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Econometrics Solution, statistics homework help
*** You can use any statis tic software to solve (SPSS, Eviews, R...)*** The result of each problem must contain RESULT TA ...
Econometrics Solution, statistics homework help
*** You can use any statis tic software to solve (SPSS, Eviews, R...)*** The result of each problem must contain RESULT TABLE (from the software) and EXPLANATION (Short or long)*** The data file is in .xls form (Excel needed)Background A good understanding of the macroeconomic cycle with alternating recession and expansion periods (also known as the business cycle) is important for various decision makers. Macroeconomic policy is often based on predictions of this cycle, and such predictions can influence investment decisions of large companies. Central banks and other institutions often publish so-called leading indicators that are helpful to predict the state of the economy. These indicators are based on macroeconomic series like job formation, interest rates, credit, demand, and supply. In this case project you will predict GDP growth by using quarterly data on a hypothetical economy from 1950 quarter 1 to 2015 quarter 4. The data set contains the GDP of the economy and two leading indicators li1 and li2. In order to evaluate the predictive performance of econometric models, you need to split the data in two parts. As estimation sample you take the period from 1951 to 2010 (240 observations), and as evaluation sample you take the period from 2011 to 2015 (20 observations). The first year of data (1950) is used only to create lags of variables. The project consists of two parts. In the first part (a-c) you use logit models to predict whether the economic situation improves or declines, and in the second part (d-g) you use time series models to predict the size of the growth rate of the economy.Data The data file Case GDP contains the following variables: • DATE: Date of the observation; • GDP: Gross Domestic Product of the economy; • GDPIMPR: dummy variable indicating whether the GDP has increased (1) or decreased (0); • LOGGDP: Log of Gross Domestic Product; • GrowthRate: Relative growth of the economy: GrowthRatet = log(GDPt ) − log(GDPt−1); • li1: First leading indicator; • li2: Second leading indicator; • T: Linear trend (where the first observation, for 1950 quarter 1, is defined as 0).(a) The table below summarizes the outcomes of four logit models to explain the direction of economic development (GDPIMPR) for the period 1951 to 2010. Perform three Likelihood Ratio tests to prove both the individual and the joint significance of the 1-quarter lags of li1 and li2, where the alternative hypothesis is always the model with both indicators included. (Please see image name TABLE 1)b) It could be that the leading indicators lead the economy by more than 1 quarter. The table below summarizes outcomes of four logit models that differ in the lags of the indicators. For what reason can we use McFadden R2 to select the best lag structure among these four models? Compute the four values of McFadden R2 (with four decimals) and conclude which model is optimal according to this criterion. (Please see image name TABLE 2)(c) Use the logit model 3 of part (b) (with li1(-2) and li2(-1)) to calculate the predicted probability of economic growth for each of the 20 quarters of the evaluation sample. Assess the predictive performance by means of the prediction-realization table and the hit rate, using a cut-off value of 0.5. Evaluate the outcomes.(d) Perform the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test on LOGGDP to confirm that this variable is not stationary. Use only the data in the estimation sample and include constant, trend, and a single lag in the test equation (L = 1, see Lecture 6.4). Present the coefficients of the test regression and the relevant test statistic, and state your conclusion.(e) Consider the following model: GrowthRatet = α + ρGrowthRatet−1 + β1li1t−k1 + β2li2t−k2 + εt . Here the numbers k1 and k2 denote the lag orders of the leading indicators. Estimate four versions of this model on the estimation sample from 1951 to 2010, by setting k1 and k2 equal to either 1 or 2. Show that the model with k1 = k2 = 1 gives the largest value for R2, and present the four coefficients of this model in six decimals. (f) Perform the Breusch-Godfrey test for first-order residual serial correlation for the model in part (e) with k1 = k2 = 1. Does the test outcome signal misspecification of the model?(g) Use the model in part (e) with k1 = k2 = 1 to generate a set of twenty one-step-ahead predictions for the growth rates in each quarter of the period 2011 to 2015. Note that the required values of the lagged leading indicators are available for each of these forecasts. Calculate the root mean squared error of these forecasts and present a time series graph of the predictions and the actual growth rates.
Qualitative Research
For this assignment, you will explore the foundations and history of qualitative research methods.You also will consider t ...
Qualitative Research
For this assignment, you will explore the foundations and history of qualitative research methods.You also will consider the unique characteristics that distinguish qualitative research from other forms of inquiry.To prepare for this Assignment:Consider the statement: Qualitative researchers study people in their natural settings, attempting to make sense of phenomena in terms of the meanings people bring to them.Expand on this simple statement. In 4–5 paragraphs.Explain several dimensions of this paradigm that make qualitative research interesting and unique.Be sure to use the terminology you are learning (including but not limited to “phenomena”, “constructivist,” and “naturalistic”), and provide historical context.
7 pages
Assignment.edited
In conducting a statistical examination, one-way ANOVA is among the commonly used mathematical test to test hypothetical s ...
