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Assignment #13 Chapter 4 Randomness pp. 215-220: Homework: 4.2, 4.3, 4.4, 4.5
Random phenomenon: events that occur at a predictable rate
Probability: Likelihood of an outcome
Independent trials: one trial does not affect the next trial. If you throw 10 heads in a row, the probability of heads on the
next toss is still .5. Your coin doesn’t remember.
Fairness: Probability of heads is .5; probability of rolling a “6” with a single die is 1/6; probability of drawing a “spade” from
a standard deck is 1/4; Probability of drawing an ace from a standard deck is 1/13; Probability of drawing the ace of
spades is 1/52.
Significance tests: In research, how one determines if the outcome is a chance finding.
Type 1 error: A false positive: We say something is true that is not true. The boy who cries “wolf”! The boy says the wolf
is there, but there is no wolf.
Type 2 error: A false negative: We say that something that is not true is true. The boy says no wolf is there, but there
really is one
Clearly whether in research or practicing animal safety we try to eliminate both types of error.
4.2 (page 220) Are the following events random?
(a) Note 4.2-a (in the text) is tricky. Answer for this setting instead. The likelihood of drawing a “boy” card from a well-
shuffled deck of Dutch Blitz cards.
Random phenomenon
(b) The first digit on your student ID number
Not random
(c) Draw an ace from a well-shuffled deck
Random phenomenon
4.3 (page 220) Interpret what is the probability OR explain why probability does not apply: Think, is it random?
(a) “boy” card from a Dutch Blitz deck
Probability = .5
(b) The first digit on your student ID number
Not random because the first digit often has an underlying meaning and therefore will be biased in some way as
well as varying from university to university
(c) Draw an ace from a well-shuffled deck
Probability = 1/13

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Assignment #13 Chapter 4 Randomness pp. 215-220: Homework: 4.2, 4.3, 4.4, 4.5 Random phenomenon: events that occur at a predictable rate Probability: Likelihood of an outcome Independent trials: one trial does not affect the next trial. If you throw 10 heads in a row, the probability of heads on the next toss is still .5. Your coin doesn’t remember. Fairness: Probability of heads is .5; probability of rolling a “6” with a single die is 1/6; probability of drawing a “spade” from a standard deck is 1/4; Probability of drawing an ace from a standard deck is 1/13; Probability of drawing ...
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