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Kgustafson Del06PPTT 062118 pptx

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ASSOCIATION MEASURES Correlation and Regression BY KRISTIN GUSTAFSON SCENARIO  According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the probability of a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake in the Greater Bay Area is 63%, about 2 out of 3, in the next 30 years. In April 2008, scientists and engineers released a new earthquake forecast for the State of California called the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF). MAG DEPTH 0.70 6.6 0.74 2.0 0.64 15.3 0.39 17.2 0.70 3.2 2.20 2.2 1.98 14.8 0.64 5.6 1.22 6.1 0.20 9.1 1.64 18.5 1.32 8.1 2.95 10.0 0.90 13.7 1.76 8.0 1.01 7.0 1.26 18.6 0.00 8.2 0.65 5.7 1.46 18.9 1.62 13.7 1.83 4.5 0.99 8.3 1.56 6.0 0.40 14.2 1.28 5.4 0.83 17.7 1.34 9.9 0.54 17.3 1.25 5.1 0.92 5.3 1.00 15.9 0.79 13.7 0.79 4.2 1.44 5.7 1.00 5.9 2.24 15.1 2.50 8.5 1.79 14.7 1.25 16.4 1.49 4.7 0.84 8.6 1.42 8.2 1.00 15.2 1.25 10.1 1.42 14.5 1.35 5.2 0.93 7.9 0.40 3.3 1.39 6.4 SCATTERPLOT Linear Correlation  The value of the correlation coefficient r = 0.0270  Critical Value = r(n-2),0.05 r = 48,0.05  Critical Value = 0.285 LINEAR CORRELATION  Here r = 0.027 < r CV= 0.285 There is no sufficient evidence to support the claim that linear correlation between magnitudes and the depths from the earthquakes.  Regression The regression equation is: MAGNITUDE = 9.5349 + 0.2306 * DEPTH EQUATION MODEL  Let magnitude =2.0  ...
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