Assignment.edited
In conducting a statistical examination, one-way ANOVA is among the commonly used mathematical test to test hypothetical statements. ...
BUS 352 GCU Descriptive Statistics and Random Integer Value Analysis
The Excel function =RANDBETWEEN(a,b) generates a random integer value between a and b. Open Excel. Copy and paste the Exce ...
BUS 352 GCU Descriptive Statistics and Random Integer Value Analysis
The Excel function =RANDBETWEEN(a,b) generates a random integer value between a and b. Open Excel. Copy and paste the Excel function into 30 cells (rows) starting at Column A at A1. Create 30 random values between 0 and 7 to simulate the response to the question, “How many times have you dined out in the past week?” Note: Once you have your 30 random values in Column A, select all values, copy the values, and use “Paste Special - Values” to Column B starting at B1. This will keep the spreadsheet from recalculating and changing your results.
Use Excel’s Data Analysis Tool Add-in to generate the Descriptive Statistics Summary Table for the values in Column B (as demonstrated in Section 3.2 of the text). Also use Excel’s Chart tools (as discussed in Section 3.4 of the text) to generate a box plot on the 30 responses. Comment on the measures and shape of the distribution. Do the measures and shape represent what you would expect based on randomly determined values? Why or why not? Include the data set of the 30 random values and your output in your response. Provide references (Refer to Chapter 3 Review: Supplementary Exercises 62 in the Chapter 3 topic Resources in Essentials of Modern Business Statistics With Microsoft Office Excel in MindTap).
Evaluating Significance of Findings
Part of your task as a scholar-practitioner is to act as a critical consumer of research and ask informed questions of pub ...
Evaluating Significance of Findings
Part of your task as a scholar-practitioner is to act as a critical consumer of research and ask informed questions of published material. Sometimes, claims are made that do not match the results of the analysis. Unfortunately, this is why statistics is sometimes unfairly associated with telling lies. These misalignments might not be solely attributable to statistical nonsense, but also “user error.” One of the greatest areas of user error is within the practice of hypothesis testing and interpreting statistical significance. As you continue to consume research, be sure and read everything with a critical eye and call out statements that do not match the results.For this Assignment, you will examine statistical significance and meaningfulness based on sample statements.For this Assignment:Critically evaluate the two scenarios you selected based upon the following points:Critically evaluate the sample size.Critically evaluate the statements for meaningfulness.Critically evaluate the statements for statistical significance.Based on your evaluation, provide an explanation of the implications for social change.Use proper APA format and citations, and referencing.
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Econometrics Solution, statistics homework help
*** You can use any statis tic software to solve (SPSS, Eviews, R...)*** The result of each problem must contain RESULT TA ...
Econometrics Solution, statistics homework help
*** You can use any statis tic software to solve (SPSS, Eviews, R...)*** The result of each problem must contain RESULT TABLE (from the software) and EXPLANATION (Short or long)*** The data file is in .xls form (Excel needed)Background A good understanding of the macroeconomic cycle with alternating recession and expansion periods (also known as the business cycle) is important for various decision makers. Macroeconomic policy is often based on predictions of this cycle, and such predictions can influence investment decisions of large companies. Central banks and other institutions often publish so-called leading indicators that are helpful to predict the state of the economy. These indicators are based on macroeconomic series like job formation, interest rates, credit, demand, and supply. In this case project you will predict GDP growth by using quarterly data on a hypothetical economy from 1950 quarter 1 to 2015 quarter 4. The data set contains the GDP of the economy and two leading indicators li1 and li2. In order to evaluate the predictive performance of econometric models, you need to split the data in two parts. As estimation sample you take the period from 1951 to 2010 (240 observations), and as evaluation sample you take the period from 2011 to 2015 (20 observations). The first year of data (1950) is used only to create lags of variables. The project consists of two parts. In the first part (a-c) you use logit models to predict whether the economic situation improves or declines, and in the second part (d-g) you use time series models to predict the size of the growth rate of the economy.Data The data file Case GDP contains the following variables: • DATE: Date of the observation; • GDP: Gross Domestic Product of the economy; • GDPIMPR: dummy variable indicating whether the GDP has increased (1) or decreased (0); • LOGGDP: Log of Gross Domestic Product; • GrowthRate: Relative growth of the economy: GrowthRatet = log(GDPt ) − log(GDPt−1); • li1: First leading indicator; • li2: Second leading indicator; • T: Linear trend (where the first observation, for 1950 quarter 1, is defined as 0).(a) The table below summarizes the outcomes of four logit models to explain the direction of economic development (GDPIMPR) for the period 1951 to 2010. Perform three Likelihood Ratio tests to prove both the individual and the joint significance of the 1-quarter lags of li1 and li2, where the alternative hypothesis is always the model with both indicators included. (Please see image name TABLE 1)b) It could be that the leading indicators lead the economy by more than 1 quarter. The table below summarizes outcomes of four logit models that differ in the lags of the indicators. For what reason can we use McFadden R2 to select the best lag structure among these four models? Compute the four values of McFadden R2 (with four decimals) and conclude which model is optimal according to this criterion. (Please see image name TABLE 2)(c) Use the logit model 3 of part (b) (with li1(-2) and li2(-1)) to calculate the predicted probability of economic growth for each of the 20 quarters of the evaluation sample. Assess the predictive performance by means of the prediction-realization table and the hit rate, using a cut-off value of 0.5. Evaluate the outcomes.