NBCR Business cycles

Anonymous
timer Asked: May 8th, 2018
account_balance_wallet $15

Question description

In class, we used data from The Great Depression to the present to calculate a few statistics on recessions.

Using the same data sheet, for the expansionary phase of the business cycle (trough to peak) calculate:

in months...

Minimum

Maximum

Range

Mean

Median

Mode

Using these statistics and the last business cycle trough, predict when the next peak will be.

Caveat: this is not an approved way to forecast, but it will generate discussion.

From: http://nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html as of 9 November 2016 Econ 102 Duration, Duration, Duration, Duration, peak to trough to peak to trough to trough peak peak trough Peak month Trough month August 1929 May 1937 February 1945 November 1948 July 1953 August 1957 April 1960 December 1969 November 1973 January 1980 July 1981 July 1990 March 2001 December 2007 March 1933 June 1938 October 1945 October 1949 May 1954 April 1958 February 1961 November 1970 March 1975 July 1980 November 1982 March 1991 November 2001 June 2009 43 13 8 11 10 8 10 11 16 6 16 8 8 18 Macroeconomics 21 50 80 37 45 39 24 106 36 58 12 92 120 73 34 93 93 45 56 49 32 116 47 74 18 108 128 81 64 63 88 48 55 47 34 117 52 64 28 100 128 91 Kevin L. Carlson 1854-2009 (33 cycles) 1854-1919 (16 cycles) 1919-1945 (6 cycles) 1945-2009 (11 cycles) 17.5 21.6 18.2 11.1 38.7 26.6 35.0 58.4 56.4 48.9 53.0 68.5 56.2 48.2 53.2 69.5 Note: Month numbers start in January 1800 Econ 102 Macroeconomics Kevin L. Carlson Peak Trough Quarterly dates are in parentheses Contracti Expansio on n Peak Previous trough to to Cycle Trough from Previous December 1854 (IV) Trough -- this peak -- Trough -- December 1858 (IV) 18 30 48 October 1860(III) June 1861 (III) 8 22 30 April 1865(I) December 1867 (I) 32 46 78 June 1869(II) December 1870 (IV) 18 18 36 October 1873(III) March 1879 (I) 65 34 99 March 1882(I) May 1885 (II) 38 36 74 March 1887(II) April 1888 (I) 13 22 35 July 1890(III) May 1891 (II) 10 27 37 January 1893(I) June 1857 (II) June 1894 (II) 17 20 37 December 1895(IV)June 1897 (II) 18 18 36 June 1899(III) 18 24 42 September 1902(IV)August 1904 (III) 23 21 44 May 1907(II) June 1908 (II) 13 33 46 January 1910(I) January 1912 (IV) 24 19 43 January 1913(I) December 1914 (IV) 23 12 35 August 1918(III) March 1919 (I) 7 44 51 January 1920(I) July 1921 (III) 18 10 28 May 1923(II) July 1924 (III) December 1900 (IV) 14 22 36 October 1926(III) November 1927 (IV) 13 27 40 August 1929(III) March 1933 (I) 43 21 64 May 1937(II) June 1938 (II) 13 50 63 February 1945(I) October 1945 (IV) 8 80 88 November 1948(IV)October 1949 (IV) 11 37 48 July 1953(II) May 1954 (II) 10 45 55 August 1957(III) April 1958 (II) 8 39 47 April 1960(II) February 1961 (I) 10 24 34 December 1969(IV)November 1970 (IV) 11 106 117 November 1973(IV)March 1975 (I) 16 36 52 January 1980(I) July 1980 (III) 6 58 64 July 1981(III) November 1982 (IV) 16 12 28 8 92 100 8 120 128 18 73 91 July 1990(III) March 1991(I) March 2001(I) November 2001 (IV) December 2007 (IV) June 2009 (II) Cycle Peak from Previous Peak --40 54 50 52 101 60 40 30 35 42 39 56 32 36 67 17 40 41 34 93 93 45 56 49 32 116 47 74 18 108 128 81 5 8 6 5 8 6 6 5 8 9 5 10 4 8 8 7 8 4 8 7 4 9 9 5 7 6 9 9 8 5 5 6 9 June October April June October March March July January December June September May January January August January May October August May February November July August April December November January July July March December 6 10 4 6 10 3 3 7 1 12 6 9 5 1 1 8 1 5 10 8 5 2 11 7 8 4 12 11 1 7 7 3 12 1857 1860 1865 1869 1873 1882 1887 1890 1893 1895 1899 1902 1907 1910 1913 1918 1920 1923 1926 1929 1937 1945 1948 1953 1957 1960 1969 1973 1980 1981 1990 2001 2007 690 730 784 834 886 987 1047 1087 1117 1152 1194 1233 1289 1321 1357 1424 1441 1481 1522 1556 1649 1742 1787 1843 1892 1924 2040 2087 2161 2179 2287 2415 2496 9 9 5 9 9 6 4 6 4 5 5 9 7 5 8 9 6 5 5 9 6 5 8 8 4 6 9 9 6 5 9 6 9 5 December December June December December March May April May June June December August June January December March July July November March June October October May April February November March July November March November June January February March April May June July August September October November December 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 6 12 12 3 5 4 5 6 6 12 8 6 1 12 3 7 7 11 3 6 10 10 5 4 2 11 3 7 11 3 11 6 1854 1858 1861 1867 1870 1879 1885 1888 1891 1894 1897 1900 1904 1908 1912 1914 1919 1921 1924 1927 1933 1938 1945 1949 1954 1958 1961 1970 1975 1980 1982 1991 2001 2009 660 708 738 816 852 951 1025 1060 1097 1134 1170 1212 1256 1302 1345 1380 1431 1459 1495 1535 1599 1662 1750 1798 1853 1900 1934 2051 2103 2167 2195 2295 2423 2514

Tutor Answer

Merdav
School: University of Virginia

Attached.

Running Head: NBCR Business Cycle

1

NBCR Business Cycles
Institutional Affiliation
Date

NBCR Business Cycle

2
Discussion

Based on the data sheet provided for expansionary phase the following descriptive statistics were
computed.
Duration, trough
to peak
Mean

38.73

Median

30

Mod...

flag Report DMCA
Review

Anonymous
Awesome! Exactly what I wanted.

Similar Questions
Hot Questions
Related Tags

Brown University





1271 Tutors

California Institute of Technology




2131 Tutors

Carnegie Mellon University




982 Tutors

Columbia University





1256 Tutors

Dartmouth University





2113 Tutors

Emory University





2279 Tutors

Harvard University





599 Tutors

Massachusetts Institute of Technology



2319 Tutors

New York University





1645 Tutors

Notre Dam University





1911 Tutors

Oklahoma University





2122 Tutors

Pennsylvania State University





932 Tutors

Princeton University





1211 Tutors

Stanford University





983 Tutors

University of California





1282 Tutors

Oxford University





123 Tutors

Yale University





2325 Tutors