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100% renewable electricity in Australia

100% renewable electricity in Australia

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100% renewable electricity in Australia February 2017 Andrew Blakers, Bin Lu and Matthew Stocks Australian National University Andrew.blakers@anu.edu.au | ph 61 2 6125 5905 Abstract We present an energy balance analysis of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) in a 100% renewable energy scenario in which wind and photovoltaics (PV) provides 90% of the annual electricity. The key outcome of our modelling is that the additional cost of balancing renewable energy supply with demand on an hourly basis throughout the year is modest: AU$25-30/MWh (US$19-23/MWh). In our modelling we avoid heroic assumptions about future technology development by only including technology that has already been deployed in large quantities (> 100 Gigawatts), namely PV, wind, high voltage transmission (HVDC, HVAC) and pumped hydro energy storage (PHES). PHES constitutes 97% of worldwide electricity storage but is neglected in many analyses. In our scenarios wind and PV contributes about 90% of annual electricity, while existing hydroelectricity and biomass contributes about 10%. We use historical data for wind, sun and demand for every hour of the years 2006-10. Very wide distribution of PV and wind reduces supply shortfalls by taking advantage of different weather systems. Energy balance between supply and demand is maintained by adding sufficient PHES, HVDC/HVAC and excess wind and PV capacity. We term the cost of these additions as the levelised cost of balancing (LCOB). LCOB plus the le ...
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