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forecasting_exercise

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FORECASTING EXERCISE

Forecasting Exercise

Name:

Affiliation No:

Institution Name:

Task:

Submission Date:

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FORECASTING EXERCISE

Forecasting Exercise

a

b

c

f

Perio

d

Quart

er

Foreca

st

Actual

Dema

nd

D10

Foreca

st with

3 MA

Error

Foreca

st with

ES(∝

=

0.6)

Error

Forecast with

3WMA(0.50,0,0.1

5).35

G10

Error

1

4Q

2008

200

220

221.67

-1.67

2

1Q

2009

220

215

220.67

-5.67

3

2Q

2009

215

210

217.27

-7.27

4

3Q

2010

210

220

215

5

212.91

7.09

213.25

6.75

5

4Q

2009

220

225

215

10

217.16

7.84

215.75

9.25

6

1Q

2010

225

240

218.33

21.6

7

221.87

18.1

3

221

19

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Forecasting Exercise Name: Affiliation No: Institution Name: Task: Submission Date: Forecasting Exercise a b c f Period Quarter Forecast Actual Demand D10 Forecast with 3 MA Error Forecast with ES( Error Forecast with 3WMA(0.50,0,0.15).35 G10 Error 1 4Q 2008 200 220 221.67 -1.67 2 1Q 2009 220 215 220.67 -5.67 3 2Q 2009 215 210 217.27 -7.27 4 3Q 2010 210 220 215 5 212.91 7.09 213.25 6.75 5 4Q 2009 220 225 215 10 217.16 7.84 215.75 9.25 6 1Q 2010 225 240 218.33 21.67 221.87 18.13 221 19 7 2Q 2010 240 255 228.33 26.67 232.75 22.25 231.75 23.25 8 3Q 2010 260 240.00 20 246.10 13.90 245.25 14.75 9 4Q 2010 270 251.67 18.33 254.44 15.56 255.25 14.75 10 1Q 2011 261.67 263.78 MAD= 16.94 7.80 14.63 MSE= 408.33 182.37 293.56 MAPE= 6.78 5.05 5.89 From Excel, the formulas used: For (a) For (b For (c) For (f) d). Forecasting error using the exponential smoothing technique All the three error criteria have the lowest values for ES (. So, exponential smoothing with appears to be the best forecasting method. e). error forecasting us the weighted moving average method The forecasting technique followed in the problem appears to be that forecast for period t= Actual demand for period (t-1) References Champlain College Transportation and Logistics RAC: BJ72: Demand Forecasting https://heizerrenderom.wordpress.com/2013/05/16/guest-post-beat-the-instructor-a-classroom-forecasting-exer ...
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