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IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SOCIO
ECONOMIC SECURITY OF PAKISTAN
(THESIS)
DEPARMENT : M.Sc. Peace and Conflict Studies
Contents
1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 1
1.1. Problem Statement ............................................................................................................................ 1
1.2. Significance of the study ................................................................................................................... 2
1.3. Objectives ......................................................................................................................................... 2
1.4. Literature Review .............................................................................................................................. 2
1.5. Research Gap .................................................................................................................................... 5
1.6. Hypothesis......................................................................................................................................... 5
1.7. Research Questions ........................................................................................................................... 5
1.8. Theoretical Framework ..................................................................................................................... 5
1.9. Methodology ..................................................................................................................................... 6
2.0. Climate Change Trends of Pakistan ....................................................................................................... 7
2.1. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Profile of Pakistan ..................................................................................... 7
2.2 Observed Past Climate Trends ................................................................................................................ 7
2.2.1 Rising Sea Levels ................................................................................................................................. 8
2.2.2 Projection of Future Climate Trends in Pakistan ................................................................................. 8
2.2.3. Projected Sea Level Rise..................................................................................................................... 8
2.3. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Forestry ........................................................................... 9
2.3.1. Agriculture Sector ............................................................................................................................... 9
2.3.2. Forestry Sector .................................................................................................................................. 10
2.4. Climate Change Impacts on Water Sector in Pakistan......................................................................... 10
2.5. Climate Change Impacts on Energy Sector ......................................................................................... 10
2.6. Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Areas .......................................................................................... 11
2.7. Climate Change Impacts on Transport and Urban Sector .................................................................... 12
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2.8. Institutional Arrangements for Climate Change .................................................................................. 13
2.9. Disaster Risk Management Arrangements ........................................................................................... 13
2.10. The Ministry of Climate Change ....................................................................................................... 13
3.1. Food, Water, Health ............................................................................................................................. 15
4.0 Mitigation Measures ............................................................................................................................. 17
5.0 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................ 19
5.1 Recommendations ................................................................................................................................. 19
Bibliography ............................................................................................................................................... 21
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1.0 Introduction
The worsening of the earth’s climate can be seen and felt all over the world . As Pakistan is one
of the most terribly affected countries by climate change, Pakistan faces numerous economic,
social, geographical and political problems. Pakistan is the seventh most vulnerable country to
climate change. Pakistan is ranked at 135th rank amid the conservatory Gases (GHG) emitting
countries in the equivalent index. The western and southern segments of the country represent
the Indus River basin plain and Balochistan Plateau. The transboundary Indus basin covers
520,000 km2 or 65% of the country’s total area, including the whole provinces of Punjab,
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, most of the Sindh territory, and the eastern part of Balochistan. The Indus
Basin Irrigation System is the world’s largest contiguous irrigation system, accounting for 95%
of the country’s total irrigation system. The catastrophic force on the nation of Pakistan, above
all the fall of the farming sector, be able to plummet the country into dire straits.In addition,to
increase the social inequities, bringing about stack migrations and in-house displacements in
unusual parts of the country, climate change prevail a social , geographical and political
imbalance,which would need a host of challenging problems. Climate change has serious
implications for socio economic security of Pakistan,which will lone get worse with the passage
of time except satisfactory procedures are taken. Nature is wild, don’t mess with it, a most
famous quote, is true and always be.. Politics, in any country, does not carry out in isolation. As
climate transformation increasingly influences the economy, the world and geography, the
following setting in Pakistan is fringe to change. The financially viable ramifications of climate
cash will be at the midpoint of following discord. opinionated parties in Pakistan take historically
not responded successfully to failing monetary conditions. cost-effective doubts preserve
suddenly twist into broadcast uprisings, which entrepreneur politicians may instantly catch
behind in peace to foster their particular biased goals. This opportunism has been witnessed
scores of era before, for instance, loans from IMF in the past, even if not a catalog but a
necessity, say been criticized by many, single to reap biased leverage. Such populist’s take not
performed economically satisfactory in the past, and if allowable to govern, the fallout would be
decidedly risky for Pakistan’s supporting institutions, which are before now at a hopeful perform of
development.
