Week 7: Final Risk Management Plan Blue Whale Expeditions Marleine Raisin PROJ595– Program Management DeVry University Professor Emre Ozmen June 16, 2024 1 Project Private investor is planning an oceanographic exploration. The mission is named Blue Whale Expeditions, and the plan is to send an unmanned submersible to one of the deepest locations in the Bermuda Triangle. This mission is a precursor to possibly carrying manned submersibles to the same areas and for the tourist in later years. The project will be managed at the Florida location and will be televised locally. There is some uncertainty and possible environmental considerations, as well as treacherous navigations at specific depths. The project will be managed at the Florida location and will be televised locally. There is some uncertainty and possible environmental considerations, as well as treacherous navigations at specific depths. Risk Strategy For such an exploration there is no direct or general approach that will be taken to manage the risk that will arise to assure success during the oceanographic exploration within a submersible that at some points final goal is to be a manned submersible. Many of the risk management will be in the form of technical risk mitigation which will include using redundant equipment, contingency plans, and simulation of critical scenarios. In general, identifying all potential hazards and determining effective measures to mitigate them is essential to manage risks in underwater exploration properly (Johnson, 2023). Steps will include primarily to ensure redundancy of equipment from remote area and assuring the individual piloting the unmanned submersible is prepared to handle unforeseen events and 2 can be flexible and adapt to the scenarios. This will allow us to properly account for the later preparation of a manned submersible. Creating equipment that is professional and that can be validated. The creation of the submersible will require much input from various fields, such as marine engineering, materials science, and computer programming. The first prototype will not have to be designed to be suitable for human comfort. Instead, its objective is to demonstrate the challenges of traveling to such a deep place pressure issues and how the equipment holds up as it progresses deeper and deeper within the location. As the mission progresses it will be changing the goal to then provide a safe and comfortable environment for a crew. The risk management will include much research and study of previous cases of submersible exploration such as the Alvin which was one of the first deep sea submersibles that could carry passengers. In use since 1964 and operated from Woods Hole, MA (Zhang, 2021). Managing risk would include understanding the risk of exploration within the Bermuda Triangle. Thus far the deepest exploration within the Bermuda Was done on June 18, 2011, Brian Kakuk and Jill Heinerth who conducted the deepest manned SCUBA dive ever completed in Bermuda. These two explored the Bermuda not in a submersible but using equipment that looked more like a space suit than scuba gear. These two plunged to 444 feet. This dive can show this current exploration what can be expected within the journey within the Bermuda, Oxygen needs and if equipment may implode from high pressure. All information is necessary information (Heinerth,2011). 3 Methodology The methodology for the research will be based on case studies, observation as well as experiments. Quantitative research on past dives, divers, submersibles, weather, and other controls will also be included within the research for the risk management analysis. Roles and Responsibilities Amiyah Greene-Lewis Private Investor Alaina Joseph Private Investor Chrisianna Cherenfant Remote pilot/captain for submersible Ronald Raisin Jr. Co-Pilot/Co-captain for submersible Florida Ocean Research organization Florida based installation HI-Tech ocean Engineering marine engineering Blue Sea Material Science Creators materials science IT your way Programming computer programming. Stakeholder Risk Appetite All stakeholders have optimal understanding and level of risk that is experienced in such a journey that is being partaken in this study. The 2 manned team that will later be manning the submersible know they have the most risk. As they will at some point put their lives, careers, experiences, and decision making to the test when it comes to finally manning the submersible. 4 Chrisianna Cherenfant Remote pilot/captain for submersible Ronald Raisin Jr. Co-Pilot/Co-captain for submersible The Florida installation where all research will be being held understands that they aalso take risk in the form of name, and finances and manpower as they are key stakeholders in the exploration and research that will be uncovered by the submersible exploration. Florida Ocean Research organization Florida based installation All other individuals take the risk of trial and error and technical redundancy and ensuring their equipment, ingenuity, and programming all work and do not fail to put everything in danger when it is needed the most. HI-Tech ocean Engineering marine engineering Blue Sea Material Science Creators materials science IT your way Programming computer programming. Risk Identification The risk of the project for the oceanographic exploration within a submersible will include that of technical risk mitigation which will include the use of a redundancy system as well as contingency plans which will include the use of simulations to give real life scenarios for critical situations. It will also assure that the individuals piloting the unmanned submersible is prepared to handle unforeseen events and can be flexible and adapt to the scenarios. This will allow us to properly account for the later preparation of a manned submersible. 