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fundamental_analysis

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Fundamental Analysis
A good fundamental analysis consists of three parts:
Economic analysis
Industry analysis
Company analysis
These three parts must be interrelated to generate useful information for calculating
the intrinsic value of a firm. The example below shows the analysis for a firm (e.g.,
Safeway) in the grocery industry.
Economic Analysis
Growth: What is the difference between real GDP and nominal GDP? How fast was
the real economy growing over the most recent 10-year period (i.e., 2000-2010)?
How does this compare to its long-run trend over the past 30 years?
Business Cycles: Did real GDP grow in every year? What years are recession
years? How severe were the recessions? How robust were the first years of the
recovery after the recession?
Inflation trends: What was the average rate of inflation over this period of time?
Was it accelerating? How is inflation related to real GDP growth over this time
period?
Note: The analysis is focusing on those economic issues that affect the grocery
industry.
Industry Analysis
Growth: How fast did the industry grow in real terms over the most recent 10year
period (i.e., 2000-2010)? Did the industry keep pace with the economy in real terms on
the average? How would you characterize this industry with respect to the industry life
cycle?

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Business Cycles: What happened to the real sales of this industry during recent
recessions? What happened to the real sales of this industry during the first year of
subsequent recovery? Based upon this limited information, would you characterize
this industry as having above-average, average, or below-average cyclicality? In
another words, is this industry a cyclical industry, counter-cyclical industry, or
neutral industry? In terms of business risk, do you consider the risk of this industry
above average, average, or below average? Does this classification make sense given
the fundamental nature of the grocery business (i.e., income elasticity of demand for
grocery products)? Can you identify any changes in this industry that might alter
the basic cyclical relationship or its core business risk exposure in the future?
Inflation trends: What is the average inflation rate for this industry? How does
this compare with what that of the economy in general? How can you explain the
relatively low rate of inflation characteristic of the grocery industry? Why is the
price competition so intense in this industry?
Note: Porter’s model is particularly helpful to answer some of these questions.
Company Analysis
Growth: How fast did Safeway grow on the average during the most 10-year period?
How does this compare to the real growth of the economy? How does this compare to
the industry? Can you identify a period of time in which Safeway’s real growth diverged
from that of industry? How can you explain that?
Business Cycles: What about the recent real growth? How can you explain that?
How did Safeway fare during the recent recessions? Based upon this limited
information, would you classify Safeway as having above-average, average, or
below-average cyclicality? What about business risk? What other information
would you need to know before you can make an assessment of business risk? What
about operating leverage? Do we gain any insight from these data regarding
operating leverage? Can you identify any changes in this company that might alter
the basic cyclical relationship or its core business risk exposure in the future? Based
upon the fundamentals examined here, what would be an appropriate range for the
stock’s beta?

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 Fundamental Analysis A good fundamental analysis consists of three parts: Economic analysis Industry analysis Company analysis These three parts must be interrelated to generate useful information for calculating the intrinsic value of a firm. The example below shows the analysis for a firm (e.g., Safeway) in the grocery industry. Economic Analysis Growth: What is the difference between real GDP and nominal GDP? How fast was the real economy growing over the most recent 10-year period (i.e., 2000-2010)? How does this compare to its long-run trend over the past 30 years? Business Cycles: Did real GDP grow in every year? What years are recession years? How severe were the recessions? How robust were the first years of the recovery after the recession? Inflation trends: What was the average rate of inflation over this period of time? Was it accelerating? How is inflation re ...
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