists on the air-side, and architects and civil engineers on the landside. All readers may be interested in Chaps. 1 through 3, which provide context on the future of the airport/airline industry and give an international perspective. They may then choose topics according to their interests. Referring to the following Menu, the authors suggest these packages for readers with broad interests: • Systems Planning: the block in column A plus column B under Risk • Airside: the block in column A plus column B under Variable Loads • Landside: the block in column A plus column B under Detailed Design Menu of Chapters (A) Issues System Planning Dynamic Strategic Planning Multi-airport Systems Aviation Environmental Impacts and Airport-Level Mitigations Organization and Financing User Charges Airside Airfield Design Airfield Capacity Airfield Delay (B) Reference Risk Data Validation Forecasting Variable Loads Flows and Queues at Airports Peak-Day and Peak-Hour Analysis Demand Management Air Traffic Management Landside Configuration of Passenger Buildings Overall Design of Passenger Buildings Detailed Design of Passenger Buildings Ground Access and Distribution Detailed Design Forecasting Flows and Queues at Airports Peak-Day and Peak-Hour Analysis PART I Introduction CHAPTER 1 The Future of the Airport and Airline Industry CHAPTER 2 The Evolving Airline Industry: Impacts on Airports CHAPTER 3 International Differences CHAPTER 1 The Future of the Airport and Airline Industry Airport systems exist in the context of their major clients, the airlines. To build airport facilities that will perform effectively over the 30 to 50 years of their lifetime, it is necessary to appreciate this context. Understanding the state of the airport/airline industry in the early twenty-first century gives a perspective on its future. This is the starting point for a forwardlooking text on airport systems planning. Three trends dominate the airport/airline industry in the early twenty-first century: 1. Long-term growth, which has been about 4 percent per year worldwide. This implies a doubling of traffic about every 15 to 20 years and drives the demand for expansion and improvement. It also leads to the development of new airports, of multiple airport systems in metropolitan areas, and of niche airports serving leisure traffic or cargo. 2. Organizational change, as economic and political deregulation continues to spread worldwide. Economic deregulation creates opportunities for low-cost and integrated cargo airlines to grow, impels governments to privatize their airlines and airports, and leads traditional airlines to consolidate. Political deregulation, such as open-skies agreements, enables new markets, changes in traffic patterns, and increases competition. These ongoing changes in airport clients and their needs make for an uncertain, instable future. Airports will consequently have to plan flexibly so that they can adapt easily as required. 3. Technical change, most obviously in aircraft and air traffic control, but also contextually, particularly as regards information technology that continues to redefine the way we do business. These developments increase the efficiency and the capacity of airport facilities and processes. Airports need to adapt to these new opportunities as they occur. Taken together, these trends are substantially changing the context, objectives, and criteria of excellence and efficiency for airport systems planning and design. 1.1 The Airport Industry in the Early Twenty-First Century Airports and air transport continue their exciting long-term growth. The industry is large, innovative, and has excellent prospects. We need to appreciate this historical base before launching into the future. Moreover, the industry is in the midst of substantial organizational and technical changes that are redefining the practice of airport systems planning and design. The industry is large. As of 2012, it involves about 2.5 billion airline passengers worldwide plus large amounts of cargo. Its annual revenues are more than U.S. $0.5 trillion (one million million dollars). The world airlines operate approximately 12,400 major jet aircraft, valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars. The annual investments in airport infrastructure come to about $10 billion a year. To put these figures in perspective, the industry moves the equivalent of well over a third of the world’s population every year, and its revenues are close to 40 percent of the gross domestic product of the United States. By any measure, this is an important activity. The industry is actively growing. From 1990 to 2012, the worldwide long-term growth rate in the number of airline passengers has been about 4 percent a year—averaging periods of stagnation and boom. During that period, global passenger traffic grew by 120 percent; it more than doubled. As of 2012, this growth was mostly occurring in Asia, where air transportation is becoming increasingly affordable to its large populations. In the first decade of the twenty-first century, annual passenger traffic grew at an average of 9 percent in Asia, 5 percent in Europe, and 1 percent in North America. Airport planners thus routinely have to deal with the possibility of 25 to 100 percent increments in demand. This is because the planning horizon for large-scale infrastructure projects is normally between 10 and 15 years, because of the need to create the designs, assemble financing, and proceed successfully through political and environmental reviews. The growth in air transport translates into major airport projects. About a dozen major programs for airport development, costing over a billion dollars each, are typically under way at any time. Table 1.1 illustrates the situation. Naturally, many smaller projects are ongoing simultaneously. TABLE 1.1 Some Billion-Dollar-Plus Airport Projects of 2002–2012 Airline/airport traffic has been concentrated in the United States. It is the locus of close to half the worldwide air transportation and airport activity. U.S.-based airports and airlines dominate their competitors in size. In 2011, U.S.-based airlines accounted for 7 of the top 10 airlines (Table 1.2). Likewise, many of the busiest airports in the world in terms of the number of passengers have been in the United States. In 2011, U.S. airports occupied 7 of the 20 top spots (Table 1.3). The U.S. share of the world traffic has, however, been decreasing as traffic grows in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Its market share fell from about 40 percent in 1990 to around 30 percent in 2011. Sources: www.airfleets.net; www.fedex.com; www.pressroom.ups.com. TABLE 1.2 U.S.-Based Airlines Were the Largest in the World in 2011 (ranked by size of fleet) Source: Airports Council International, 2012. TABLE 1.3 Busiest Airports in the World in 2011 (ranked by number of passengers) The United States has been a leader in the development of mass air transport. As of 2011, people in the United States on average took 2.3 trips by air every year. This rate was about triple that of Europe and 10 times that in the rest of the world. Historically, average fares in the United States were considerably less expensive than elsewhere. The air transport industry in the United States faced the challenges of high volumes of traffic well ahead of the rest of the world. It has correspondingly led in the development of major innovations that continue to transform, commercial aviation and airport planning and design worldwide. Table 1.4 indicates some of them. These innovations, together with the trends discussed in the following sections, have been radically changing the concept of airport systems planning and design. Indeed, airport systems planning and design in the United States has differed significantly from that in the rest of the world. Therefore, to the extent that countries follow American examples, they will be introducing significant changes. TABLE 1.4 Organizational Innovations in Air Transport from the United States Airlines in the United States have always been private. Elsewhere, however, governments usually owned and operated airlines and airports. It was only around the 1990s that Britain, the Netherlands, Germany, and Japan began to privatize their airlines, setting off a worldwide trend. Airports