Chapter 10 Elections and Campaigns  WHO GOVERNS? 1. How do American elections determine the kind of people who govern us? 2. What matters most in deciding who wins presidential and congressional elections?  TO WHAT ENDS? 1. Do elections make a real difference in what laws get passed? Copyright © 2013 Cengage Copyright © 2013 Cengage Campaigns Today  Campaign tasks performed by • Media consultants • Direct mail firms • Polling firms • Political technology firms Copyright © 2013 Cengage Source: Federal Election Commission, 2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance Summary. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Source: Adapted from Federal Election Commission summary reports, January 2009 and May 2009. Dollar figures rounded. Inflation adjustment keyed to consumer price index 1976–2008, 3.74 (i.e., assumes that what cost $1.00 in 1976 cost $3.74 in 2008). Copyright © 2013 Cengage Figure 10.1 Presidential Campaigns, Spending on Media, 2008 Source: Federal Election Commission, summary reports, May 2009. Figures rounded. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Campaigns Today  Better or Worse? • Extensive Polling • “High-Tech Canvassing” • Campaign Spending and Fund Raising Copyright © 2013 Cengage Campaigns Today  Here And Abroad • In the U.S., elections have two crucial phases: getting nominated and getting elected. They both require an individual effort on the part of the candidate. • In most of Europe, the political party decides who will be allowed to run and puts the candidate’s name on the ballot. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Presidential Versus Congressional Campaigns Presidential Race  More Competitive • Winner usually gets less than 55% of the vote    Larger Voter Turnout Must Rely On The Mass Media To Reach Voters Incumbent Presidents Are Often Held Responsible For Whatever Has Gone Wrong Congressional Race  Less Competitive • Winner usually gets over 60 % of the vote    Smaller Voter Turnout Closer Contact With The District’s Voters Even Incumbent Congressmen Can “Run Against Washington” Copyright © 2013 Cengage Presidential Campaigns Running for President • Getting “Mentioned” • Money • Organization • Strategy and Themes Copyright © 2013 Cengage g36/g36/ZUMA Press/Newscom Lisa Murkowski, a write-in candidate, won a Senate seat in Alaska, the first person to do this in any state since 1954. She defeated the Republican candidate. Political campaigns are hard work, even when you get to fly on the vice president’s airplane Tomas Muscionico/Contact Press Images Barack Obama campaigned on the slogan “Change We Can Believe In.” Stephen Brashear/Getty Images Copyright © 2013 Cengage Getting Elected To Congress  The Problems Of Malapportionment and Gerrymandering  Winning The Primary  Staying In Office Copyright © 2013 Cengage Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Two Kinds Of Campaign Issues Position Issues • The rival candidates have opposing views and the issue divides the voters. Valence Issues • The voters are not divided on an important issue and examine whether a candidate fully supports their view. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Television and Debates  Television • Paid Advertisements/Commercials • Making the Nightly Newscasts  Debates • What effects do they have on elections? • What risks are involved in televised debates? Copyright © 2013 Cengage Copyright © 2013 Cengage Politically Speaking: Clothespin Vote The vote cast by a person who does not like either candidate and so votes for the less objectionable of the two, putting a clothespin over his or her nose to keep out the unpleasant stench. Copyright © 2013 Cengage In the 1888 presidential campaign, supporters of Benjamin Harrison rolled a huge ball covered with campaign slogans across the country. The gimmick, first used in 1840, gave rise to the phrase “keep the ball rolling.” Library of Congress Alaska Governor Sarah Palin debates Senator Joe Biden during the 2008 campaign. Rick Wiking, Pool, File/AP Photo Copyright © 2013 Cengage Money      The Sources of Campaign Money Campaign Finance Rules A Second Campaign Finance Law New Sources of Money Money and Winning Copyright © 2013 Cengage Candidates first made phonographic recordings of their speeches in 1908. Warren G. Harding is shown here recording a speech during the 1920 campaign. Bettmann/CORBIS John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon debate during the 1960 presidential campaign. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Paul Schutzer/ Time Life Pictures/ Getty Images Copyright © 2013 Cengage Figure 10.2 Growth of PACs 1979–2010 Source: Federal Election Commission. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Source: ABC News/Politics 2010 National Exit Poll, November 2, 2010, reporting data on more than 17,000 respondents. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Source: ABC News/Politics 2010 National Exit Poll, November 2, 2010, reporting data on more than 17,000 respondents. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Source: Center for Responsive Politics, based on FEC data. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Copyright © 2013 Cengage The figures for 1980, 1984, 1988, and 1996 fail to add up to 100 percent because of missing data. Copyright © 2013 Cengage What Decides the Election?   