The Social Science and challenges of implementing a strategy for 'Early Warnings'

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The Social Science and challenges of implementing a strategy for

'Early Warnings'

The Social Science and challenges of implementing a strategy for

'Early Warnings'

I expect you have heard of crowd dynamics within a sporting area

stadium or in a busy train station……… but now think about a 5million

person City being panicked into action not knowing where to go,

what to do, how to do it…………………

We have considerable work to do in conjunction with setting up the

science and hardware to enable a comprehensive early warning

system…… we must prepare the people,

‘the message receivers’

. And

this include the ‘Administration’

This briefing presentation will quickly review :

 the types of warning;

 how the warnings can assist us;

 which are the most threatening;

 which we should prioritize;

 how we should develop a strategy to react;

 how we address the challenge to prepare society to receive

warnings;

 what technology can we install to provide warnings;

 what technology we can use to deliver the warning messages.

We have five different types of warning to consider.

1. Real time early warning; when the event has actually started

but has yet to arrive at your location

2. Early Warning; when the event is known that it will happen

imminently

3. Early Warning Forecast that the event will happen with

consequence in the future.

4. Reliable prediction of an imminent event without precise

timings.

5. Prediction of an event which may or may not happen.

Why do I categorize warnings? I categorize so that we can identify

and initiate or activate the Urgency that either society or

The Social Science and challenges of implementing a strategy for

'Early Warnings'

administrations or critical infrastructure needs to receive and act

upon the warning.

It’s down to time scales of the event happening & down to the

urgency in which a sector within society must react either to mitigate,

minimize, prepare for or to avoid the event.

So let’s review in what circumstance each type of warning can be of

assistance to us. They all have a critical importance if we are to build

resilience into our communities and if we are to minimize not only

potentially Natural Hazard Disasters but also manmade disasters from

within industry or by us changing our environment. You will note that

these categories’ merge and mingle & simply offer a time line of

potential event. I do not suggest that all sectors will prioritize a

reaction in the same order.

1. Real Time Early Warnings I suggest are those in progress with

imminent destructive power i.e. Tsunami, volcano, cyclone, wild

fire, flash flood, glacier breakout, landslide and of coarse

earthquake.

When these events activate, we will want to know scale and

countdown to impact. We will want to know the procedure to

protect ourselves and minimize the effects upon critical

infrastructure.

Can we provide real time early warnings for all of these? Yes

we can now. But more on that later.

2. Early Warnings refer to events beginning to happen, identified

through a buildup of activity with a degree of uncertainty of

how or to what scale it will affect you, such as an approaching

cyclone, a developing flood, a remote bush fire, a volcano

rumbling. These events should already be prepared for,

practiced within society and should not come as a surprise.

3. Early Warning Forecast provides warning of longer term events

i.e. the beginning of the hurricane/ cyclone season, the tornado

season, a dormant but live volcano known to periodically

activate, and of course Climate Change, and active seismic

faultlines. These events have been accepted as threats to

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The Social Science and challenges of implementing a strategy for 'Early Warnings' I expect you have heard of crowd dynamics within a sporting area stadium or in a busy train station……… but now think about a 5million person City being panicked into action not knowing where to go, what to do, how to do it………………… We have considerable work to do in conjunction with setting up the science and hardware to enable a comprehensive early warning system…… we must prepare the people, ‘the message receivers’. And this include the ‘Administration’ This briefing presentation will quickly review : the types of warning; how the warnings can assist us; which are the most threatening; which we should prioritize; how we should develop a strategy to react; how we address the challenge to prepare society to receive warnings; what technology can we install to provide warnings; what technology we can use to deliver the warning messages. We have five different types of warning to consider. 1. Real time early warning; when the event has actually started but has yet to arrive at your location 2. Early Warning; when the event is known that it will happen imminently 3. Early Warning Forecast that the event will happen with consequence in the future. 4. Reliable prediction of an imminent event without precise timings. 5. Prediction of an event which may or may not happen. Why do I categorize warnings? I categorize so that we can identify and initiate or act ...
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