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Bus 625 week 4 journal

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Reflective Journal: Chapters 7 and 8 in Superforecasting
Student Name
The University of Arizona Global Campus
BUS 625: Data & Decision Analytics
Professor Timothy Crawford
02 May 2021

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Data Analytics in Industry
The job does not end there if a prediction is made. Forecasts can be revised as new
information becomes available, and super forecasters change their predictions more often than
most forecasters. These fixed predictions are more reliable because the forecaster who
regularly updates is more likely to be well-informed. It isn't easy to adjust a prediction since one
can both underreact and overreact. When faced with new facts, we frequently want to maintain
our convictions regardless of the new data. People's views on various topics can be motivated
more by their self-identity than by some other factor.
Furthermore, the more people who are interested in something, the more difficult it is to
say one was mistaken. Another difficulty is that after people have openly stated their position on
something, it is difficult to persuade them to change their minds. However, you must be able to
change your mind as the facts change. It is also difficult to differentiate between meaningful and
irrelevant information. People often believe that something is significant when it is not, and
meaningless facts can confuse and cause prejudices. If one isn't emotionally invested in the
outcome, they will overreact; while they are, they may underreact. The key is to tweak a
prediction periodically while making only minor changes in most situations. Of course, there are
moments when a drastic shift is needed. If you are seriously off track, gradual reform will not
suffice.
Some people believe they are who they are and that they cannot improve or
evolve. These are not the types of people that become and develop. They never try, and they
believe they can't. It turns into a self-fulfilling prophecy, and people have preconceived notions.
Development mindsets characterize super forecasters. The renowned economist, John Keynes,
is an expert on stock market investments. He meticulously examined all of his mistakes and
worked to improve his results. He rose to prominence. We must try to succeed. We must test,
lose, assess, adapt, and try again to progress. We learn by practice, and we strengthen by
repetition, and it holds with any ability. It's the same for forecasting. You can't understand it just

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Reflective Journal: Chapters 7 and 8 in Superforecasting Student Name The University of Arizona Global Campus BUS 625: Data & Decision Analytics Professor Timothy Crawford 02 May 2021 Data Analytics in Industry The job does not end there if a prediction is made. Forecasts can be revised as new information becomes available, and super forecasters change their predictions more often than most forecasters. These fixed predictions are more reliable because the forecaster who regularly updates is more likely to be well-informed. It isn't easy to adjust a prediction since one can both underreact and overreact. When faced with new facts, we frequently want to maintain our convictions regardless of the new data. People's views on various topics can be motivated more by their self-identity than by some other factor. Furthermore, the more people who are interested in something, the more difficult it is to say one was mistaken. Another difficulty is that after people have openly stated their position on something, it is difficult to persuade them to change their minds. However, you must be able to change your mind as the facts change. It is also difficult to differentiate between meaningfu ...
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