1.1. Problem Statement
Climate modification has be converted into a important menace to Pakistan’s Socio-Economic
Security. The of great magnitude climate modification threats to Pakistan are:Increased stress
between upper riparian and hand dower riparian regions to distribution of irrigate
resources;Increased health risks and climate loose change induced migration. Suchthreats leads
to main survival concerns for Pakistan, particularly in next of kin to the country’s security, and
energy resources.Climate change is perceived as a major challenges to humanity due to it’s
1devastating effects on human lives, economic growth and prosperity.Natural resources are
being rapidly eliminated and causing loss of biodiversity and deforestation.
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1.2. Significance of the study
The research which is conducted and presented in this paper is based on climate change and it’s
impacts on Pakistan’s Socio-Economic Security .It will present the direct and indirect effects on
economy, agriculture, sustainability of natural resources,further (analysis) of the conflicts,which
are increasing rapidly (due to climate induced causes).
1.3. Objectives
The purpose of this paper is aimed at:
To highlight the impacts of climate change on socio economic security of Pakistan
To explain the causes of climate change
To find out the solutions regarding this issue
1.4. Literature Review
Pakistan faces countless challenges in the conditions of aggravation climate conditions.These
problems are not limited to any certain region of life,rahter they extend to almost every sphere of
life, complementing both other.In the economic sphere, climate change poses terrifying
threat.Water availability,over the years,has been decreasing for the cultivation sector.As we
know, Pakistan is heavily dependent on the agriculture for it’s foreign earnings.Any damage to
this sector would grant a difficult of further getting cost.
Women are one of the most vulnerable groups in any society.A number of rural women in
Pakistan are engaged in agricultural activities.In cases of natural uncertainties,such as droughts
and deforestation,these women find it more difficult to relocate to greener pastures,owing to their
families and children and thing leads to increasing poverty .The progress of women development
is already poor in Pakistan,and the current drop of climate can cause significant harm to it.
Climate Change will deteriorate human health.Warmer climate will result in many water,air and
borne diseases.Without solid steps to eradicate the impacts of climate change,the poor Pakistani
population will be highly vulnerable to these diseases.As climate change increasingly influences
the economy, society and geography,the political situation in Pakistan is bound to change .
Historically,the political parties in Pakistan have not responded effectively to declining economic
Muhammad Zahid Riffat have presented his views in his article”Climate change effect on
Pakistan’s economic growth and human life” he says that Pakistan ranks between the Apex ten
countries of the planet which are largely vulnerable to climate change.Increasingly repeated and
additional intensive floods , temperature waves and cyclonic actions which control resulted in
significant financial,notes and human being losses over the current years.Fairly alarmingly,the
international climate difference gamble key 2017 has ranked Pakistan as the 7th on the whole
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vulnerable country artificial by climate amnend though on the other hand, Pakistan is ranked at
135th spot in the midst of the conservatory gases emitting countries in the equal index.
Climate substitute is perceived as of the key challenges to humanity as it should be to it’s
devastating special effects on individual lives, financial enlargement and proepserity. Natural
resources are being rapidly deleted at an alarming measure causing beating of biodiversity
and deforestation.The underground and plane stream is organism grimy proper to the expend
of pesticides and fertilizers at great in the crop growing sector.On the other hand,burning of
crops resides are additionally ensuing in minder pollution formation which disrupts space and
boulevard go in the pure areas for weeks together.As a material of fact, Pakistan has been
facing the nastiest possessions of climate trasnform in the preceding decade as of it’s
geographic location.
Department of climate change has several initiatives in the quarter of climate swap
adaption and alleviation in accordance with the state _non policy.
Pakistan climate lose change board and Pakistan climate coins confidence in the
progression of consciousness traditional to take up the issues of climate substitute and
links Pakistan’s obligations under global conventions involving to climate change.
Ministryof Climate change has finished the deal with of signing and confirmation of
Paris accord by the centralized Government.
A report from and independent policy think tank “Lead Pakistan”which focues on
policy research, public engagement and leadership development in the public
highlighted the effects of climate change on Pakistan.pakistan contributes actual
dimitive to the whole Green House Gas emissions.Galcier melt in the Himalayas is
projected to proliferation flooding will have an effect on irrigate possessions
confained by the subsquently two to three decades .This will be followed by
decreased canal flows over time as glaciers recede.Fresh water availability is in
addition projected to dropping off which will go in front to biodiversity beating and
case availability of fresh water for population.Coastal areas neighboring the Arabian
sea in the south of Pakistan will be at lay bare proper to enlarged flooding from the
sea and in roughly cases,the rivers .The force of climate adjust will ignite the free
shared inequalities of reserve handling and deeper collective factors foremost to
instability, conflicts, disarticulation of nation and changes in migration patterns.