in the United States generally operate in an implicit public-private partnership. Public entities own the land and are responsible for the runways and other airside facilities. Private companies design, build, and operate much of terminals, hangers, and other landside facilities. Most important, private sources provide much of the money for airport infrastructure.1 Airports in the United States have therefore traditionally paid close attention to the returns on investments and ways to make the facilities pay. In this, the United States contrasts with other countries whose airports were almost all owned, designed, financed, built, and operated by government employees until the trend toward airport privatization began in the 1990s. The preceding means that the context, objectives, and criteria of excellence for airport planning, management, and design are fundamentally changing. Rapid changes in the industry require strategic thinking and the flexibility to adapt to new circumstances. Increased commercialization and privatization of airports calls for an appreciation of the economic and financial aspects of airport operation. Narrow technical excellence is not sufficient to deliver good value for money for airports. Airport professionals need to create dynamic, strategic plans that incorporate flexible designs and enable airport operators to manage their risks. The current environment for airport planning and design requires a systems approach. This contrasts with traditional airport engineering that has tended to focus narrowly on technical matters to the exclusion of issues such as costs and revenues, volatile traffic and risks, and operations and management. Government and international agencies have set fixed design standards that did not allow tradeoffs between cost and service. Textbooks followed the same vein. (See, e.g., FAA, 1988; IATA, 2004; ICAO, 1987; Horonjeff et al., 2010; Ashford et al., 2011.) Comprehensive systems planning and design has not been the norm. In response to current needs, this text broadly considers the range of factors that shape the performance of the airport. It expands the concept of airport planning and design to include operations and long-term management through technical and economical measures. Correspondingly, it uses a wider range of tools for analyzing preferable solutions, as Chaps. 18 through 21 indicate. This systems approach should be broadly useful to all professionals actively associated with airports. 1.2 Long-Term Growth Aviation passenger and cargo traffic grew remarkably over the last generation. Over good and bad years, passenger traffic worldwide increased at an average of about 4 percent from 1990 to 2010. This meant that air travel more than doubled during that time. Growth rates differ significantly by geographic areas. In the United States, the growth rate in the number of enplanements from 2000 to 2010 fell to about 1 percent a year, whereas in the rest of the world this traffic grew about 150 percent over the decade. See Fig. 1.1. FIGURE 1.1 Growth in airline traffic worldwide. (Sources: International Air Transport Association, ICAO.) Cheaper, safer air service has propelled the growth in aviation traffic. Most obviously, the real price of air travel has persistently fallen over the last decades. A steady rise in demand mirrored this long-term drop in prices, as basic economics expounds and Fig. 1.2 confirms. Meanwhile, flight safety has improved dramatically, as Fig. 1.3 shows. Passengers and cargo now enjoy cheaper, safer travel than they did a generation ago. FIGURE 1.2 Traffic worldwide has grown rapidly as costs of airline traffic decreased. (Source: IATA World Air Transport Statistics.) FIGURE 1.3 Long-term accident rates have dropped significantly. (Source: FAA, 2010.) Forecasts of future traffic are questionable. Small differences in assumptions cumulate to enormous differences in consequences 25 years or more from now. Airport professionals should thus be tentative about traffic predictions. For example, slight deviations of plus or minus 1 percent from a long-term annual growth rate lead to substantially different forecasts. A 5 percent annual rate of growth compounded over 25 years gives a result about 140 percent greater, in terms of the starting amount, than a 3 percent annual rate of growth. Managers should place any estimate of long-range forecasts in a broad range of possibilities. Chapter 4 discusses this issue in detail. Traffic will almost certainly continue to grow substantially. Most of the world rarely flies, and the market is far from saturated. Plausible increases in population and national wealth, and the tendency of members of younger generations to fly, will lead to more traffic. Increased globalization also impels long-distance travel for business and personal reasons, in general only realistically feasible by air. Even a modest growth rate of 3 percent a year doubles traffic in 25 years. No one can count on steady growth, however. Trends may slow down or stop. Over the last decades, a series of major causes steadily reduced operating costs that in turn lowered airfares and drove the historical rise in air traffic. These were the following: • Larger, more efficient aircraft • Economic deregulation of the airlines, accompanied by competition • Worldwide privatization of aviation and increased attention to costs • The consequent competitive restraint on wages • The introduction by airlines of differential pricing and revenue management systems that raised load factors • Historically low fuel prices (when adjusted for inflation) Some trends may reverse. For example, fuel prices might rise considerably. Business travel may give way to inexpensive video conferencing or other communications. Concerns about security may limit travel, particularly for short-haul flights. Persistent economic difficulties might stunt traffic growth. The likely scenario, however, is that aviation will register substantial overall increases. When applied to the existing market, even lower growth rates will lead to substantial growth. Overall, it is reasonable to assume that by 2040 the level of passenger traffic could be up to two or even three times higher than that in 2012. For example, the number of enplaned passengers in the United States could be in the range of 1000 to 2000 million a year, compared to the 720 million a year flying in 2010. Airport planners should thus prepare for the possibility of substantial expansion. However, because the growth is speculative, they should not commit to building facilities until they can confirm this growth. In short, they need to manage their risks consciously, as Chaps. 4 and 19 indicate. The composition of the total traffic may differ significantly from what it has been. Over time, air travel has diffused from the rich to the masses, from the early to the later developed nations. It has shifted from being a luxury good for the elite, to a necessary business need, to mass transportation, to international tourism. Airport planners may anticipate an extension of such patterns, both domestically in their own markets and internationally, from North America, Europe, and Japan to the rest of the world. Asia, the Middle East, and even Africa are sure to be increasingly important for the airport/airline industry. Cargo traffic may continue to expand dramatically as companies reorganize their distribution systems around electronic commerce. As of 2012, in a development not widely perceived, the integrated package carriers UPS and FedEx were already among the largest airlines in the world in terms of aircraft operated (see Tables 1.2 and 1.6). To the extent that businesses continue to substitute web sites for brick-and-mortar stores, and to deliver products directly to customers rather than through local warehouses and in-store inventories, the integrated cargo carriers may grow rapidly. This traffic may be a driving force for many future airport developments. 1.3 Organizational Change The organization of the airport/airline industry has been fundamentally changing over the last generation—and the process continues. Economic deregulation creates opportunities for low-cost and integrated cargo airlines to grow, impels governments to privatize their airlines, and leads traditional airlines to consolidate. Political deregulation, such as openskies agreements, enables new markets, changes traffic patterns, and increases competition. This evolution greatly affects airport systems planning and design. The U.S. economic deregulation of the airlines in 1978 catalyzed these organizational changes. Deregulation allowed U.S. domestic airlines to establish and drop routes as they please, charge whatever prices they wish—and do so at a moment’s notice, without having to ask for government permission. This event led to rapid innovation in services, big increases in productivity, and significant fare drops. The example proved contagious, and similar deregulation of air travel has spread to major international markets, notably Australia, Canada, the European Union, Japan, and India. More recently, the United States has effectively been promoting political deregulation of the airlines through its “open-skies” agreements with other countries. These treaties eliminate governmental restrictions on airline destinations, frequencies, and fares, and allow wide access to each other’s markets (except for domestic flights, known legally as cabotage). The result is that much of the air transport industry now operates in a context completely different from the one that prevailed until the late 1990s. Low-Cost and Integrated Cargo Airlines Deregulation enabled new low-cost passenger and integrated cargo airlines to flourish. They have become major and, in some markets, dominant airlines. Their innovative modes of operation are correspondingly changing airport design and operations. Southwest represents the salient success of low-cost airlines. It became the leading carrier of domestic passengers in the United States (Table 1.5). It has been a role model for comparable low-cost carriers in other markets: WestJet in Canada, Ryanair and easyJet in Europe, and AirAsia in Southeast Asia. Source: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Schedule T1, 2011. TABLE 1.5 Southwest Airlines Was the Dominant U.S. Domestic Carrier in 2011 (in terms of passengers carried) Southwest established the standard for low-cost operations in many ways. It uses a standard fleet of aircraft to drive down training and maintenance costs and has flexible work rules that use personnel efficiently to do many tasks. To maximize the utilization of its fleet, it has historically tried to use uncongested airports with minimum delays, and to turn around aircraft in as little as 20 minutes at the gate. These operating policies directly affect airport planning. The low-cost airlines’ push toward uncongested airports has favored the development of secondary airports in metropolitan areas, such as Dallas/Love Field, Miami/Fort Lauderdale, and London/Stansted (see Chap. 5). Their emphasis on quick turnaround times reduces the need for gates and terminal space. Moreover, low-cost airlines have led the way for the development of low-cost terminals internationally, as at Paris/de Gaulle and Singapore. FedEx similarly is the prototype of integrated cargo airlines that provide door-to-door service between suppliers and customers. It integrates its fleet of aircraft with huge fleets of ground vehicles using highly automated, standardized facilities and advanced IT technology throughout. It provides a remarkably efficient service that is reconfiguring the distribution of goods both for manufacturers and consumers. Distributors increasing substitute the integrated cargo service for local warehouses or retail stores. FedEx and UPS have grown to dominate the market for airfreight. In 2010, they carried two to four times more tons than nearest competitors (Table 1.6). Both are among the largest airlines in the world, in terms of number of aircraft. Moreover, they have been highly profitable and correspondingly have the capacity to finance the kind of airport facilities they need. Source: IATA World Air Transport Statistics, http://www.iata.org/ps/index_products.asp. TABLE 1.6 FedEx and UPS Dominated Their Competitors in 2010 (in terms of tons carried) FedEx and UPS have also been responsible for the development of major cargo hub airports such as Memphis and Louisville in the United States, and numerous major distribution centers such as Los Angeles/Ontario, Guangzhou, and Paris/de Gaulle. They are responsible for many “cargo airports” insofar as cargo is the major component of the activity at the airport. In the age of integrated cargo carriers, cargo is no longer a peripheral activity secondary to passenger traffic; it can be a primary driver of airport development. Privatization Globally, governments are getting out of the aviation business. They are privatizing airlines and airports. Business management in a market economy is replacing government ownership in a regulated environment. This trend further changes airport planning, design, and management. Except in the United States, the standard practice for most of the twentieth century was that government bodies owned and operated both airports and airlines. Whereas in the United States the airlines were private and local authorities normally ran the airports, almost everywhere else national ministries or their dependencies ran both airlines and airports. The airport/airline industry thus benefited from public subsidies and protection. Correspondingly, it operated in a highly regulated, political context, in which political interests often dominated economic or commercial rationales. This era, and the design and management mentalities that go with it, are fast disappearing. Worldwide, the airport/airline industry is converging toward standard American practice: airlines are private and airports operate under some form of public–private partnership. Governments have been privatizing their national airlines (Table 1.7). Airlines therefore increasingly follow economic self-interest. They are finding it imperative to drop unprofitable routes and streamline their operations. With the understanding that the business involves economies of scale and scope, national airlines are also merging and disappearing (Table 1.8). These reorganizations affect their airports, most obviously by reducing operations at the hubs of the closed airlines. TABLE 1.7 Examples of Privatized Airlines TABLE 1.8 Examples of Consolidated National Airlines Governments have likewise been privatizing airports. They do this either by creating some forms of public–private partnership similar to those prevailing in the United States,2 or by creating independent companies that they then regulate as local monopolies (Table 1.9). In this environment, cost and economic performance are increasingly crucial criteria for good design, and they are radically changing the timing and nature of what airports decide to build. TABLE 1.9 Examples of Privatized Airports Globalization Political deregulation is also opening up more airports to international, intercontinental airline services. “Open-skies” agreements permit airlines from each country to serve any destination in each other’s country and are becoming increasingly widespread (Table 1.10). They permit, for example, American Airlines to serve Barcelona from any U.S. airport. Such freedom contrasts with previous conventions that limited foreign airlines to a few gateway airports in each country. These agreements enable more convenient nonstop intercontinental service for secondary cities in different countries, as Chap. 2 describes. This has an impact on airports: it favors the use of smaller long-distance aircraft such as the Boeing 787 launched in 2011 (and reduces the need for the much larger Airbus A-380). TABLE 1.10 Examples of Open-Skies Agreements as of 2012 In parallel, airlines have formed three global alliances. These groupings enable the airlines to coordinate their schedules and practices and thus provide services that are more convenient to customers. They have become a notable force in the airport/airline industry, as they account for about half the passenger traffic worldwide (Table 1.11). They present a challenge to airports managers; they demand common airport locations and services, and do so with great bargaining power. TABLE 1.11 Global Airline Alliances in 2012 To a lesser extent, major airport companies have partnered with lesser airports worldwide to provide a range of management services (Table 1.12). These arrangements have brought leading practices to less developed facilities. So far, such arrangements are relatively insignificant overall. TABLE 1.12 Examples of International Airport Consortia as of 2012 1.4 Technological Change The information age is leading to major revisions in the concept of airport facilities. Other developments, such as satellite-based global positioning systems (GPS) and the large Airbus A-380, will continue to affect airports by increasing capacity and demands, but they do not imply major conceptual revisions. In addition, the steady introduction of people movers into airport designs will continue to enable the use of midfield and remote terminals that reduce the great costs and delays of aircraft movements on the ground (see Chap. 14). Information technology is affecting airports principally in two ways: 1. Electronic processing of passengers and bags, both before the passenger arrives at the airport and after, which affects the design of terminals 2. E-tail, the phenomenon of Internet ordering of products, which is fueling the impressive growth of integrated cargo airlines such as FedEx and UPS, as already discussed Electronic processing of passengers speeds up the process, reduces queues, and thus greatly lessens the need for large spaces for checking-in passengers or for moving them through border controls. As of 2012, the possibility of printing boarding passes away from the airport and the use of check-in kiosks at the airport had already greatly reduced the number of airline agents and counters required for check-in (Fig. 1.4). As the industry moves toward the use of “boarding passes” on personal mobile devices, further steps and delays will drop out of the process. Similarly, the electronic clearance of passengers through border controls will speed up the processing of many travelers, reducing queues and the need for cavernous arrival halls. Already, the initial uses of Global Entry in the United States, resident cards in Singapore, and Privium in the Netherlands provide attractive, speedy service to travelers. As electronic processing speeds up service, airports can anticipate the possibility that they will need much less space per person for ticketing and check-in than they now do (see Chap. 16). FIGURE 1.4 Kiosks reduce check-in space for Lufthansa counter at Berlin/Tegel. Similarly, airports should anticipate the potential for electronic identification of bags to expedite the processing of bags. Continuing work on radio-frequency identification devices (RFIDs) is promising and has potential. 1.5 Implications for Airports Systems Planning and Design Taken together, the trends in the airport/airline industry are substantially changing the context, objectives, and criteria of excellence for airport planning and design. Airport professionals now need more than narrow technical skills. They must be responsive to a range of economic and management issues. The context is increasingly commercial and economic. Planners and designers are no longer designing primarily for administrators according to standard norms. They must respond to a broad range of business interests, such as the airlines, the airport operators, and concessionaires of all sorts. Through these immediate clients, they will have to cater to their customers. This means that airport planners and designers will have to think in terms of profitability, revenues, and service to users. The objectives consequently focus more on performance than on monuments. Airports will build more low-cost, efficient terminals. Value for money, good service, and functionality will become dominant considerations. Architectural significance and grand visions will be important but may become secondary considerations. In general, airport planning and design will become more democratic, more in tune with everyday needs, and less directive or technocratic. The criteria of excellence will correspondingly focus on cost-effectiveness, value for money, efficiency both technical and economic, and profitability. Airport planners and designers will have to factor these considerations into the purely technical analyses of traditional airport engineering. This requires skills not usually part of engineering or architectural training. It calls for an understanding of economic and financial analyses. It extends beyond construction to operations and the management of risk. In short, it calls for a systems perspective. A systems approach will be the basis for proper future planning and design of airports. Airport professionals will recognize that they will have to consider technical, economic, and social issues jointly as part of a larger system evolving over time to meet varying loads and demands. This text presents the essential elements of how to do this. Exercises 1.1. Select an airport or region for a case study. Obtain data on growth of airport traffic and airline operations. What are the trends over the last 10 years? How do they compare with international or regional trends? Discuss how future traffic might evolve for your case. 1.2. Select an airport and find out how the continuing reorganization of the airline industry has affected operations over the previous 10 years? Have airline clients changed? Have they needed new facilities or required relocation? Describe the overall evolution. 1.3. Estimate the growth rate for integrated cargo carriers by comparing current statistics with those in Table 1.6. Use the web to obtain company reports on major carriers to document recent interesting developments. Explain and discuss your view on how you see this activity developing in your region. References ACI, Airports Council International (2011) “World Airport Traffic Report for 2010,” Montreal, Canada. Ashford, N., Mumayiz, S. A., and Wright, P. (2011) Airport Engineering: Planning, Design and Development of 21st Century Airports, 4th ed., Wiley, New York. FAA, Federal Aviation Administration (1988) Planning and Design Guidelines for Airport Terminal Facilities, Advisory Circular 150/5360-13, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC. FAA, Federal Aviation Administration (2010) Trends in Accidents and Fatalities in Large Transport Aircraft, DOT/FAA/AR-10/16, National Technical Information Service. Horonjeff, R., McKelvey, F. X., Sproule, W., and Young, S. (2010) Planning and Design of Airports, 5th ed., McGraw-Hill, New York. IATA, International Air Transport Association (2004) Airport Development Reference Manual, 9th ed., IATA, Montreal, Canada. ICAO, International Civil Aviation Organization (1987) Airport Planning Manual, Part 1: Master Planning, 2d ed., Doc 9184, ICAO, Montreal, Canada. 1 Major airports in the United States raise capital to build passenger buildings, hangars, garages, and the like through bonds offered to private investors or through fees charged to passengers [the Passenger Facility Charge (PFC)]. The U.S. government, through its Federal Aviation Administration, pays a share of the cost for runways, air traffic control, and safety measures. The government contributions are most significant at smaller airports but less important at established major airports. 2 At most airports in the United States, a majority of the management functions—such as finance, design, construction, and much of management—are provided by private companies, although public agencies own the land. See Chap. 3. CHAPTER 2 The Evolving Airline Industry: Impacts on Airports For decades, government regulation of airline fares and services in many cases constrained the growth of passenger traffic. The U.S. Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 represented a major turning point for commercial air transportation, and this kind of relaxation or elimination of economic regulation of airline markets has since spread to most regions of the world. This liberalization allowed increased competition and has led to a dramatic transformation of airline characteristics, as well as their operating and commercial practices. Most of the changes due to deregulation started in the United States and spread rapidly throughout most regions of the world. With increased competition, air travelers have seen dramatically lower airfares (in real terms) as well as changes to route networks and service quality. The removal of barriers to entry allowed innovative new entrant airlines with lower cost structures to offer consumers new options for air travel at lower prices. At the same time, established airlines have experienced increased profit volatility and, in some cases, bankruptcy and liquidation. Increased competition has driven fundamental changes in airline fleets, routes, schedules, and operations, all affecting basic airline economics, operating costs, and productivity. These changes affect many different facets of airport operations. An understanding of how these recent changes and the expected future evolution of airlines can affect airports is essential for airport systems planners. This chapter summarizes the most important trends in airline planning and business practices that have emerged with increased liberalization, and discusses their implications for airports. It examines the trends in fleet composition, network structure, and scheduling that can have a direct impact on airport planners and operators. It also discusses airline operational variability and its effects on operational requirements at airports. It then relates these changes in airline business practices to reductions in airline operating costs and improved productivity. The chapter concludes with a summary of the most important airline industry trends that will continue to affect airports in the future. 2.1 Trends in Airline Fleets An airline’s fleet is described by the total number of aircraft and the specific types of aircraft that it operates. Each aircraft type has different technical and performance characteristics, most commonly defined by its range and size. The “range” of an aircraft is the maximum distance it can fly without stopping for additional fuel, while still carrying a reasonable payload of passengers and/or cargo. The “size” of an aircraft can be represented by its seating or cargo capacity, as indicators of the amount of payload that it can carry. Other important technical and performance characteristics of each aircraft type include a variety of factors related to both airline operational and airport physical constraints. For example, each type has maximum takeoff and landing weights that determine minimum runway length requirements and, in turn, the feasible airports for operating the aircraft. Similarly, limitations on taxiways and gate space and even ground equipment at different airports can impose constraints on the airline’s choice of aircraft type. Published prices for a narrow-body 150-seat aircraft that is typically used for short- to medium-haul flights range from U.S. $60 to 80 million. The list price of the largest longrange wide-body aircraft, the Airbus A380 that can seat up to 600 passengers, is over U.S. $350 million (Airbus, 2012). However, airlines typically pay significantly less than the published list prices because of intense sales competition and price discounting by the aircraft manufacturers. The fleet planning process requires airlines to make long-term strategic decisions that will affect their network structures and ability to operate specific routes for many years, even decades. These investments in aircraft can affect airline balance sheets for 10 to 15 years through depreciation costs as well as long-term debt and interest expenses. The decision to acquire specific aircraft types can have an even longer impact on an airline’s operations, as some commercial aircraft more than 30 years old are still in use today. Environmental concerns and regulations are having a growing impact on airline fleet decisions. The noise impact of commercial jet aircraft is a major issue for airports and the communities that surround them. Many airports now have regulations and/or curfews that limit or prevent the operation of older aircraft types with engines that exceed specified noise levels (see Chap. 6). Similarly, there is a growing trend toward imposition of air pollution regulations designed to limit aircraft emissions around airports. At the start of 2012, the European Union imposed an “emissions trading scheme” (ETS) intended to limit the carbon emissions of airlines operating into and out of European airports. These environmental regulations provide further incentives to airlines to update their aging fleets with newer-technology aircraft that are both quieter and cleaner in terms of emissions, but which have substantially higher ownership costs. As a general rule, the largest aircraft types operate on routes with the longest flight distances. This relationship has less to do with technical or performance issues (such as fuel capacity) than with the realities of airline frequency competition. All else equal, larger aircraft have lower operating costs per mile and per seat for any given flight distance. Irre- spective of distance, it would make economic sense for airlines to operate fewer frequencies with larger aircraft to increase passenger loads on each flight and reduce costs—both total operating costs (due to fewer flights) and unit costs per seat (due to fixed costs being spread over more seats per flight). On competitive routes, however, frequency share is the primary determinant of airline market share, particularly on short-haul routes where more flights improve the convenience of air travel relative to other modes. Frequency share is especially important in the competition for time-sensitive business travelers who pay higher fares than leisure travelers. Figures 2.1 and 2.2 summarize the typical seating capacity and range characteristics of different commercial jet aircraft types available to airlines in 2012. The presentation distinguishes between single-aisle or “narrow-body” aircraft with approximately 200 seats and fewer (see Fig. 2.1) and two-aisle “wide-body” aircraft typically with more than 200 seats (see Fig. 2.2). The positive relationship between aircraft size and range is apparent in both figures, although the strength of this relationship has weakened significantly over the past several decades. The principal aircraft manufacturers have substantially increased the number of aircraft types available, giving airlines a greater choice of aircraft with different range and capacity combinations. FIGURE 2.1 Narrow-body commercial jet aircraft. (Sources: Manufacturer web sites—www.airbus.com, www.boeing.com, www.embraer.com, www.bombardier.com.) FIGURE 2.2 Wide-body commercial jet aircraft. (Sources: Manufacturer web sites—www.airbus.com, www.boeing.com, www.embraer.com, www.bombardier.com.) The smallest narrow-body passenger jet aircraft shown in Fig. 2.1 include the 35- to 50-seat “regional jets” developed by Bombardier and Embraer in the 1990s. At the upper end of the narrow-body spectrum are Boeing and Airbus products with 170 to 200 seats and a maximum range of 6000 to 7000 km. A notable trend is the general increase in the range capabilities of relatively small aircraft. Several aircraft types with 120 to 130 seats can operate nonstop flights over 6000 km (e.g., B737-700 and A319). These smaller aircraft can serve transcontinental routes in North America as well as medium-haul international routes such as Amsterdam-Amman, for example. The development of smaller aircraft with longer ranges enables airlines to provide nonstop flights on routes with relatively low demands. It also allows them to increase the frequency of flights on competitive medium-haul routes that previously were limited to much larger aircraft types. Small regional jets with 35 to 50 seats were introduced in the mid-1990s and their use grew rapidly, especially in North America and Europe. These small jets allowed airlines to offer the speeds and passenger comfort of much larger jet aircraft on short-haul routes, in many cases replacing slower and noisier turboprop aircraft. They also enabled airlines to offer more frequent departures on competitive short- to medium-distance routes. Perhaps the most important driver of the success of these regional jets, however, was their appeal to large U.S. and European airlines with unionized pilots. Pilot union contract “scope clauses” required airlines to employ well-paid unionized pilots for any jet aircraft with over a certain number of seats, typically 70. With the development of 35- to 50-seat regional jets, airlines were able to hire lower-paid pilots to fly these smaller aircraft. These