Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA).

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timer Asked: Oct 17th, 2018
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Question Description

Public Information and Warning, Deliver coordinated, prompt, reliable, and actionable information to the whole community through the use of clear, consistent, accessible, and culturally and linguistically appropriate methods to effectively relay information regarding any threat or hazard, as well as the actions being taken and the assistance being made available, as appropriate.


https://www.fema.gov/core-capabilities

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Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Guide Comprehensive Preparedness Guide (CPG) 201 Second Edition August 2013 CPG 201: Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Guide—Second Edition Table of Contents Forward .......................................................................................................................... 1 Overview ........................................................................................................................ 1 THIRA Process.........................................................................................................................1 Relationship to Other Risk Assessments................................................................................2 Core Capabilities ......................................................................................................................2 National Preparedness System................................................................................................3 Whole Community Involvement.............................................................................................4 Updating Previous THIRAs ....................................................................................................5 Step 1: Identify the Threats and Hazards of Concern ................................................ 5 Types of Threats and Hazards ................................................................................................5 Sources of Threat and Hazard Information ..........................................................................6 Factors for Selecting Threats and Hazards ...........................................................................7 Step 1 Output............................................................................................................................8 Step 2: Give the Threats and Hazards Context ........................................................... 9 Context Description: Factors to Consider .............................................................................9 Examples of Context Descriptions ........................................................................................10 Step 2 Output..........................................................................................................................10 Step 3: Establish Capability Targets ......................................................................... 10 Impacts and Desired Outcomes ............................................................................................11 Developing Capability Targets .............................................................................................12 Example Capability Target ...................................................................................................14 Step 3 Output..........................................................................................................................14 Step 4: Apply the Results ........................................................................................... 14 Capability Estimation ............................................................................................................15 Resource Typing.....................................................................................................................16 Example of a Completed THIRA .........................................................................................18 i CPG 201: Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Guide—Second Edition Applying the THIRA Results to Resource Allocation Decisions and Preparedness Activities..................................................................................................................................18 Step 4 Output..........................................................................................................................20 Conclusion................................................................................................................... 20 Appendix A: THIRA Template .................................................................................. A-1 Appendix B: Glossary ............................................................................................... B-1 ii CPG 201: Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Guide—Second Edition Forward Comprehensive Preparedness Guide (CPG) 201, Second Edition provides communities additional guidance for conducting a Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA). The First Edition of this Guide (April 2012) presented the basic steps of the THIRA process. Specifically, the First Edition described a standard process for identifying communityspecific threats and hazards and setting capability targets for each core capability identified in the National Preparedness Goal as required in Presidential Policy Directive (PPD) 8: National Preparedness. 1 This Second Edition expands the THIRA process to include estimation of resources needed to meet the capability targets. The Second Edition also reflects other changes to the THIRA process based on stakeholder feedback, such as streamlining the number of steps to conduct a THIRA and providing additional examples. Where appropriate, this Guide highlights key changes from the First Edition of CPG 201. This Second Edition supersedes the First Edition of CPG 201. Overview Every community should understand the risks it faces. By understanding its risks, a community can make smart decisions about how to manage risk, including developing needed capabilities. Risk is the potential for an unwanted outcome resulting from an incident, event, or occurrence, as determined by its likelihood and the associated consequences. 2 By considering changes to these elements, a community can understand how to best manage and plan for its greatest risks across the full range of the threats and hazards it faces. The THIRA process helps communities identify capability targets and resource requirements necessary to address anticipated and unanticipated risks. T H I R A P ro c e s s This Guide describes a four-step process for developing a THIRA: 1. Identify the Threats and Hazards of Concern. Based on a combination of experience, forecasting, subject matter expertise, and other available resources, identify a list of the threats and hazards of primary concern to the community. 2. Give the Threats and Hazards Context. Describe the threats and hazards of concern, showing how they may affect the community. 3. Establish Capability Targets. Assess each threat and hazard in context to develop a specific capability target for each core capability identified in the National Preparedness Goal. The capability target defines success for the capability. 4. Apply the Results. For each core capability, estimate the resources required to achieve the capability targets through the use of community assets and mutual aid, while also considering preparedness activities, including mitigation opportunities. 1 For additional information on the National Preparedness Goal please visit http://www.fema.gov/nationalpreparedness. 2 DHS Risk Lexicon, June 2013. 1 CPG 201: Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Guide—Second Edition The THIRA process is flexible and scalable and will work for communities of all sizes. Communities can adapt these four steps, illustrated in Figure 1, to meet their specific needs and resources. Figure 1: The THIRA Process R el at i o n sh i p t o O t h e r Ri s k As s es sm en t s The THIRA process standardizes the risk analysis process that emergency managers and homeland security professionals use every day through the normal course of their work. The THIRA process builds on existing local, state, tribal, territorial Hazard Identification and Risk Assessments (HIRAs) by: Broadening the threats and hazards considered to include human-caused threats and technological hazards Incorporating the whole community into the planning process, including individuals; families; businesses; faith-based and community organizations; nonprofit groups; schools and academia; media outlets; and all levels of government, including local, state, tribal, territorial, and Federal partners Providing increased flexibility to account for community-specific factors. C o r e Cap ab i l i t i e s Communities use the core capabilities described in the National Preparedness Goal to organize their capability targets in the THIRA process (see Table 1). The core capabilities provide a common language for preparedness across the whole community. The core capabilities are relevant to all five preparedness mission areas: Prevention: Prevent, avoid, or stop an imminent, threatened, or actual act of terrorism. Protection: Protect our citizens, residents, visitors, and assets against the greatest threats and hazards in a manner that allows our interests, aspirations, and way of life to thrive. Mitigation: Reduce the loss of life and property by lessening the impact of future disasters. Response: Respond quickly to save lives; protect property and the environment; and meet basic human needs in the aftermath of a catastrophic incident. 2 CPG 201: Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Guide—Second Edition Recovery: Recover through a focus on the timely restoration, strengthening, and revitalization of infrastructure, housing, and a sustainable economy, as well as the health, social, cultural, historic, and environmental fabric of communities affected by a catastrophic incident. Table 1: Core Capabilities by Mission Area 3 Prevention Protection Mitigation Response Recovery Planning Public Information and Warning Operational Coordination Forensics and Attribution Intelligence and Information Sharing Interdiction and Disruption Screening, Search, and Detection Access Control and Identity Verification Cybersecurity Intelligence and Information Sharing Interdiction and Disruption Physical Protective Measures Risk Management for Protection Programs and Activities Screening, Search, and Detection Supply Chain Integrity and Security Community Resilience Long-term Vulnerability Reduction Risk and Disaster Resilience Assessment Threats and Hazard Identification Critical Transportation Environmental Response/ Health and Safety Fatality Management Services Infrastructure Systems Mass Care Services Mass Search and Rescue Operations On-scene Security and Protection Operational Communications Public and Private Services and Resources Public Health and Medical Services Situational Assessment Economic Recovery Health and Social Services Housing Infrastructure Systems Natural and Cultural Resources N a t i o n al P rep a red n es s S y st em The National Preparedness System is the instrument the Nation employs to build, sustain, and deliver the core capabilities in order to achieve the goal of a secure and resilient Nation. Figure 2 illustrates the six components of the National Preparedness System. 4 3 Planning, Public Information and Warning, and Operational Coordination are core capabilities common to all mission areas. 4 For additional information on the National Preparedness System please visit http://www.fema.gov/nationalpreparedness. 3 CPG 201: Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Guide—Second Edition Figure 2: Components of the National Preparedness System The THIRA process supports the first two components of the National Preparedness System: 1. Identifying and Assessing Risk 2. Estimating Capability Requirements. The THIRA process helps communities answer the following questions: What does the community need to prepare for? What resources are required in order to be prepared? What actions (e.g., mitigation activities) could be employed to lessen or eliminate the threat or hazard? What impacts need to be incorporated into the community’s recovery preparedness planning? The results of the THIRA process form the foundation for subsequent National Preparedness System activities. W h o l e C o m m u n i t y I n vo l v e m e n t Developing an effective THIRA requires active involvement from the whole community. Recognizing that preparedness is a shared responsibility, the National Preparedness System calls for the involvement of everyone—not just government agencies—in preparedness efforts. When developing and updating THIRAs, jurisdictions should ensure their assessment and planning effort includes representatives and perspectives of the whole community. An informed public is the best advocate for building and sustaining required capabilities and creating a secure and resilient community. Experience from the first year of THIRA implementation shows the importance of whole community involvement. THIRAs developed with whole community involvement are more comprehensive and measurable. 4 CPG 201: Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Guide—Second Edition U p d a t i n g P re vi o u s T HI R A s When reviewing, revising, or updating an existing THIRA, jurisdictions should examine the success and/or limitations of previous whole community engagement. In particular, jurisdictions should assess whether partners representing the five preparedness mission areas and 31 core capabilities participated. Communities are encouraged to engage representatives from different homeland security and public safety disciplines and from outside government. For each subsequent THIRA update, communities should also review how the threat and hazard landscape has changed. In particular, consider the inclusion of new or emerging threats and hazards, to include future risks (Step 1); updating threat and hazard context descriptions based on demographic factors (Step 2); and revising capability targets based on current capability levels (Step 3). Communities should refine resource requirements (Step 4) based on changes made in previous steps and review how successful preparedness measures, such as protection or mitigation efforts, affect their THIRAs. Step 1: Identify the Threats and Hazards of Concern In Step 1 of the THIRA process, communities develop a list of community-specific threats and hazards. This section: Defines the types of threats and hazards that communities should consider Introduces sources of threat and hazard information Describes factors to consider when selecting threats and hazards for inclusion in the THIRA Provides guidance on updating previous THIRA submissions. Figure 3: Step 1 of the THIRA Process T yp e s o f T h r e at s a n d H az a rd s Communities face a variety of threats and hazards. The three types of threats and hazards are: Natural hazards, which result from acts of nature, such as hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, animal disease outbreak, pandemics, or epidemics. 5 CPG 201: Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Guide—Second Edition Technological hazards, which result from accidents or the failures of systems and structures, such as hazardous materials spills or dam failures. Human-caused incidents, which result from the intentional actions of an adversary, such as a threatened or actual chemical attack, biological attack, or cyber incident. Table 2 provides examples of each type of threats and hazards. Table 2: Example Threats and Hazards Natural Avalanche Animal disease outbreak Drought Earthquake Epidemic Flood Hurricane Landslide Pandemic Tornado Tsunami Volcanic eruption Wildfire Technological Airplane crash Dam failure Levee failure Mine accident Hazardous materials release Power failure Radiological release Train derailment Human-caused Biological attack Chemical attack Cyber incident Explosives attack Radiological attack Sabotage School and workplace violence Urban conflagration Winter storm S o u r ce s o f T h r e at an d H a z ard I n f o r m at i o n Communities should consult a number of sources to identify threats and hazards during the THIRA process. These sources may include: State and local homeland security and emergency management laws, plans, policies, and procedures Existing threat and hazard assessments (e.g., HIRAs) Records from previous incidents, including historical data Local, regional, and neighboring community THIRAs Analysis of critical infrastructure interdependencies, including disruptions and failures that may originate elsewhere but produce cascading effects experienced locally (e.g., an electrical power disruption that spreads both geographically and across sectors) Intelligence fusion center bulletins and assessments Whole community partners, such as: 6 • Emergency management/homeland security agencies • Local and state hazard mitigation offices • Local or Regional National Weather Service offices CPG 201: Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Guide—Second Edition • Tribal governments • Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Regional Offices • Private-sector partners • Local/state fire, police, emergency medical services, and health departments • Major urban area and state fusion centers • Infrastructure owners and operators • U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Protective Security Advisors • DHS Regional Cyber Security Analysts • Volunteer Organizations Active in Disasters • Colleges/universities, and other research organizations. Additional Online Sources of Threat and Hazard Information National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres (http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/aloha) DHS OneView (https://gii.dhs.gov/OneView) FEMA Hazus-MH (http://www.fema.gov/hazus) FEMA Hurrevac (http://www.hurrevac.com) U.S. Department of Energy LandScan (http://web.ornl.gov/sci/landscan) National Weather Service Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/slosh.php) NOAA Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Viewer (http://csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/slrviewer) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Debris Model (http://eportal.usace.army.mil/sites/ENGLink/DebrisManagement/default.aspx) FEMA Full-Spectrum Risk Knowledgebase (https://riskknowledge.fema.gov) FEMA Lessons Learned Information Sharing (https://www.llis.dhs.gov) F ac t o r s f o r S e l e c t i n g T h r e a t s a n d H a z a r d s Communities should include only those threats and hazards of significant concern in their THIRA. To identify threats and hazards of significant concern, consider two key factors: likelihood of incident and significance of threat/hazard effects. Factor #1: Likelihood of Incident Likelihood is the chance of something happening, whether defined, measured, or estimated objectively or subjectively. Communities should consider only those threats and hazards that could plausibly occur. As a starting point, communities should consider the threats and hazards that have historically affected them, as well as those threats and hazards that exist regardless of historical occurrence (e.g., earthquakes, industrial accidents, or intelligence-driven assessments of potential terrorist attacks). This should include analyzing after-action reports and information about the root causes of threats and hazards (e.g., major floods caused by inadequate levees), as well as consultation 7 CPG 201: Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Guide—Second Edition with scientists and appropriate subject matter experts. Communities may also consider looking at historical archives (e.g., at the local library) for reports of disasters in the community. For threats and hazards for which it is difficult to estimate the likelihood of an incident (e.g., terrorism), communities should consider available intelligence data to determine inclusion in the THIRA. Engaging state/local law enforcement or a major urban area or state fusion center can provide the necessary insight into these types of events in order to focus on plausible ...
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