Complete Business Statistics Discussion Post
Anonymous

### Question Description

Decision Analysis

For the Unit 6 Discussion Board, you will compose a reflective essay to address the following questions:

Scenario: You are a business owner faced with an important decision that could potentially be very lucrative. Keep in mind the “Six Steps in Decision Making” (textbook reference) as you set up your decision analysis.

1. What is the problem and objective of this decision?
2. Identify at least three alternatives and three states of nature.
3. Create a decision table in Excel QM. See video in Live Binder.
4. What are the potential payoff/losses for each alternative and state of nature?
5. Choose two of the five decision strategies, and solve it in Excel QM. State the best alternative for each strategy.
• Optimistic
• Pessimistic
• Criterion of realism (Hurwicz)
• Equally likely (Laplace)
• Minimax regret
6. Why did you choose the two strategies? What are the results of the best alternative? What is your final decision?

See Example post. ATTACHED

After you have contemplated the questions above, draft your reflective essay. Every piece of writing should have an introduction, body, and conclusion. A good way to plan this particular reflective essay is to write an introduction to the essay. Next, write at least three body paragraphs and address each of the points listed above. End your essay with a conclusion paragraph tying all of your ideas together. The essay should be at least five paragraphs in length.

You are expected to use outside resources for this essay. Cite outside sources in proper APA format. You can find numerous APA resources in the Writing Center Writing Reference Library on the Research, Citation, and Plagiarism page.

Your essay should include a highly developed purpose and viewpoint; it should also be written in Standard American English and demonstrate exceptional content, organization, style, grammar, and mechanics. There should be no evidence of plagiarism. If you are unsure about what constitutes plagiarism, please review the plagiarism policy.

First response: Choose a classmate’s post and review the decision analysis table. Add to this table by choosing a risk level for each state of nature (assign a probability value to each).

1. Calculate the EMV for each alternative.
2. Discuss which alternative is best based on the best (maximum) EMV.
3. Calculate the Expected Value with Perfect Information (EVwPI).
4. Calculate the EVPI.
5. Discuss how much money your classmate should pay for perfect information.

### Unformatted Attachment Preview

Unit 6 Discussion Example - First Response to a Classmate’s Post First response: Choose a classmate’s post and review his or her decision analysis table. Add to this table by choosing a risk level for each state of nature (assign a probability value to each). 1. Calculate the EMV for each alternative. 2. Discuss which alternative is best based on the best (maximum) EMV. 3. Calculate the Expected Value with Perfect Information (EVwPI). 4. Calculate the EVPI. 5. Discuss how much money your classmate should pay for perfect information. ****************************************************************************************** I will review “The New Green!” smoothie business. I will assume that the probability of an awesome nutritional demand is 50%, Moderate nutritional demand is 30% and Poor nutritional demand is %20. Awesome Nutritional Demand 0.5 Moderate Nutritional Demand 0.3 Poor Nutritional Demand 0.2 3 New Carts 1 New Cart 450 150 150 50 -150 -50 0 New Carts 0 0 0 Profit Probability EMV Maximum Expected Value of Perfect Information Column best 450 150 0 Minimum Maximum 240 80 -150 -50 450 150 0 240 0 0 0 450 270 <-Expected value WITH perfect information 240 <-Best expected value 30 <-Expected value OF perfect information 1. The EMV for each alternative is: 3 New Carts 1 New Cart 0 New Carts EMV 240 80 0 2. The maximum EMV would be to build 3 new carts with an expected monetary value of \$240 per day. 3. The Expected Value with Perfect Information (EVwPI) = \$270. 4. The Expected value OF perfect information (EVPI) = \$30. 5. The above calculations then tell me that I should only spend about \$30 (a day!) to get additional information about the nutritional market. So, I guess if I wanted to pay someone to survey my clientele, I should only pay \$30 a day or about \$210 a week to get market information! ...
Purchase answer to see full attachment

## Final Answer

see the attached file

Running head: COMPLETE BUSINESS STATISTICS DISCUSSION POST

1

Statistics
first name last name
name of the institution

As the business owner for my personal juice/smoothie business, “The New Green!” and
given that I have smoothie carts in various locations around town, business has been going very
well and I am considering expanding my business to our neighboring town.
However, to achieve all these I have th...

Tutorurban (753)
Boston College
Review

Anonymous
Thanks for the help.

Anonymous
Outstanding. Studypool always delivers quality work.

Anonymous
Tutor was very helpful and took the time to explain concepts to me. Very responsive, managed to get replies within the hour.

Studypool
4.7
Trustpilot
4.5
Sitejabber
4.4

Brown University

1271 Tutors

California Institute of Technology

2131 Tutors

Carnegie Mellon University

982 Tutors

Columbia University

1256 Tutors

Dartmouth University

2113 Tutors

Emory University

2279 Tutors

Harvard University

599 Tutors

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2319 Tutors

New York University

1645 Tutors

Notre Dam University

1911 Tutors

Oklahoma University

2122 Tutors

Pennsylvania State University

932 Tutors

Princeton University

1211 Tutors

Stanford University

983 Tutors

University of California

1282 Tutors

Oxford University

123 Tutors

Yale University

2325 Tutors