impacts of small regional jets have been most apparent in U.S. domestic operations. As Fig. 2.3 shows, regional jets were introduced in 1997, and the number operated by U.S. carriers on domestic flights grew to 1500 by 2006. The vast majority of these aircraft were EMB135, EMB145, and CRJ-100 and CRJ-200 aircraft, all with 50 seats or fewer. Contrary to conventional wisdom, these regional jets were used by hub airlines and their commuter partners primarily to increase the frequency of service from the hub to small spoke cities, not to over-fly the hubs with new nonstop services (Mozdzanowska, 2004). FIGURE 2.3 Regional jets operated by U.S. airlines. (Courtesy: A. Wulz, MIT. Source: US DOT Form 41.) The growth of the small regional jet fleet has slowed since 2000, as surging fuel prices began to put the economics of 50-seat regional jets into question. Many of the pilot contracts that allowed airlines to fly smaller regional jets with nonunion pilots also came due for renegotiation, further reducing their economic appeal to airlines. Figure 2.3 shows that, after 2005, the growth of U.S. domestic regional jet operations slowed dramatically and that the growth that occurred was limited to 70- and 90-seat regional jets with lower unit costs per seat. With even more dramatic increases in fuel prices starting in 2008, some airlines replaced 50-seat regional jets with newer 70-seat turboprop aircraft that consume less fuel per seat-kilometer. These trends led to the more recent emergence of a new set of aircraft. As the airlines shifted away from small regional jets, Embraer led the development of a new category of aircraft with capacity and range characteristics in between the early regional jets and the larger narrow-body offerings of Boeing and Airbus. Shown on Fig. 2.1, the Embraer 170/ 175/190/195 series filled a previous gap in terms of both seats (75–100) and range (~ 4000 km). Bombardier also announced plans for its “C-series” aircraft, with slightly higher capacities and increased range capabilities. The capacity and range characteristics of large wide-body jet aircraft are plotted in Fig. 2.2. On this graph, the positive correlation between seating capacity and maximum range is much less apparent than in the case of narrow bodies. The capacities of many of the new long-range aircraft have decreased over the past decades, allowing airlines to serve relatively low-demand long-haul international routes nonstop. In addition, a medium-size/ medium-range category of new aircraft types has emerged, as airlines find new “missions” for aircraft with intermediate combinations of range and capacity. Both the Boeing 787 and the Airbus 350 are new aircraft types that provide excellent examples of this trend. First delivered in late 2011, the 787 is a relatively small (230-seat) aircraft with a very long range of over 15,000 km. Some have referred to the 787 as a “game changer” for airlines hoping to expand their networks by adding routes previously thought not to be sustainable given low demand and/or not feasible given their long distances. Two of the earliest routes for the 787 provide examples of how such an airplane will be used—Japan Air Lines started the first nonstop flights between Boston and Tokyo in 2012, while United has announced plans for the first non-stop service between Denver and Tokyo. Note that, in both cases, the airlines use the 787 to add service from their existing hubs to new destinations rather than providing “point-to-point” nonstop services. Although not strictly “point-to-point,” these new flights could well divert traffic from established airline hubs—the Boston-Tokyo flight will carry passengers that previously connected via Chicago, for example, while the Denver-Tokyo service will affect the volume of traffic connecting at San Francisco. As large airlines continue to reinforce their own hubs with more nonstop services to smaller connecting spoke cities, passengers can bypass other existing hubs. This is of particular concern to European network carriers who see the buildup of large connecting hubs in the Middle East as a threat to the traffic at their European hubs. An important exception to the general trend of smaller wide-body aircraft is the Airbus A380 aircraft with 500 to 600 seats and a 15,000-km maximum range. This aircraft has been in service since 2009 and is operated by over half a dozen international airlines on long-haul routes where demand is high and frequency competition is not a major factor. For example, Air France replaced two smaller wide-body flights with one daily A380 flight between Paris and Montreal, reducing its unit costs on the route with little risk of losing market share. Other A380 operators have also assigned the aircraft to the heaviest routes into their connecting hubs—Frankfurt-New York for Lufthansa and Singapore-London for Singapore Airlines are two examples. The largest operator of this largest wide-body aircraft type, Emirates, provides another case study of how airlines will use the A380 and how it might ultimately change global airline competition. In 2012, Emirates operated over 20 A380 aircraft and had about another 80 on order. The airline is based at its single connecting hub in Dubai, and virtually all of its flights operate to and from this airport. As Dubai has relatively small local demand for travel, Emirates depends heavily on connecting passengers that neither originate nor terminate their trips in Dubai. Emirates thus uses the A380 and other wide-body aircraft to carry mostly connecting traffic into and out of Dubai. For example, an industry report indicated that only 10 percent of the average passenger load on an Emirates A380 flight from Toronto to Dubai is actually destined to Dubai with most passengers connecting to dozens of destinations beyond Dubai. As another example, Emirates in 2012 operated daily A380 flights between Manchester, England, and Dubai, a nonstop route that few would have predicted could support such a large aircraft. With the increased diversity of available commercial aircraft, airlines in different regions of the world have adopted different fleet and network strategies reflected in the average size of their aircraft. As Fig. 2.4 shows, the global average size of commercial jet aircraft is 136 seats, but it varies substantially among airlines from different parts of the world. The emphasis of Middle East and Far East airlines on the operation of long-haul services with the largest wide-body aircraft gives them substantially larger average aircraft sizes, at 199 and 172 seats, respectively. On the other hand, U.S. airlines have an average aircraft size that is 40 percent smaller, at 119 seats, as many short- to medium-haul domestic routes depend heavily on frequency competition for market share. The average aircraft size is even smaller in regions such as Central America and Canada, where both frequency competition and lower levels of demand for air travel lead to the use of smaller aircraft. FIGURE 2.4 Average number of seats per aircraft. (Courtesy: K. Shetty, MIT. Source: Official Airline Guide, October 2010.) Looking ahead, the future fleet composition of the world’s airlines will reflect the trends described previously. Airlines will continue to use small new-generation narrow-body aircraft to provide increased frequency of flights on competitive short-haul routes, and to operate a variety of wide-body aircraft types of different sizes to expand airline networks primarily through further growth of existing connecting hubs. There has been little evidence to date of a widespread shift to nonstop point-to-point services, with the exception of some new entrant low-cost carriers (LCCs). Figure 2.5 illustrates the worldwide large jet aircraft (excluding regional jets) order backlog at the end of 2011, categorized both by aircraft type and world region. Asia-Pacific airlines have the most aircraft on order, a result of more rapid air travel demand growth in that region as well as a quicker recovery from the effects of economic recession in 2008–2009. Contributing to the number of these orders is the continued rapid growth of LCCs such as AirAsia, airlines that still see tremendous untapped potential for low-fare air travel in the region. North American and European airlines rank second and