BUS660 Grand Canyon Forecasts and Error Analysis Spreadsheet

BUS660

Grand Canyon University

Question Description

What is the best model for forecasting and why? How do I determine what Alpha and Beta to use of the the Trending Adj Exponential smoothing model? I attached the assignment spreadsheets and the word doc instructions.

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Hi,The value of alpha and eta is chosen such that the MAPE is minimum.It is generally checked using solver where we have to set the objective function of error being minimum and varying the two variables that is alpha and beta.Using this technique you can choose optimal value of alpha and beta.Otherwise,you can take value of alpha and beta manually by inputting different values so that the MAPE is shown to be minimum.I am attaching two files.One word file and other excel sheet where wrote the summary done in Excel.I think excel work was already done,so I included the writ up part.Let me know if you face any doubt.

The aim of the paper is to forecast the total establishment which is less than 1 year. In order
to predict the number of new establishments, different forecasting techniques were employed.
A line chart of the number of the establishment from 1994 till 2015 shows that the number of
establishments increased till 2006 which then started declining. Because of economic
recession, it seems that the number of new establishments started decreasing till 2010.
However, after 2010 new establishments again started to increase. The different forecasting
technique includes forecasting using two-period moving average, three-period moving
average, exponential smoothing and trend adjusted exponential smoothing method. The
forecasting technique is based on the most recent years (2011-2015) for forecasting the
number of establishments for next two period, i.e. 2016 and 2017.
Two-Period Moving Average
Forecasting using two-period moving average is based on predicting the new establishments
considering the average of the two most recent years. Using this metho...

psumanrec (3890)
UT Austin
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