Post and 2 responses Explain how the concepts of probability theory can give rise to puzzle and paradox Explain why we cannot trust our intuition with probability and yet 99% of the decisions we make in no technical environments are made with the benefits of human experience and intuition. POST 1 1st:The goal of probability theory is to formalize randomness and chance into a mathematical equation (Sharma, J.K, 2006).  A paradox is an outcome that is subject to controversy, rupture and different beginnings that contradict your baseline knowledge according to Borovcnik (Borovcnik, M., & Kapadia, R., 2014).A puzzle is a solution that is intuitively not in line with our preconception of the idea (Borovcnik, M., & Kapadia, R., 2014).  The probability theory is the theory that random outcomes cannot be predicted before they occur.  In probability theory there is regularity but never exact predictions of outcome.People generally do not use mathematics in their everyday decision making process.  A lot of the time math is considered a “technical tool” when making decisions and 99% of decision making is done outside of that “technical environment” (Winkler, 1996).  Intuition is an important part of everyday life and everyday decision making, it can help steer you in the right direction but unfortunately intuition can come up short in some ways when it comes to making decisions based on data.  Our shortcomings in this area are from flaws that preexist in our minds.  According to Nobel winning economist Daniel Kahneman humans have two systems of thought.  System one is fast and intuitive and system two is slow and relies on reasoning (Borovcnik, M., & Kapadia, R., 2014). By using a combination of intuition and reasoning based on statistical information you can make quick decisions based on data that are fairly intuitive and accurate when applied correctly.Works CitedSharma, J. K. (2006). In Business Statistics, Second Edition. book, Pearson India.Winkler , P. (1996)  Probability and Intuition retrieved from https://ww2.amstat.org/mam/96/resources/winkler.html POST 2 2nd:The concepts of probability can give rise to puzzles and paradoxes ("birth of probability," 2021). The number of an event's outcome divided by the possible outcomes is what gives classical probability. The possible results are based purely on the uncertainty that adopts the principles of counterintuitive and contradiction, which leads to the rose of paradoxes and puzzles, respectively. The existing distinction between combinations and permutations and the related game theory are interconnected. In statistics, the puzzles and paradoxes are developed into mathematical concepts in the mathematics theories and practical. The probability and the related factors are explained as the likelihood's chance that a particular event will occur. Russell's most famous paradox discusses contradictions in the world when calculating probability and statistics ("birth of probability," 2021). Probabilities can be explained as proportions that range from 0 to 1 and are expressed in percentages from 0% to 100%. All the research-related activities are described as combinations and permutations.Intuitions are based on a gut level, and using impulses to make whatever decision would be based entirely on our judgments (Schreiber & Romero, 2021). Human beings develop heuristics in which they create a perception of the world, and that is why it would be challenging to use intuitions to make decisions. It is rather not advisable to do so. People who use their intuition to make decisions need to attribute to their surroundings, including their values, surroundings, and personal characteristics (Whittle, 2020). We cannot trust our intuition because most of our false intuitions are related to heuristics and other relatable concepts. Human behavior has evolved through the process of natural selection as well as the influence of genetics. Since intuition is affected by many different things, it might not always give the best judgment in all situations.ReferencesThe birth of probability. (2021). Chance, Logic and Intuition, 83-106. doi:10.1142/9789811229190_0004Schreiber, I., & Romero, B. (2021). Probability and human intuition. Game Balance, 491-508. doi:10.1201/9781315156422-20Whittle, P. (2020). Uncertainty, intuition, and expectation. Springer Texts in Statistics, 1-12. doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-0509-8_1

FILLER TEXT Please respond to both student discussion responses marked as FILLER TEXT below in at least 150 words each and 1 APA citation each. FILLER TEXT FILLER TEXT Required Chapter 1, Section  1.1, 1.14; Chapter 11 in FILLER TEXT(PMBOK® Guide) Recommended Chapters 3 & 7 in FILLER TEXT(1), 58-65. Maqbool, R., Ye, S., Manzoor, N., & Rashid,  Y. (2017). The  impact of emotional intelligence, project managers'  competencies, and  transformational leadership on project success: An empirical   perspective. FILLER TEXT(3), 58-75. Project Management  Institute. (2018). Ready for tomorrow? Retrieved from https://www.pmi.org/learning/careers/ready-for-tomorrow Tesfaye, E., Lemma, T., Berhan, E., & Beshah, B.  (2017). Key project planning processes affecting project success. FILLER TEXT(1), 159-172. Retrieved from http://www.ijqr.net/journal/v11-n1/10.pdf FILLER TEXT FILLER TEXT FILLER TEXT Discussion Board – Module 1 October 8, 2019 Methods of Creating a WBS There are two methods of creating a work breakdown structure (WBS).   These methods are the top-down approach and the bottom-up approach.   According to Project-Management.com (2018), the top-down approach of  creating a WBS begins with the overall project and then breaks it down  into lower-level tasks.  In contrast, the bottom-up approach starts at  the bottom with a list of low-level tasks and works its way up  (Project-Management.com, 2018).  Top-Down Approach I would be more comfortable using the top-down approach.  The  top-down approach makes more sense to me than the bottom-up approach.   The process of starting with the overall project and then breaking it  down into smaller components is the more logical way of creating a WBS.   I believe this is why the top-down approach method is more popular than  the bottom-up approach (Project-Management.com, 2018).  Project Situation  In the majority of project situations, most project managers use the  top-down approach to create work breakdown structures.  For example, a  PM that is dealing with upgrading the company-wide computer system will  most likely use the top-down approach.  The scope, requirements, and  costs associated with this type of project require that the major  project details be quickly and correctly identified.  After this  essential step, the project team can figure out the details.  References Project-Management.com.  (2018, October 16).  Work Breakdown  Structure (WBS): Top-down or Bottom-up?  Retrieved from  https://project-management.com/work-breakdown-structure-wbs-top-down-or-bottom-up/. FILLER TEXT FILLER TEXT FILLER TEXTFILLER TEXT Select the method of creating a WBS you are most comfortable with and explain why: There are different methods and techniques a project manager could  use to construct an accurate and reliable WBS. For me, I would be most  comfortable with a top-down method when developing a WBS. Many projects  start at the top of an organization when leadership desires some sort of  change or improvement and typically certain requirements come along  with that desire. Frederick W. Black (2002) states, “…it is project  management's responsibility to interpret and translate the enterprise  requirements, and communicate them in the form of project specific  requirements down to the project team when a project is initiated”  (para. 2). For me the requirements would be a starting point of the  development of a WBS. As more knowledge is gained about the requirements  and what entails achieving them, it seems to be a common sense process  to work in downward manner.  Describe a project situation where this method is appropriate: As part of an ongoing effort to identifying areas in need of  improvements, the organization I work for has identified our department  (among others) as needing a new workflow process that involves revamping  our processing systems and programs. Using a top down approach for  creating a WBS for sections of this project would be appropriate. The  development team met with our department to identify the “what” of the  of the systems/programs that need considered in order for them to  achieve a deliverable and for our department to be able to continue our  work. Using this type of approach may not always be beneficial, though.  Another, smaller, project that was developed in our department involved  creating a small program that automated part of the claims process.  Using a bottom up method may be more beneficial in this case as the  “what” of the project needed to be identified first in order to work  toward achieving a deliverable. Black, F. W. (2002, October 3). Top down-bottom up project  management. Retrieved from  https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/top-down-bott...