third, respectively, in terms of total aircraft orders despite their relatively larger size of fleets and networks. A decade of poor profitability, exacerbated by much deeper impacts of recession and fuel prices have kept these more established airline groups from renewing and expanding their fleets as quickly. Worth noting is the volume of aircraft on order by Middle East airlines—Emirates, Etihad, Qatar, and others all have very aggressive growth plans. FIGURE 2.5 Large commercial jet order backlog, December 2011. (Courtesy: V. Surges, MIT. Source: Manufacturer web sites—www.airbus.com, www.boeing.com.) Although Fig. 2.5 shows some differences in the aircraft type composition of orders by region, the overall picture is that airlines in every region will continue to acquire aircraft of all types. There is no apparent trend toward larger or smaller aircraft, but it is true that Asia-Pacific and Middle East carriers have a greater proportion of wide-body aircraft on order. This reflects both the geographical realities of these two regions (most flights are international and longer distance) and the aggressive expansion plans of the largest carriers operating in these regions. In contrast, North American and European airlines continue to require a greater proportion of smaller narrow-body aircraft to serve shorter-haul routes where frequency competition is more important. Airline decisions, based on their network structures and competitive scheduling practices, determine the aircraft types that serve any individual airport. Large international carriers will focus on wide-body aircraft, but they will also need the smallest regional jets to provide connecting feed on short-haul routes. New entrant LCCs initially focused on 150-seat narrow-body aircraft, but there is recent evidence of shifts in both directions—Air Asia uses larger aircraft for some international routes in Asia, whereas JetBlue in the United States and Azul in Brazil have acquired smaller 100-seat aircraft for lower demand routes. For airports, the diversity of airline fleet characteristics and the absence of universal trends in aircraft types used by airlines simply mean that tremendous flexibility will continue to be paramount. From the smallest regional jets to the largest A380, different aircraft types can have significant airport implications in terms of gate configurations, runway and taxiway requirements, as well as terminal waiting lounge and passenger processing facilities. With the increased pressures of airline competition, volatility of airline profitability and growing movement toward consolidation in the global airline industry, airports will have to accommodate a range of aircraft sizes at any given time and will also have to respond to changes in the fleet characteristics of their airline tenants, sometimes with little advance notice. 2.2 Airline Network Structures The dominant network structure for the vast majority of the world’s largest airlines is the “hub-and-spoke” model, in contrast to the simpler “point-to-point” operations of some smaller new entrant carriers. The large hub airlines depend on connecting passenger traffic to increase loads and revenues on flights into and out of their hub airports. Some airlines with relatively low local market demand at their hubs, such as KLM (Amsterdam hub), Singapore Airlines (Singapore hub), and the rapidly growing Emirates (Dubai hub), could not have grown to their current size without focusing to a large extent on connecting passengers that transit their hubs (also known as “sixth freedom traffic”). Hub-and-spoke network structures allow airlines to serve many origin-destination (O-D) markets with fewer flights, requiring fewer aircraft departures that generate fewer “available seat-kilometers” (ASKs) at lower total operating costs than a complete point-to-point route network. Consider a hypothetical connecting hub network with 10 flights into and 10 flights out of a single “connecting bank” at a hub airport, as shown in Fig. 2.6. A “connecting bank” refers to pattern of operations in which many aircraft arrive within a short period of time at the hub airport, passengers and baggage transfer between connecting flights, and the aircraft then depart with the connecting passengers and baggage on board. Connecting banks can last from approximately 1 hour at smaller domestic hub airports to 2 to 3 hours or longer at larger international hubs. FIGURE 2.6 Hypothetical connecting hub network. In this small example of a connecting bank, each flight leg arriving or departing the hub provides simultaneous service to 11 O-D markets—one “local” market between the hub and the spoke, plus 10 additional “connecting” markets. This airline thus provides service to a total of 120 O-D markets with only 20 flight legs and as few as 10 aircraft that traverse the hub. In contrast, a complete “point-to-point” network providing nonstop service to each market in this example would require 120 flight legs and 50 or more aircraft, depending on scheduling patterns and aircraft rotation requirements. By consolidating traffic from many different O-D markets on each flight leg into and out of the hub airport, the airline can provide connecting service to low-demand O-D markets that cannot support nonstop flights. Consolidation of O-D market demands further allows the hub airline to provide an increased frequency of connecting departures, by offering multiple connecting banks per day at its hub airport. This increased departure frequency further increases the airline’s revenues and contributes to higher market shares relative to its competitors. Hub networks require substantially fewer flights and aircraft (as well as flight crew and other airline staff) to serve a large number of O-D markets, as compared to complete pointto-point networks. The concentration of its operations at a large hub airport also provides the hub airline with additional operational and cost advantages—economies of scale in terms of its aircraft maintenance operations, catering facilities, and airport ground handling services, for example. Hub operations also give the airline more opportunities for real-time “swapping” of aircraft in response to mechanical or weather delays and cancellations, given the large number of aircraft that converge at the hub during a connecting bank. Hub operations also create incremental costs for the airline. Longer aircraft ground or “turn” times associated with connecting hubs can reduce aircraft and crew utilization compared to point-to-point networks. Whereas a point-to-point LCC can turn a narrow-body aircraft in 20 to 30 minutes, a large hub airline will keep the same type of aircraft (as well as its pilots and flight attendants) on the ground at the hub for 60 minutes or more, to accommodate connecting passengers and baggage. Increased turn times reduce the output of each aircraft (ASKs) over which fixed costs can be spread, leading to higher unit costs. A large hub operation can also result in uneven use of airport resources (such as airport gates and runway capacity), and of airline resources and personnel. Surges of arrivals and departures during connecting banks require high levels of ground service and gate staffing, while leaving these human resources underutilized during off-peak periods. The number of scheduled departures and arrivals during connecting banks can exceed the airport’s runway capacity, leading to flight delays in peak periods and unused capacity in off-peak periods. Operationally, weather delays at the hub airport can have severe impacts on the ability of passengers to connect successfully at the hub according to plan. Missed passenger and baggage connections in turn increase operating costs for the airline. From a route planning perspective, a hub-and-spoke network structure affects how airlines evaluate the economics of new services. New routes to smaller spoke cities become easier to justify in an established hub network. In the hypothetical hub network of Fig. 2.6, the airline might require only five passengers per flight out of a new spoke city to each of 10 connecting destinations (in addition to the spoke-to-hub “local” demand of, say, 25) to make the operation of that flight with a 100-seat aircraft profitable. Even if the local OD market demand is too small to justify the