Sabahat Zahra in her article “impact of global climate change on Economy of
pakistan “says that ,Food is primarily associated to crop creation and provisions
accessibility; equally of these basics are at once exaggerated by climate change.The
one on its own result of devastating 2010 flooding weather-beaten gone 6 percent of
our GDP. The humankind broad account for Nature-Pakistan (WWF-Pakistan),in
collaboration with the London teach of Economics-Political Sciences and Lahore
college of Management Sciences untaken a inform and highlighted the circulation of
climate swap in Pakistan and its collision on cultivation and foodstuff security.
According to this report,altering climate will precisely move agricultural productivity.
By 2040, an multiply in be in the region of high temperature of 0.5 point Celsius is
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probable nationwide, with 8-10 percent hurt in provisions of every one crops
corresponding to Pakistani Rupees 30,000 apiece acre. Climate modification has
shortest cost on energy with regard to its utilization and production. The major sound
effects of altering climate are an increase in intensity in energy spending in
residential, commercial, and production sectors for changed purposes such as for
universe cooling in reply to better fever and built-up route cooling (in thermal
strength plants and steel mills), refrigeration, pumping run for community and
agricultural irrigation. According to general fiscal & Environmental growth reading
Report,5 during 2008-2009, Pakistan’s energy ingestion was 37.3million tonnes.
This energy met from not the same sources as well as gas (43.4%), oil (29%),
electricity (15.3%), coal (10.4%), and LPG (1.5%). completely of these energy
sources jointly savings account for 51% of the resident hothouse gab emission. InIn
difference to preceding ten years, custom of juice has bigger by 0.5% for each annum,
gab by 6.8%, electricity by 5%, and coal by 12.5% for each annum. Whereas, in the
previous five being here has been an heighten in ingestion by 9%, an augment in coal
using up of 1.5%, and a cut in lubricate ingestion by 9.5%.
According to the report of DW (a TV channel) , India and Pakistan are bitter rivals
over water , both hold nuclear wapons in their arsenal.The two countries obtain a
extended but artificial arrangement over division fill with tears from the Indus stream
and its tributaries. Waters from the Indus, which stream from India and the in doubt
Kashmir constituency into Pakistan, were imprinted up between India and Pakistan
under the 1960 Indus irrigate Treaty (IWT).The IWT divides the six chief rivers of
the Indus hand basin between Pakistan and India. Pakistan was arranged human rights
to as a rule of the dampen in the region's western rivers the Indus, Jhelum and
Chenab which course through Indian-administered Kashmir.The dispute over the
Kashmir region , a flashpoint between India and Pakistan for additional than six
decades is hugely entangled with fill up security. mutually countries apply for the
unbroken region, but both simply joystick a divide of it.While the IWT has managed
to continue to exist the wars and other hostilities, it is increasingly living being
awkward to its limit. Pakistan has accused India of throttling its run resource and
violating the IWT by constructing dams over the rivers flowing into Pakistan from
Kashmir.For Pakistan, the Indus waters are a lifeline: most of the country depends on
it as the first spokesperson of freshwater and it ropes 90 percent of the country's
agricultural industry.And bit Pakistan was careful rather overflowing with water, a
mixture of mismanaged irrigation, water-intensive crop growing and climate
difference has compact the Indus to a drip in parts.In 2016, India came lock to tearing
up the IWT. It blamed Pakistani militants for an assail on Indian soldiers personnel in
Indian-administered Kashmir in September of that year.
Sherry Rehman in her interview to DW said, that "We are right away facing
challenges brought about by climate alter which were not a most important focus
during the negotiations for the Indus hose Treaty,It has converted into a material of
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survival," she said. "Aside from the not have of stiff dialogue, the language hanging
around telling a probable irrigate war is chiefly alarming."
1.5. Research Gap
The research gap identified is thermal tolerance and acclimation capacities of both plants and
animals, and the direct impact of rising carbon dioxide on biodiversity. There is limited pool of
research and data available on the Socio-Economic conflicts in pakistan by climate change.
1.6. Hypothesis
Climate Change can have a negative impact on Pakistan’s Socio-Economic Security .
