Description
Watch the TED talk given by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita entitled Three predictions on the future of Iran. During this discussion, De Mesquita uses game theory to discuss the dynamics of interest aggregation and public policy formulation in Iran. De Mesquita then provides a prediction for where he believes Iran's policy will go. In a minimum of 500-550 words answer the following: 1) Do you believe mathematical models can assess how parties and interests groups are aggregated? 2) What do you feel are the strengths and weaknesses of De Mesquita's assessment? 3) What are your thoughts on Iran's future policies towards the West and nuclear weapons? Do you agree or disagree with De Mesquita's methodology?
Explanation & Answer
Attached.
Running Head: PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF IRAN
Predicting the Future of Iran
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PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF IRAN
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Do you believe mathematical models can assess how parties and interests groups are
aggregated?
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has applied mathematical models to analyze and predict a wide
array of events ranging from war to political shifts. However, although mathematical models are
effective at assessing how interests groups and parties are aggregated, these models alone cannot
give a precise analysis of how these parties are likely to be aggregated in the future. Although the
professor has built a computer model that can predict consequences of international conflicts
with incomprehensible accuracy, the success of this model is only possible with the help of
accurate knowledge of science and the appr...
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