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Predictive Modeling: A Modeler’s Introspection A Paper Describing How to Model and How to Think Like a Modeler June 2015 Predictive Modeling: A Modeler’s Introspection A Paper Describing How to Model and How to Think Like a Modeler SPONSORS Committee on Finance Research AUTHORS Michael Ewald, FSA, CFA, CERA Qiao Wang CAVEAT AND DISCLAIMER The opinions expressed and conclusions reached by the authors are their own and do not represent any official position or opinion of the Society of Actuaries or its members. The Society of Actuaries makes not representation or warranty to the accuracy of the information. Copyright ©2015 All rights reserved by the Society of Actuaries Acknowledgements The authors would like to express their gratitude to the SOA Project Oversight Group. The quality of this paper has been enhanced through their valuable input. The group includes the following individuals: William Cember, Andy Ferris, Jean-Marc Fix (chair), John Hegstrom, Christine Hofbeck, Steve Marco, Dennis Radliff, Barbara Scott (SOA), and Steven Siegel (SOA). Additionally, we would like to thank our colleagues and friends: Andrew Dalton, Katherine Ewald, Jim King, Alex Marek, and Tom Tipton. We could not have produced this paper without their help and feedback. Additionally, they have helped make us better modelers, actuaries, and people. ©Society of Actuaries, All Rights Reserved Michael Ewald Page 1 Table of Contents Introduction – Historical Actuarial Approach ..... ...
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