new service on its own, the new connecting passengers carried by the flight can make an incremental contribution to the airline’s total network revenue that exceeds the operating costs of the new service. Despite repeated forecasts of more point-to-point flights, the development of bigger and stronger hubs has continued in all regions of the world, especially during slow economic times and/or periods of high fuel costs. During the financial crisis of 2008, the largest U.S. and European airlines responded to the drop in demand and spiking fuel prices by eliminating virtually all flights that did not originate or terminate at their hubs. The reliance of U.S. airlines on hub operations is very high and increasing in recent years. As Fig. 2.7 shows, well over 90 percent of all U.S. domestic flights in 2010 originated or terminated at major connecting hub airports for all of the large legacy airlines—American, Delta/Northwest, United/Continental, and US Airways. For United/ Continental in particular the proportion of hub flights exceeded 99 percent in 2010. This reliance on hub operations is not limited to U.S. legacy airlines. Low-cost carriers AirTran, Frontier, and JetBlue all operate over 80 percent of their domestic flights through their own connecting hubs. The only exception is Southwest, which pioneered the point-to-point style replicated by other LCCs around the world, but even it now operates over 50 percent of its flights into a connecting hub. As air transportation markets mature, the opportunity for LCCs to profitably serve point-to-point routes without any connecting traffic support diminishes. Although we have not yet seen this same level of saturation of LCC services in other regions of the world, the U.S. experience is nonetheless instructive. FIGURE 2.7 Proportion of hub flights operated by U.S. airlines, 2010. (Source: Belobaba et al., 2011.) For the vast majority of world airlines, the economic advantages of hub network operations have consistently outweighed their operational costs. There is little reason to expect the dominant hub-and-spoke network model to falter. There are undoubtedly still many routes in the world that can support new nonstop service by an LCC focused exclusively on serving local point-to-point traffic. However, as air travel markets mature and LCC costs rise, these opportunities will inevitably become scarcer. As has occurred in North America, LCCs in other world regions will have to consider some form of connecting hub operation to contribute incremental traffic and revenues to sustain their growth plans and profitability. Several global airline industry trends reinforce the reliance on the connecting hub model among non-LCC airlines. These include the increasing liberalization of international routes, growing global alliances, as well as the development of new longer-range aircraft with smaller capacities, described in the previous section. “Open-skies” bilateral agreements between countries remove most of the regulatory constraints on the scheduling and pricing of international services. They effectively allow all airlines of either country to operate flights between any two points in the countries involved. They allow airlines to fly what once were thought to be relatively low-demand international nonstop routes from their hubs (e.g., Salt Lake City-Paris/de Gaulle by Delta, Frankfurt-Phoenix by Lufthansa, and Dubai-Hamburg by Emirates). The growth of glob- al airline alliances has encouraged these new international services, with one or both end points being major hubs for one of the partners in the alliance. For example, Salt Lake City is a Delta hub and Paris de Gaulle is an Air France hub, and both carriers are partners in the SkyTeam alliance (see Chap. 1). In addition, the increased range capabilities of smaller international aircraft like the Boeing 767 and 787, and the Airbus A330 and A350 mean that airlines can offer these nonstop flights with a lower risk of not filling seats. For airports, these trends in network evolution and airline route planning suggest that a proactive approach to attracting new airlines and new routes could be beneficial. Airports must, however, understand the changing business models and network characteristics of airlines with differing values and objectives, in order to offer them attractive proposals. An LCC with primarily point-to-point operations will be most interested in finding new airport destinations with large traffic catchment areas, which can offer lower user fees and improved operational reliability than competing airports (e.g., in terms of short turnaround times and lack of congestion). A large network carrier considering a new service from an airport to its hub will be more interested in the potential for its flight to capture an adequate amount of connecting traffic from the new spoke city via its hub, above and beyond the local market potential. 2.3 Airline Scheduling and Fleet Assignment Optimization Airlines must develop feasible and profitable schedules of operations for their aircraft and crews, given decisions about fleet and network structure. The process of developing airline schedules typically begins a year or more before the flight departure date. It then continues right up until the departure time of the flight, as last-minute schedule changes or flight cancellations might be required to deal with unexpected or “irregular” operations. The airline schedule development process involves four interrelated decisions: 1. Frequency: How many flights per day should be operated on each route in the network? 2. Timetable development: What will be the departure and arrival times of each flight? 3. Fleet assignment: What aircraft type will be used for each flight departure? 4. Aircraft rotations: How will available aircraft be routed over the airline’s network? This section describes each of these decisions briefly, to provide a basis for understanding the impacts of airline schedules on the operations of both airlines and airports. The choice of what frequency to operate on a specific route depends on both competitive and economic considerations. Greater frequency of departures on a route improves the “schedule coverage” of an airline, that is, the proportion of desired passenger departure times that can be accommodated by the airline’s flight departure times. Greater schedule coverage is particularly important for time-sensitive business travelers. More frequent flights improve the convenience of air travel for passengers and reward the airline with higher traffic, revenues, and increased market share at the expense of its competitors. In competitive markets, airline frequency share is the most important factor that determines each airline’s market share of total demand, assuming that both prices and on-board service quality tend to be similar among competing carriers. The shorter the distance involved, the more important frequency share is, given that actual flight times represent a relatively small proportion of the passengers’ total travel time. In these markets, it is common for competing airlines to operate smaller capacity aircraft with higher operating costs per seat and per seat-kilometer, trading off higher costs against the revenue benefits of higher market share. The objective of “load consolidation” also affects airline frequency decisions on a route. Consolidating passenger traffic from multiple O-D markets onto one aircraft can allow that airline to operate higher frequency on the route (increasing its market share) and/or larger aircraft (reducing its unit operating costs). This ability to consolidate loads is a fundamental reason for the economic success of airline hubs. Given a chosen frequency of departures on a route, the process of timetable development determines the specific departure and arrival times of each flight. All else equal, peak departure times (early morning and late afternoon) are most attractive both to business travelers willing to pay higher fares and to many leisure travelers as well. However, developing a timetable of flight departures requires airline schedulers to make tradeoffs between aircraft utilization (block hours per day) and schedule convenience for the passengers. See Example 2.1. Example 2.1 A peak-h...
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