(d) Perform the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test on LOGGDP to confirm that this variable is not stationary. Use only the data in the estimation sample and include constant, trend, and a single lag in the test equation (L = 1, see Lecture 6.4). Present the coefficients of the test regression and the relevant test statistic, and state your conclusion.(e) Consider the following model: GrowthRatet = α + ρGrowthRatet−1 + β1li1t−k1 + β2li2t−k2 + εt . Here the numbers k1 and k2 denote the lag orders of the leading indicators. Estimate four versions of this model on the estimation sample from 1951 to 2010, by setting k1 and k2 equal to either 1 or 2. Show that the model with k1 = k2 = 1 gives the largest value for R2, and present the four coefficients of this model in six decimals. (f) Perform the Breusch-Godfrey test for first-order residual serial correlation for the model in part (e) with k1 = k2 = 1. Does the test outcome signal misspecification of the model?(g) Use the model in part (e) with k1 = k2 = 1 to generate a set of twenty one-step-ahead predictions for the growth rates in each quarter of the period 2011 to 2015. Note that the required values of the lagged leading indicators are available for each of these forecasts. Calculate the root mean squared error of these forecasts and present a time series graph of the predictions and the actual growth rates.
Qualitative Research
For this assignment, you will explore the foundations and history of qualitative research methods.You also will consider t ...
Qualitative Research
For this assignment, you will explore the foundations and history of qualitative research methods.You also will consider the unique characteristics that distinguish qualitative research from other forms of inquiry.To prepare for this Assignment:Consider the statement: Qualitative researchers study people in their natural settings, attempting to make sense of phenomena in terms of the meanings people bring to them.Expand on this simple statement. In 4–5 paragraphs.Explain several dimensions of this paradigm that make qualitative research interesting and unique.Be sure to use the terminology you are learning (including but not limited to “phenomena”, “constructivist,” and “naturalistic”), and provide historical context.
7 pages
Assignment.edited
In conducting a statistical examination, one-way ANOVA is among the commonly used mathematical test to test hypothetical s ...
Assignment.edited
In conducting a statistical examination, one-way ANOVA is among the commonly used mathematical test to test hypothetical statements. ...
BUS 352 GCU Descriptive Statistics and Random Integer Value Analysis
The Excel function =RANDBETWEEN(a,b) generates a random integer value between a and b. Open Excel. Copy and paste the Exce ...
BUS 352 GCU Descriptive Statistics and Random Integer Value Analysis
The Excel function =RANDBETWEEN(a,b) generates a random integer value between a and b. Open Excel. Copy and paste the Excel function into 30 cells (rows) starting at Column A at A1. Create 30 random values between 0 and 7 to simulate the response to the question, “How many times have you dined out in the past week?” Note: Once you have your 30 random values in Column A, select all values, copy the values, and use “Paste Special - Values” to Column B starting at B1. This will keep the spreadsheet from recalculating and changing your results.
Use Excel’s Data Analysis Tool Add-in to generate the Descriptive Statistics Summary Table for the values in Column B (as demonstrated in Section 3.2 of the text). Also use Excel’s Chart tools (as discussed in Section 3.4 of the text) to generate a box plot on the 30 responses. Comment on the measures and shape of the distribution. Do the measures and shape represent what you would expect based on randomly determined values? Why or why not? Include the data set of the 30 random values and your output in your response. Provide references (Refer to Chapter 3 Review: Supplementary Exercises 62 in the Chapter 3 topic Resources in Essentials of Modern Business Statistics With Microsoft Office Excel in MindTap).
Evaluating Significance of Findings
Part of your task as a scholar-practitioner is to act as a critical consumer of research and ask informed questions of pub ...
Evaluating Significance of Findings
Part of your task as a scholar-practitioner is to act as a critical consumer of research and ask informed questions of published material. Sometimes, claims are made that do not match the results of the analysis. Unfortunately, this is why statistics is sometimes unfairly associated with telling lies. These misalignments might not be solely attributable to statistical nonsense, but also “user error.” One of the greatest areas of user error is within the practice of hypothesis testing and interpreting statistical significance. As you continue to consume research, be sure and read everything with a critical eye and call out statements that do not match the results.For this Assignment, you will examine statistical significance and meaningfulness based on sample statements.For this Assignment:Critically evaluate the two scenarios you selected based upon the following points:Critically evaluate the sample size.Critically evaluate the statements for meaningfulness.Critically evaluate the statements for statistical significance.Based on your evaluation, provide an explanation of the implications for social change.Use proper APA format and citations, and referencing.
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