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Critical Thinking And Decision Analysis

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Subject
Management
School
American Graduate University
Type
Homework
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Running Head: CRITICAL THINKING AND DECISION ANALYSIS 1
Critical Thinking and Decision Analysis
Your Name
Instructor
Name of Institution
Date of submission

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CRITICAL THINKING AND DECISION ANALYSIS 2
17
Venue
Heraton Hotel
Atlantic University
No. of
delegates
attending
Probability
No. of
delegates
attending
50
0.2
10
40
16
100
0.5
50
100
50
150
0.3
45
160
16
Expected No.
of delegates
105
82
Expected total
returns
$
31,500.00
$
24,600.00
Expected total
expenses
$
24,500.00
$
19,840.00
Expected
Profits
$ 7,000.00
$ 4,760.00
a) The best location for maximization of profits will be Heraton Hotel yielding a profit of $
7,000 as compared to $ 4,760 from Atlantic University.

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Running Head: CRITICAL THINKING AND DECISION ANALYSIS Critical Thinking and Decision Analysis Your Name Instructor Name of Institution Date of submission 1 CRITICAL THINKING AND DECISION ANALYSIS 2 17 Venue Heraton Hotel No. of Expected No. Atlantic University Probability No. of delegates delegates attending attending Probability 50 0.2 10 40 0.4 16 100 0.5 50 100 0.5 50 150 0.3 45 160 0.1 16 105 82 $ $ of delegates Expected total returns Expected total 31,500.00 $ 24,600.00 $ expenses 24,500.00 19,840.00 Expected $ 7,000.00 $ 4,760.00 Profits a) The best location for maximization of profits will be Heraton Hotel yielding a profit of $ 7,000 as compared to $ 4,760 from Atlantic University. CRITICAL THINKING AND DECISION ANALYSIS 3 b) This analysis is highly dependent on the accuracy of the probabilities of attendants. It is therefore important to ensure the probability is as accurate as possible. c) i. Sketch ii. It is evident that, the higher the returns under certainly the less the probability of making a loss when the treasurer takes a gamble. d) Atlantic University – the location has higher potential to realize higher returns but accompanied by higher risk. CRITICAL THINKING AND DECISION ANALYSIS 4 e) Problems with the use of utilities • Utility cannot be measured objectively and the attempts to measure does not result to satisfactory outcomes • It is not possible to quantify the assumption of dimin ...
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