Party Issues, Especially the Economy • Prospective voting • Retrospective voting   The Campaign Finding a Winning Coalition Copyright © 2013 Cengage Figure 10.3 The Economy and Vote for President, 1948–2008 Notes: (1) Each dot represents a presidential election, showing the popular vote received by the incumbent president’s party. (2) 1992 data do not include votes for independent candidate H. Ross Perot. (3) 2004 value on RDI is projection from data available in December 2004. Source: From American Public Opinion, 5th ed., by Robert S. Erikson and Kent L. Tedin. Copyright © 1995 by Addison-Wesley Educational Publishers, Inc. Reprinted by permission of Pearson Education, Inc. 2008 update from Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Union members were once heavily Democratic, but since Ronald Reagan began winning white union votes in 1980, these votes have been up for grabs. AP Images At a public meeting, Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher challenged Barack Obama on his tax plan and quickly became known as “Joe the Plumber.” Copyright © 2013 Cengage Al Goldis/ AP Photo a1968 Sources: For 1964–1976: Gallup poll data, as tabulated in Jeane J. Kirkpatrick, “Changing Patterns of Electoral Competition,” in The New American Political System, ed. Anthony King (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1978), 254–256. For 1980–1992: Data from New York Times/CBS News exit polls. For 1996: Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, 1997, p. 188. For 2000: Exit polls supplied by ABC News. For 2004 and 2008: CNN exit polls. Copyright © 2013 Cengage election had three major candidates (Humphrey, Nixon, and Wallace). b Jewish vote estimated from various sources; since the number of Jewish persons interviewed often is less than 100, the error in this figure, as well as that for nonwhites, may be large. c 1980 election had three major candidates (Carter, Reagan, and Anderson). d 1992 election had three major candidates (Clinton, Bush, and Perot). e For 1980–1992, refers to age 60 and over. f For 1988, white Protestants only. g For 1996, refers to age 45 and over. Figure 10.4 Partisan Division of the Presidential Vote, 1856–2008 Sources: Information for 1856–1988, updated from Historical Data Archive, Inter-University Consortium for Political Research, as reported in William H. Flanigan and Nancy H. Zingale, Political Behavior of the American Electorate, 3rd ed., 32. For 1992: World Almanac and Book of Facts 1994, 73. Copyright © 2013 Cengage WHAT WOULD YOU DO? MEMORANDUM To: Arjun Bruno, National Party Chairman From: Arlene Marcus, State Party Chairwoman Subject: Supporting a National Primary In the past few election cycles, our state’s role in the party nomination for president virtually has disappeared with a May primary date. Several states have leapfrogged ahead of us, and party leaders have indicated that they do not want any more states to move up their primary date. The national party needs to find a way to ensure that all states, large and small, have a real voice in nominating a presidential candidate. Copyright © 2013 Cengage WHAT WOULD YOU DO? Arguments for: 1. A single national primary permits equal participation by all states and presents a fair compromise with the increased number of delegates that larger states send to the national conventions, much like the compromises during the original constitutional debates. 2. The nominating process needs to be less costly, particularly when presidential candidates realistically need to raise $100 million a year before the general election to be competitive for the nomination. Holding all primaries and caucuses on a single day will reduce overall election expenses significantly. 3. If the American electorate knows presidential nominations will be decided by each party on one day, then they will be more likely to vote, a significant factor for elections in which historically, fewer than 20 percent of eligible voters typically participate. Copyright © 2013 Cengage WHAT WOULD YOU DO? Arguments against: 1. Each state decides in conjunction with the national party when its primary or caucus will take place, and the federal system of government designed by the Framers did not guarantee that all states would be treated equally at all times. 2. A national primary would favor candidates with high name recognition and funding to further that recognition and would severely disadvantage lesser known candidates within the party. 3. Even though the general election takes place on one day, voter turnout in the United States still is lower than in other advanced industrialized democracies, which suggests that other factors influence who participates. Copyright © 2013 Cengage WHAT WOULD YOU DO? Your decision: Support a National Primary? Oppose a National Primary? Copyright © 2013 Cengage Chapter 11 Interest Groups  WHO GOVERNS? 1. Do interest groups dominate government, and is any particular lobby politically unbeatable? 2. Why do people join interest groups?  TO WHAT ENDS? 1. Is the proliferation of political action committees (PACs) and other groups good or bad for America’s representative democracy? 2. Should interest groups’ political activities be restricted by law? Copyright © 2013 Cengage Copyright © 2013 Cengage The Rise of Interest Groups   An interest group is any organization that seeks to influence public policy. The conditions that lead to the rise of interest groups are • Broad economic developments • Government policy • Leadership exercised • Increased governmental activities Copyright © 2013 Cengage BRIAN SNYDER/Reuters/Landov A woman holds a Tea Party sign at a rally in Concord, New Hampshire. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Copyright © 2013 Cengage Figure 11.1 What the Top Lobby Spent, 1998–2010 Source: Center for Public Integrity, Georgetown University, Washington, D.C., 2011. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Kinds of Organizations   Institutional Interests Membership Interests W. E. B. Du Bois, scholar and activist, was one of the founders of the NAACP. C.M. Battey/Hulton Archive/Getty Images Copyright © 2013 Cengage Getting and Keeping Members  Incentives to Join • Solidarity • Material • Purposive Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call Group/Roll Call/Getty Images The Service Employees International Union, a large and growing force, listens to Andy Stern, its president until 2010. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Copyright © 2013 Cengage Copyright © 2013 Cengage The Influence of the Staff   Some members of an interest group may not care about many of the issues with which the group gets involved. What the interest group does may reflect what the staff wants than what the members believe. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Interest Groups and Social Movements    The Environmental Movement The Feminist Movement The Union Movement The Million Moms March in 2004 demanded a federal ban on assault weapons. Larry Downing/Reuters Copyright © 2013 Cengage Funds for Interest Groups    Foundation Grants Federal Grants and Contracts Direct Mail Copyright © 2013 Cengage Upper Class Bias?   Do interest groups reflect an upperclass bias? Those most likely to belong to a voluntary association have • Higher incomes • College degrees • Professional or technical jobs Copyright © 2013 Cengage Upper Class Bias?  Consider: • Do interest groups and lobbyists always get what they want? • Are business-oriented groups divided among themselves? • Are there profound cleavages of opinion among the upper class? Copyright © 2013 Cengage Farmers once had great influence in Congress and could get their way with a few telephone calls. Today, they often must use mass protest methods. JP/Laffront/Sygma/Corbis Copyright © 2013 Cengage The Activities of Interest Groups       Information Earmarks Public Support Money and PACs The “Revolving Door” Civil Disobedience Copyright © 2013 Cengage Source: Federal Election Committee, “Top 50 PACs by Contributions to Candidates and Other Committees, January 1, 2009–December 31, 2009,” 2010. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Figure 11.2 Political Action Committees (PACs) Copyright © 2013 Cengage Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call Group/Roll Call/Getty Images Jack Abramoff, convicted of unethical behavior in handling lobbying claims by certain Indian tribes, is sworn in before a congressional committee investigating this. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Copyright © 2013 Cengage Lawsuits, such as this one against Proposition 8 which banned same sex marriage in California, are often more effective than protest demonstrations in changing policies. Fred Prouser/Reuters/Landov Copyright © 2013 Cengage Regulating Interest Groups   1946 – Federal Regulation of Lobbying Act 1995 – Congress unanimously passed lobbying bill • Tightened registration and disclosure requirements • Broadened definition of a lobbyist • Did not cover grass roots organizations Copyright © 2013 Cengage Regulating Interest Groups  2007 – New regulations took effect • No gifts of any value from registered lobbyists or firms that employ lobbyists • No reimbursements for travel costs from registered lobbyist or firms that employ lobbyists • No reimbursement for travel costs, no matter the source, if the trip is in any part organized or requested by a registered lobbyist or firm that employs lobbyists Copyright © 2013 Cengage WHAT WOULD YOU DO? MEMORANDUM To: Kathleen Moore, Senate majority leader From: Christopher Franklin, chief of staff Subject: Full federal financing of presidential campaigns Every presidential election since 1976 has been financed in part by federal funds. Now presidential candidates say they will forego public funding for the general election, given the vastly greater resources available through private fundraising. Congress needs to decide whether elections are a public investment or a political free market for citizens and candidates. Copyright © 2013 Cengage WHAT WOULD YOU DO? Arguments for: 1. Legal precedents are promising. Federal matching funds already go to presidential primary candidates who have raised at least $5,000, in contributions of $250 or less, in each of twenty states. For the general election, each major party nominee already is eligible for federal funding if he or she agrees to spend no more than that amount. 2. The funding required would be small. Allocating $1 billion out of the public treasury for a presidential election every four years is hardly a fiscal drain on a nearly $2 trillion annual budget. 3. The effects would be pervasive. Candidates and party leaders would stop covertly courting big donors with phone calls, lunches, and personal visits, and would focus instead on the needs of average citizens. Copyright © 2013 Cengage WHAT WOULD YOU DO? Arguments against: 1. Constitutional precedent for requiring political candidates to accept public funds is weak. In Buckley v. Valeo (1976), the Supreme Court upheld limits on campaign contributions for candidates who accept public money, but it also defined spending money for political purposes as expression protected by the First Amendment, thereby giving individuals the right to raise and spend as much of their own money as they choose, if they forego federal funds. 2. Campaign spending would soon spiral once again. The federal government may not restrict spending by individuals or organizations working independently from the political parties, and federal funds would merely supplement, not supplant, private fund-raising. 