5 Creating equipment that is properly created and that can be validated from multiple points are key in the creation of the submersible. The creation of the submersible will include much data from many other fields which will include marine engineering, materials science, and computer programming. To begin the prototype won’t have to be designed to be suitable for human comfort. Instead, its objective is to demonstrate the challenges of traveling to such a deep place pressure issues and how the equipment holds up as it progresses deeper and deeper within the location. As the mission progresses it will be changing the goal to then provide a safe and comfortable environment for a crew. The risk management will include much research and study of previous cases of submersible exploration such as the Alvin which is one of the out of Woods Hole, MA (Zhang, 2021). Managing risk would include understanding the risk of exploration within the Bermuda Triangle. Thus far the deepest exploration within the Bermuda Was done on June 18, 2011, Brian Kakuk and Jill Heinerth who conducted the deepest manned SCUBA dive ever completed in Bermuda. These two explored the Bermuda not in a submersible but using equipment that looked more like a space suit than scuba gear. These two plunged to 444 feet. This dive can show this current exploration what can be expected within the journey within the Bermuda, Oxygen needs and if equipment may implode from high pressure. All information is necessary information (Heinerth,2011). A. Positive Opportunities 1. Primarily, the use of uncrewed systems will provide much more capabilities for underwater research and discovery. The unmanned exploration will allow exploration to be done at lower expenses and with no personal physical risk to humans. It will also 6 allow for the search , discovery and exploration of the seas over widely unexplored areas and bleak underwater areas. This will be done from a remote location where it will be piloted autonomously. This underwater submersible will provide explorers the capabilities before human exploration within a submersible (Mahmoudian, 2023) 2. A second positive opportunity that will later be explored with the exploration of a manned submersibles will involve providing humans the capabilities to make quick acting decisions and adapt to the physical exploration of the deep blue while employing the submersible. The new excitement of the exploration will be comparable to crewed space exploration, yet the exploration will now be of unexplored depths under the bodies of water within the earth (Mahmoudian, 2023) B. Negative Risk Below there will be listed 8 risk that can and will be accounted for with the project of the Blue Whale Exploration. The points will involve the use of autonomous exploration as well as the risk involved with manned exploration. Each point can stand on its own as well as be grouped together for one larger subcategory of risk whether it involve technical, nature, human error, or any other larger category. 1. The primary risk factor will involve that of nature as many Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes progress throughout the Bermuda Triangle making it a high traffic area to large storms and uneasy seas. The Bermuda Triangle has claimed many ships due to these severe storms and the wreckages can be explored. Yet, it is a large risk to the project. 7 Therefore, to assure the best interest to the project the use up-to-date forecasting tools will need to be used and to assure the safety of all members involved. (NOAA, 2024). 2. Secondly, a storm protocol will need to be enforced and safety protocols practiced. The use of weathering tools to forecast and to have a strong weathering team on board to monitor possibilities of storms and changes in weather forecasting as it may affect the area of the Bermuda. Therefore, the utilization of these standards to mitigate risk will help improve safety for all involved and have a storm protocol put into effect (NOAA, 2024). 3. Third another negative will involve the change in cost to switch from and autonomous submersible to a manned submersible with crew members. The change to a crewed team will be drastically more costly than that of the unmanned explorations. The increase in size of the submersible platform as well as the requirement for human life-support needs and underwater safety systems will surely alter prices. 