People often take shortcuts in problem solving and quickly arrive at answers. Known as heuristics, these shortcuts may increase the speed of decisions but may also decrease the accuracy of those decisions. The experiment used in this assignment deals with inaccurate decisions based on the conjunction fallacy, where people think the chance of two events happening at the same time is greater than just one event occurring. However, the chance of one event occurring is greater than two events occurring; hence, the fallacy.
Access the CogLab demonstration Typical Reasoning. Follow the instructions to complete the demonstration. Next, answer the following questions:
For this demonstration, on average, do participants give higher ratings for single events or conjunctions of events? Based on the demonstration results, did you make your judgments by using objective probabilities? Why or why not?
What is a stereotype? How do stereotypes relate to the findings of this demonstration?
Respond to the following two situations:
You and two of your coworkers have just interviewed a candidate for a job opening at your law firm. Your boss asks you what inferences you made about the candidate during the interview. What can you do to maximize your likelihood of making a correct inference?
John is a young, energetic, muscular, and outgoing individual. Estimate the following for him: