Decision Trees

Anonymous
timer Asked: Oct 18th, 2018
account_balance_wallet $40

Question Description

Hi There,

Please, i need your help with the below assignment. No need for “Executive Summary” just start with introduction, please.

The supplement to Chapter 5 in your textbook describes and develops several decision trees. In a 4-5-page paper, not including the cover and reference pages, develop a decision tree for a work or personal decision that you must make. Explain the process of developing a decision tree, and your specific case. You must have at least three Decision Points, and three Chance Events. As shown in the Risk Precis video in your module lecture, make sure to parameterize the outcomes, determine the expected value, and defend your final decision based on your decision tree.

Free decision tree software is available to help you construct your decision tree:

Be sure to use at least two current, scholarly references beyond any required course readings. Current sources are those published within the most recent five-year period, and scholarly sources are those from peer-reviewed journals.


This assignment needed to be on 6 pages length with APA style, at lest 10 reference with last 3 years.

Unformatted Attachment Preview

MGT530 Critical Thinking Writing Rubric - Module 6 Exceeds Expectation Content, Research, and Analysis 21-25 Points Requirements Exceeds Expectation Includes all of the required components, as specified in the assignment. 21-25 Points Content Exceeds Expectation Demonstrates substantial and extensive knowledge of the materials, with no errors or major omissions. 25-30 Points Analysis Exceeds Expectation Provides strong thought, insight, and analysis of concepts and applications. 13-15 Points Sources Exceeds Expectation Sources go above and beyond required criteria, and are well chosen to provide effective substance and perspectives on the issue under examination. Mechanics and Writing 5 Points Demonstrates Exceeds college-level Expectation proficiency in Project is clearly Meets Expectation Below Expectation Limited Evidence 16-20 Points Meets Expectation - Includes most of the required components, as specified in the assignment. 11-15 Points Below Expectation - Includes some of the required components, as specified in the assignment. 6-10 Points Limited Evidence Includes few of the required components, as specified in the assignment. 16-20 Points Meets Expectation - Demonstrates adequate knowledge of the materials; may include some minor errors or omissions. 11-15 Points Below Expectation - Demonstrates fair knowledge of the materials and/or includes some major errors or omissions. 6-10 Points Limited Evidence Fails to demonstrate knowledge of the materials and/or includes many major errors or omissions. 19-24 Points Meets Expectation - Provides adequate thought, insight, and analysis of concepts and applications. 10-12 Points Meets Expectation - Sources meet required criteria and are adequately chosen to provide substance and perspectives on the issue under examination. 13-18 Points Below Expectation - Provides poor thought, insight, and analysis of concepts and applications. 7-12 Points Limited Evidence Provides little or no thought, insight, and analysis of concepts and applications. 7-9 Points Below Expectation - Sources meet required criteria, but are poorly chosen to provide substance and perspectives on the issue under examination. 4-6 Points Limited Evidence Source selection and integration of knowledge from the course is clearly deficient. 4 Points Meets Expectation - Project is fairly well organized and 3 Points Below Expectation - Project is poorly organized and 1-2 Points Limited Evidence Project is not organized or well MGT530 Critical Thinking Writing Rubric - Module 6 organization, grammar and style. organized, well written, and in proper format as outlined in the assignment. Strong sentence and paragraph structure; contains no errors in grammar, spelling, APA style, or APA citations and references. Total points possible = 100 written, and is in proper format as outlined in the assignment. Reasonably good sentence and paragraph structure; may include a few minor errors in grammar, spelling, APA style, or APA citations and references. written, and may not follow proper format as outlined in the assignment. Inconsistent to inadequate sentence and paragraph development, and/or includes numerous or major errors in grammar, spelling, APA style, or APA citations and references. written, and is not in proper format as outlined in the assignment. Poor quality work; unacceptable in terms of grammar, spelling, APA style, and APA citations and references. 10/12/2018 MGT530 – Operations Management MGT530 – Operations Management Reliability and Decision Theory Module Introduction Readings Note: The following readings may require you to be logged in to the Saudi Digital Library. You may do that here (https://lms.seu.edu.sa/bbcswebdav/xid-27610786_1). Required Supplements to Chapters 4 & 5 in Operations Management. Chapter 4 PowerPoint slides (https://lms.seu.edu.sa/bbcswebdav/courses/MGT-530MASTER/Presentations/Stevenson_13e_Chapter_04.pptx) – Operations Management. Chapter 5 PowerPoint slides (https://lms.seu.edu.sa/bbcswebdav/courses/MGT-530MASTER/Presentations/Stevenson_13e_Chapter_05.pptx) – Operations Management. Jiao, L., Pan, Q., Liang, Y., Feng, X., & Yang, F. (2016). Combining sources of evidence with reliability and importance for decision making (https://link-springercom.sdl.idm.oclc.org/article/10.1007%2Fs10100-013-0334-3). Central European Journal of Operations Research, 24(1), 87-106. Nowak, M. (2017). Defining project approach using decision tree and quasi-hierarchical multiple criteria method (http://www.sciencedirect.com.sdl.idm.oclc.org/science/article/pii/S1877705817306318). Procedia Engineering, 172, 791-799. For Your Success In this module, the mathematical properties of reliability and the nature of decision theory as it relates to the operation of an organization will be examined. This Week: Complete the Critical Thinking Assignment. You will create a decision tree for a work or personal decision. Complete the graded quiz, covering Modules 5 and 6. Learning Outcomes https://lms.seu.edu.sa/webapps/blackboard/execute/content/file?cmd=view&content_id=_3259043_1&course_id=_43144_1&framesetWrapped=true 1. Define reliability and decision theory. 1/7 1. Define reliability and decision theory. 10/12/2018 MGT530 – Operations Management 2. Perform simple reliability computations. 3. Describe the different environments under which operations decisions are made. 4. Describe techniques that apply to decision-making under uncertainty. 5. Apply the expected value approach. 6. Apply sensitivity analysis. 1. Reliability A product, service, part, or system is considered reliable when it does what is intended given the conditions for which it was made (Stevenson, 2018). If there is a 90% probability that a product works as intended, we would be describing its reliability. That means that 10% of the time, or one in 10 times, the product would fail. Is that 90% level of reliability acceptable? In some cases, it may be, depending on the item’s importance or cost, while in other cases a 90% reliability would not be acceptable. In the case of the spring in a retractable ball point pen, we might find that a 10% failure rate is acceptable if the pen is inexpensive. Still, in the case of a Mont Blanc (http://www.montblanc.com/) pen, a reliability of 90% for any part may be unacceptable. In determining reliability, we focus on either one point in time, or length of service (Stevenson, 2018). The one point in time case is often referred to as the probability of functioning when activated. We might think of a light bulb for the one point in time case, because we want the light to function properly when activated to do so. With this type of occurrence, where we must have light every time it is required, we might design the product so that there is redundancy with backup light bulbs to increase reliability. View this video about redundancy and resiliency. Understanding Redundancy vs Resiliency: Physical Design (Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEWEFwZfOVU) https://lms.seu.edu.sa/webapps/blackboard/execute/content/file?cmd=view&content_id=_3259043_1&course_id=_43144_1&framesetWrapped=true 2/7 10/12/2018 MGT530 – Operations Management From a physical perspective, the video explains the difference between redundancy and resiliency. We can calculate the reliability of three light bulbs in a product functioning when activated with probabilities of 90%, 80%, and 70% using the following formula: 1 – [(1 – 0.90) X (1 – 0.80) X (1 – 0.70)] = 0.994 or 99.4% reliability View this video example on calculating reliability: OM Calculation: Reliability (Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oItz2M-xgWk) Considers how reliability is calculated. Your required reading by Jiao, Pan, Liang, Feng, and Yang (2016) proposed the use of a combination of sources of evidence with both reliability and importance. Length of service is a second situation where reliability is important in operations management. You can https://lms.seu.edu.sa/webapps/blackboard/execute/content/file?cmd=view&content_id=_3259043_1&course_id=_43144_1&framesetWrapped=true 3/7 think of this type of reliability as related to product warranties. Product failures are calculated over time 10/12/2018 MGT530 – Operations Management to determine a typical profile. The mean time between failures (MTBF) calculation takes into account the average length of time between failures. We find that MTBF follows a curve where new components have a higher failure rate (infant mortality), than products that have been functioning for a while. Toward the end of a product’s life due to wearing out, MTBF increases again. The curve is described as resembling a bathtub. Click to enlarge (Source: Stevenson, 2018, p. 177) 2. Decisions and Decision Trees The decisions that operations managers make are dependent on reliability data that help them select alternatives to fix problems in the organization. Decision theory is dependent on a formal process as shown below. Download Transcript (media/SEU_MGT530_Interactive_Mod06_P02.pdf) View more about decision theory in this video tutorial. Decision Theory Basics (Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7HEKtockRs) https://lms.seu.edu.sa/webapps/blackboard/execute/content/file?cmd=view&content_id=_3259043_1&course_id=_43144_1&framesetWrapped=true 4/7 10/12/2018 MGT530 – Operations Management Several basic decision theory techniques are highlighted in this tutorial. Sometimes it is easier to visualize alternatives and the impact of what one decision means for processes and systems downstream than it is to rely on calculations that do not capture consequences. Decision trees are an excellent way of capturing both the possible alternatives and the consequences. Decision trees can be coupled with the expected monetary value of an alternative, making the graphical representation of the decisions and alternatives easier to evaluate. Click to enlarge (Source: Stevenson, 2018, p. 226) View the following video to learn more about decision trees in risk analysis. Using Decision Trees for Risk Analysis (Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f5I99Q9hwY) https://lms.seu.edu.sa/webapps/blackboard/execute/content/file?cmd=view&content_id=_3259043_1&course_id=_43144_1&framesetWrapped=true 5/7 10/12/2018 MGT530 – Operations Management Review the decision tree in the required reading by Nowak, 2017. You will have an opportunity to show your understanding of decision trees in your written assignment this week. 3. Uncertainty and Sensitivity The different environments under which operations decisions are made involve cases where relevant information is known, which is known as certainty, and cases where it is impossible to determine the likelihood of an event occurring, which is referred to as uncertainty. In cases where the probability of an event occurring can be determined, risk can be evaluated. Let’s take a closer look at these environmental scenarios: Certain Alternatives Uncertain Alternatives If acting in a case where future alternatives are certain, decisions are simple: You choose the best alternative using the criteria defined in the decision theory process. Explore https://lms.seu.edu.sa/webapps/blackboard/execute/content/file?cmd=view&content_id=_3259043_1&course_id=_43144_1&framesetWrapped=true 6/7 10/12/2018 MGT530 – Operations Management Click on the following link to learn more about decisions analysis – Operations Management 101: Introduction to Decision Analysis (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hy48AFKEepo). Check Your Understanding Test your knowledge of some of the key terms covered in this module. Check Your Understanding Click Here to Begin References Liang, Y., Feng, X., & Yang, F. (2016, Mar). Combining sources of evidence with reliability and importance for decision making. Central European Journal of Operations Research, 24(1), 87106. Nowak, M. (2017). Defining project approach using decision tree and quasi-hierarchical multiple criteria method. Procedia Engineering, 172, 791-799. Retrieved from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877705817306318 Stevenson, W. (2018). Operations management (13th ed.). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin. https://lms.seu.edu.sa/webapps/blackboard/execute/content/file?cmd=view&content_id=_3259043_1&course_id=_43144_1&framesetWrapped=true 7/7 ...
Purchase answer to see full attachment

Tutor Answer

Chancellor_Ivy
School: University of Maryland

Attached.

Running Head: DECISION TREES

1

Decision Trees
Institutional Affiliation
Date

DECISION TREES

2

Introduction
A decision tree is a tool for the support that uses a graph that looks like a tree. The
model of decisions presents the possible outcomes or consequence of a decision, including
the chance event outcomes, the utility and the costs of the resources. The effects in the
decision tree refer to the different results in which a decision may turn up. The chance
outcome events are the number of ways in which an event can occur. For example, in a Yes
or NO situation, the answer can either be yes or no. The resource cost refers to the various
inputs that are used to perform the activities. They could also be regarded as economic
elements (Kingsford, 2008). They include equipment, technologies, supplies, and salaries.
Then there is utility, which is a way of accounting for the risk tolerance of a decision maker.
Pros and Cons of using decision trees
When one uses a decision tree the consequences faced may either be positive or
negative. The advantages of using a decision tree are that they can easily be understood and
interpreted even when not given an elaborate explanation. They are always valuable even
when they do not have a lot of data. The insights can be demonstrated more by the experts
when they describe the situations and the outcomes, especially in workplace setups. Decision
trees are also an excellent way to determine the worst and the best ways in which a situation
can turn out. It is easier for a person to use a white box model if the model has been provided.
Since a person or an organization can use other decision techniques, it is easier to combine
them with the decisions of the decision tree (Cleme...

flag Report DMCA
Review

Anonymous
Excellent job

Similar Questions
Related Tags

Brown University





1271 Tutors

California Institute of Technology




2131 Tutors

Carnegie Mellon University




982 Tutors

Columbia University





1256 Tutors

Dartmouth University





2113 Tutors

Emory University





2279 Tutors

Harvard University





599 Tutors

Massachusetts Institute of Technology



2319 Tutors

New York University





1645 Tutors

Notre Dam University





1911 Tutors

Oklahoma University





2122 Tutors

Pennsylvania State University





932 Tutors

Princeton University





1211 Tutors

Stanford University





983 Tutors

University of California





1282 Tutors

Oxford University





123 Tutors

Yale University





2325 Tutors