3. Less than 10 percent of taxpayers currently supports public financing through voluntary federal income tax checkoffs, and voters likely would view bankrolling elections as serving politicians, not the people. Copyright © 2013 Cengage WHAT WOULD YOU DO? Your decision: Support Legislation? Oppose Legislation? Copyright © 2013 Cengage Chapter 12 The Media  WHO GOVERNS? 1. How much power do the media have? 2. Can we trust the media to be fair?  TO WHAT ENDS? 1. What public policies will the media support? Copyright © 2013 Cengage Copyright © 2013 Cengage The Media and Politics     Freedom of the Press The United States versus Europe Freedom of Information Act Privately Held Media: • Newspapers • Radio and Television  Federal Communication Commission (FCC) Copyright © 2013 Cengage powerlineblog.com. Reprinted by permission of Powerline. As appeared on www.dailykos.com. Reprinted with permission. Blogs, both conservative and liberal, have become an important form of political advertising. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Journalism in American Political History      The Party Press The Popular Press Magazines of Opinion Electronic Journalism The Internet Copyright © 2013 Cengage Bettmann/Corbis Pixellover RM 3/Alamy News used to come by radio, but today many people read newspapers on iPads and other electronic devices. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Source: Nielsen Media Research, used under license. Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism, 2011 State of the News Media, http://stateofthemedia.org/2011/network-essay/. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Note: 18–34 readership represents the average of 18–24 readership and 25–34 readership. 2006 data is through September Source: The Wall Street Journal (February 15, 2007). Copyright © 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Dow Jones & Company, Inc., via Copyright Clearance Center. Copyright © 2013 Cengage The Internet and Politics It is now easier to:       raise money in small donations organize people to attend meetings take instant (unreliable?) opinion polls instantly criticize your opponent mobilize local followers target campaigners with the names of people they should contact Copyright © 2013 Cengage The Structure of the Media  Degree of Competition  The National Media • Gatekeeper • Scorekeeper • Watchdog Copyright © 2013 Cengage Rules Governing the Media      Newspapers – least governmental regulation Radio and TV – most governmental regulation Confidentiality of Sources Regulating Broadcasting Campaigning Copyright © 2013 Cengage Bebeto Matthews/AP Photo Activists urge Congress to pass a law shielding reporters from being required to testify about their sources. Copyright © 2013 Cengage REUTERS/Jason Reed Senator Barack Obama campaigning for president in Los Angeles. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Pew Research Center for the People Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, “Press Accuracy Rating Hits Two-Decade Low: Public Evaluations of the News Media: 1985–2009,” September 2009, http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1341/press-accuracy-rating-hits-two-decade-low. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Are the National Media Biased?    Do members of the media have a distinctive political attitude? Does that attitude affect what they write or say? Does what they write or say affect what citizens believe? Copyright © 2013 Cengage Are the National Media Biased?   A liberal majority Neutral and objective? • Routine stories • Feature stories • Insider stories  Media’s influence • Selective attention . Copyright © 2013 Cengage Government and the News      Prominence of the President Coverage of Congress Why do we have so many news leaks? Sensationalism in the media Government constraints on journalists Copyright © 2013 Cengage Copyright © 2013 Cengage Brown Brothers When President Theodore Roosevelt cultivated the media, reporters usually were unknown and poorly paid. Copyright © 2013 Cengage In 1933, White House press conferences were informal affairs, as when reporters gathered around Franklin Roosevelt’s desk in the Oval Office. Bettmann/Corbis Today, there are huge gatherings held in a special conference room, as on the right. Copyright © 2013 Cengage JASON REED/Reuters/Landov WHAT WOULD YOU DO? MEMORANDUM To: Matthew Wilson, senator From: Margaret Drinker, legislative assistant Subject: Protecting journalists The Supreme Court has held that forcing a reporter to testify does not violate the First Amendment to the Constitution. But Congress could pass a law, similar to that in many states, banning such testimony if it reveals a confidential source. Copyright © 2013 Cengage WHAT WOULD YOU DO? Arguments for: 1. Thirty-four states now have shield laws similar to the one proposed by Congress. 2. Effective journalism requires protecting sources from being identified; without protection, a lot of important stories would not be written. Copyright © 2013 Cengage WHAT WOULD YOU DO? Arguments against: 1. Every person accused in a criminal trial has a right to know all of the evidence against him or her and to confront witnesses. A shield law would deprive people of this right. 2. A shield law would allow any government official to leak secret information with no fear of being detected. Copyright © 2013 Cengage WHAT WOULD YOU DO? Your decision: Support Bill? Oppose Bill? Copyright © 2013 Cengage
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