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20180515024527homework 2 2

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3-30 a. Decision Table Size of First Station Small Medium Large Very Large Good Market ($) 50,000 80,000 100,000 300,000 Fair Poor Market ($) Market ($) 20,000 -10,000 30,000 -20,000 30,000 -40,000 25,000 -160,000 Maximax Maximin 50,000 80,000 100,000 300,000 -10,000 -20,000 -40,000 -160,000 Equally (Avg) 20,000 30,000 30,000 55,000 b. The maximax decision will be constructing a very large first station (300,000) because it gives us the largest return. c. The maximin decision will be constructing a small first station (-10,000) because is the “best worst”. d. The equally like decision will be constructing a very large station. e. For α = 0.8 𝑊𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 = 𝛼 ∗ (𝑏𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑖𝑛 𝑟𝑜𝑤) + (1 − 𝛼) ∗ (𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑖𝑛 𝑟𝑜𝑤) Size of First Station Small Medium Large Very Large Good Market ($) 50,000 80,000 100,000 300,000 Fair Poor Market ($) Market ($) 20,000 -10,000 30,000 -20,000 30,000 -40,000 25,000 -160,000 Criterion 38,000 60,000 72,000 208,000 So the decision will be a very large station. f. We subtract each payoff from the best payoff in all the columns. Size of First Station Small Medium Large Very Large Good Market ($) 300,000-50000 =250,000 300,000-80000 =220,000 300,000-100000 =200,000 300,000-300000 =0 Fair Market ($) 30,000-20000 =10,000 30,000-30,000 =0 30,000-30,000 =0 30,000-250,000 =5,000 Poor Market ($) -10,000+10,000 =0 -10,000+20,000 = 10,0 ...
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