4. Next another negative risk is to assure that the submersible is built adequately for the depth and changes that can occur while submersed. Submersibles are constructed to protect against the extreme pressures of the vast ocean. Therefore, it will require major structural integrity. The integrity will require for every, “33 feet (10.06 meters) of descent, the pressure increases by 1 atmosphere (14.6 psi or pounds per square inch). A depth of 1,000 meters is 100 atmospheres or 1460 psi. They are thus constructed using strong 8 materials that undergo controlled testing that follow rigorous engineering standards (Vincent, 2023).” 5. Next there will need to be risk protocols for negatives that could occur in the event that the structures integrity was to become compromised. As there will always be a possibility of issues arising with the structure of the submersible. Therefore, protocols must be established for damage f the structure or issue that occur due to unforeseen adventures. As well as equipment malfunction and failures that can also occur due to collision or other unforeseen events. These issues can be critical to the success of any voyage, so they have to be taken seriously (Vincent, 2023). 6. The sixth negative that could occur and risk is that of having sufficient and reliable life support systems to assure proper oxygenation and in the instance that personal should need to evacuate the submersible during dives. The systems will provide oxygenated air, temperature regulation, and other required provisions. (Vincent 2023). 7. The seventh negative that could occur and risk that need to be analyzed for is the requirement for technical safety requirements and protocols. The analysis will have to be for the submersibles emergency buoyancy systems, redundant power and life support systems, and communication devices. Training will be a mandated requirement for all crew members to handle unforeseen situations similar to crews that go out to space within those spacecrafts (Vincent, 2023). 8. The eighth negative and risk that will be evaluated includes crew preparation for all changes and issues that can occur. This will include the crew understanding how much 9 time they have to run evolutions in the event of structural damage, comm damage and every other damage that has been identified. As well as unforeseen events and how to estimate the amount of time that is required to fix the issue with minimal to no human loss and maintaining of the structural integrity to at least return to the surface in the event there is a loss of oxygen within the submersible. 10 Qualitative Risk Analysis using Risk Assessment Matrix Risk Assessment Matrix Severity Negligible- 1 Unlikely- 2 Marginal- 3 Critical-4 Catastophic-5 Risk is very unlikely to occur Risk is known to Risk does happen here Risk frequently occurs Risk routinely occurs here here; not addressed in case occur here in prior and is discussed in case here and are regularly example will be case studies submersible studies. Cases such as reported in case studies studies about the Trident strategies but were the Trident and Deep and articles for manned mitigated through Sea Challenger submersibles rapidly No known occurrences of risk High risk mitigation Risk mitigations are put Minimal risk mitigation Risk have occurred in other in previous manned or plans are well in in place and are plans in place; scenarios manned submersibles unmanned submersibles place; well exercised thoroughly set in place; planning put in place, yet scenarios different scenarios are individual and team tested from prior case building enforced for studies of failed unforeseen events attempts Risk is continuously and High team Harm during manned Minimal organizational or No organizational or local thoroughly mitigated management skills exploration is now local processes put in processes to address risk are practiced, and introduced place; risk mitigation is organizational organizational and handled by team within processes are in place submersible human submersible with comms to address risk with process are put in place to understand the protocol to secure safety processes and issues Redundant contingency and Contingency and Most contingency and Some contingencies or No contingency or management plans and management plans management plans are safety plans enforced suits management plans in maintained and followed refined and well put in place; moderate placed in submersibles for place; scenarios are exercised exercises practiced evacuation purposes with unforeseen, and it is adequate amounts of dependent on the team oxygen for survival submersed and if they can dependent of depth of work together to manage dive the catastrophic issues 11 Quantitative Risk Analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation The use of the Monte Carlo simulation will be used to assess the changes and variations of how the cost of the project can be altered. Once a plan and risk have been analyzed there can be controls enforced to maintain certain cost outcomes which were produced by the Risk analysis tool. The organization will maintain EVM to stay on task but due to the constant changing variation there will be a large area of variation depending on how things may have to change as milestones are hit. Risk Source Environmental Technical Cost Human External Factors Description Storms, and unforeseen water conditions can affect the conditions of the water when launching the submersible. Underwater eruptions and earthquakes or continental shifts will add risk to the unforeseen challenges that may occur. Also, the risk that putting a submersible underwater and how it will impact the waters natural habitats and algae conditions is other risk that must me analyzed. Redundancy risk especially during manned submersible missions, technical training of personal to do on-site maintenance of system and engineering. Innovative technologies, challenging operating conditions, logistic designs, technical assumptions, and uncertainties of design changes Cost may reach substantial changes from unmanned autonomous submersible to the manned submersible Human error is a major issue, Loss of human life, assured contingency plans and risk assessment and being able to properly assess condition when submersed in deep depths of the ocean Geopolitical conditions (how the submersible will affect the underwater terrain, and raw materials by introducing unnatural materials). Laws and regulations of the Bermuda, media portrayal, taxes local rules of the areas. 12 Risk Response Strategies For the Blue Whale Expedition, the Proactive Risk Response that is best to be used is the Avoid Response under the negative risk (threat) response strategy. This response is the response that is to be used because this expedition requires a proactive response strategy. It requires a strategy that finds a way to get rid of it the threat or in essence remove the threat. For this expedition we require a strategy that would find an alternative that will not generate risk. Yet, the knowledge that the absence of risk is impossible this strategy is best because it is in our best efforts to remove all risk for a safe expedition. This strategy normally involves removing work from the project scope to prevent the risk from ever happening. Thus, with this strategy we in essence will add contingency plans that will decrease damages and assist in the events of casualties. Theses contingencies will work simultaneous with the Avoid strategy for the underwater piloted adventure to ensure life is persevered and redundancy is maintained for all technical and mechanical equipment. In the process of the avoidance points will be implemented that assure the avoidance is properly implemented to assure proper strategic processing • Creation and the communication of policies • Implementation of practiced procedures • Redundancy and use of proper technology and mechanical systems to support the strategy. • Training underwater team to assure that they behave in risk-appropriate ways (Risk Optics, 2022) 13 Risk Monitoring and Control New risk that may occur include items not previously assessed for. Examples include unexpected death of crew members, change in Bermuda area and conditions, and technical and mechanical failures that were not previously planned for. Overall expected performance: The program will continue as planned. With this we will began to train secondaries in each position for the manned submersible expedition to assure a crew is on hand. The teams will work together so they are able to collaborate regardless of who is put in a scenario with another. This will assure for unified teamwork. The changes in the environment will constantly be monitored be the Florida weathering location to assure we are constantly aware of all environmental changes. This is to assure validity in the expedition. Adjustments will constantly be made to ensure the submersible has the most up-to-date technical and mechanical equipment that is understood by the team. Unexpected failures cannot be controlled but they can be expected, and we will have virtual capabilities to assist with trouble shooting needs implemented into the continuity plan. 14 Reference Heinerth, J. (2011) . Ocean Exploration. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/bermudatri.html#:~:text=The%20majority%20of%20 Atlantic%20tropical,sometimes%20violent%2C%20changes%20in%20weather. Johnson, T. (2023). Titan: lessons learned in risk management. Pirani. https://www.piranirisk.com/blog/titan-lessons-learned-in-risk-management Mahmoudian, N. (2023). Titan submersible disaster underscores dangers of deep-sea exploration- an engineer explains why most ocean science is conducted with crewless submarines. THE CONVERSTAION. https://theconversation.com/titan-submersibledisaster-underscores-dangers-of-deep-sea-exploration-an-engineer-explains-why-mostocean-science-is-conducted-with-crewless-submarines-208326 Risk Optics. (2022). Common Risk Management Strategies: Risk Avoidance vs. Risk Reduction. https://reciprocity.com/blog/risk-avoidance-vs-risk- reduction/#:~:text=Risk%20avoidance%20means%20completely%20eliminating,to%20a void%20their%20costly%20consequences. Zhang,B. (2021). Submersibles for Deep Sea Exploration. https://sites.tufts.edu/eeseniordesignhandbook/2015/submersibles-for-deep-seaexploration/ 15 16
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