# Managerial Accounting

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Question description

Use the data in the Excel file provided to forecast the demand of a particular product using various methods and time periods as noted below. NOTE: YOU MUST SHOW ALL YOUR WORK IN THE EXCEL FILE. MAKE SURE YOUR ANSWERS APPEAR IN THE WORKSHEET THAT IS NAMED “TEMPLATE.” YOU CAN CREATE NEW WORKSHEETS OR SHOW ADDITIONAL WORK IN THE WORKSHEET PROVIDED.

a. Prepare a time-series plot of the data. Does the data appear to have a trend or seasonality?

b. Use the naïve method to forecast the demand for the last three months of 2016.

c. Use the moving average method with 4 periods, i.e., MA(4), to forecast the monthly demand for January 2016 through December 2016.

d. Use the exponential smoothing method with a=0.4 to forecast the monthly demand for January 2016 through December 2016. Use the actual demand observed in January 2015 as your initial forecast for January 2015 (That is, start the model in January 2015.

e. Fit a trend line to the data provided for January 2015 to December 2015. Using the equation of the trend line you found, forecast the monthly demand for January 2016 through December 2016.

f. Compute the MAD for each method, that is, the Naïve, MA(4), ES(0.4), and the trend line during January 2016 to September 2016.

g. Choose one of the time-series methods you analyzed thus far which will provide you the most reliable estimate and why? What are the demand forecasts for the last three months of 2016 if this method is used?

FIRST NAME LAST NAME EMAIL Year 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 Month January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December Year Month 2015 January 2015 February 2015 March 2015 April 2015 May 2015 June 2015 July 2015 August 2015 September 2015 October 2015 November 2015 December 2016 January 2016 February 2016 March 2016 April Time series plot Demand 1560 1680 1710 1740 1680 1752 1680 1560 1650 1800 1860 1800 1530 1650 1620 1710 1680 1620 1530 1620 1560 to be forecast to be forecast to be forecast Demand 1560 1680 1710 1740 1680 1752 1680 1560 1650 1800 1860 1800 1530 1650 1620 1710 Paste your time series plot in this red area. Naïve Forecasts MA ES Trendline 2016 May 2016 June 2016 July 2016 August 2016 September 2016 October 2016 November 2016 December 1680 1620 1530 1620 1560 to be forecast to be forecast to be forecast Naïve MAD Forecasts MA ES Trendline e series plot

uoscar
School: University of Virginia

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Anonymous
Outstanding Job!!!!

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