Independent Variable: Climate Change
Dependent Variable: Pakistan's Socio-Economic Security
1.7. Research Questions
What are the main climate regions of Pakistan?
What are the major effects of climate change in Pakistan?
How can climate change induce conflict in Pakistan?
Why is climate change a serious threat to Pakistan's Socio-Economic Security?
What measures can be taken to mitigate these threats?
1.8. Theoretical Framework
Green theory captures this orientation in political terms of value and agency (Goodin 1992)
what is to be valued, by whom and how to get it. Green theory belongs to the critical theory
tradition, in the sense that environmental issues evoke questions about relations between and
among ourselves and others in the context of community and collective decision-making. In turn
this has always raised the question of where the boundaries of political community are. For
environmental problems, which transcend boundaries, these questions take the form of asking at
what level of political community we should seek a solution. For green theorists, the answers are
found in alternative ideas about political association based on our ecological relationships.
A green theory perspective on climate change understands it as a level consequence of person
collective choices. Specifically, these choices have led to historically anthropocentric money-
making practices of historically capricious biased groups (states), who cover exploited makeup
in their hold short-term interests. Climate difference presents a clear problem of injustice to in
cooperation present and coming humans who are not in charge for causing it and to the
ecological unit as a whole.Since the birth of the business era, the atmospheric concentrations of
quite a few radiatively vigorous gases receive been ever-increasing as a end result of being
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activities. According to the green house theory of climate change, the climate system will be
restored to equilibrium by a warming of the surfacetroposphere system and a cooling of the
stratosphere. The predicted changes, during the after that a small amount of decades, may
perhaps a great deal exceed unprocessed climate variations in chronological times. Hence, the
conservatory philosophy of climate transformation has reached the crucial arena of
verification. In Pakistan green house gases are the causes effecting Pakistan’s socio eoconomic
security.
1.9. Methodology
Qualitative research method is used for the study .Sources of study are publications by
government sector, research articles ,media and documents issued by different state department
Working on climate change and impacts of climate change on Pakistan's economic development.
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2.0. Climate Change Trends of Pakistan
Pakistan has been facing different issues regarding climate change. In past,effects and level of
climate change was different than now and there is comparison between past and current trends
of climate change and future predictions.
2.1. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Profile of Pakistan
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment
inform(AR5), total conservatory gab (GHG) emissions possess accelerated to an exceptional
even with total hard work to discontinue down emissions. Climate change projections point
toward that during the
21st century the large-scale come out high temperature is apt to knoll 0.3°C to 1.7°C (0.5°F to
3.1°F) fortheir buck emissions scenario by means of stringent mitigation, and 2.6°C to 4.8°C
(4.7°F to 8.6°F)for production as everyday carbon intense emissions. Hence, the description
warns that the state macropromise of restrictive the multiplication in overall require heat to 2°C
above pre-industrial levelsrequires lowering the macro emissions by 40% to 70% compared with
2010 by mid-century, andto near nil by the extremity of this century.
According to the state-run GHG inventory of Pakistan for the day 20112012, its tote up
GHGemissions was at 369 million tons of carbon dioxide comparable (MmtCOe) with 45.9%
allocate of energy, 44.8% let somebody in on of farming and pigs sector, 3.9% assign of
manufacturing processes,and 2.6% part of be given draw on revolutionize for forestry sectors.
The energy and agriculture-domestic animals sectors single-handedly relation for 90.7% of the
add up emissions swimming pool and experience like so distant remained the major emitters of
GHGs since 1994. Pakistan has arranged four GHG discharge inventories to date. ADB
organized the original one for the being 19891990, the overall Environment flair (GEF)
supported the second account (fiscal day 19931994), the Pakistan Atomic Energy committee on
the application of the brief push on Climate modify of the forecast cut of Pakistan primed the
third one for 20072008.
2.2 Observed Past Climate Trends
A significant increase in the number of heat wave being for each day with a measure of 11 being
for each decade was experiential over the interlude 19802007 for Pakistan.A conclusive linear
trend is celebrated in the frequency of intensity waves at 5, 7, and 10 consecutive existence for
moderate fervor waves (≥40°C) in the Sindh territory of Pakistan. The trends for 5, 7, and 10
consecutive time rose especially sharply, indicating the greater than before frequency of leg
waves in Sindh from 19612011. The consider for Sindh shows a jagged add to in the intense
excitement waves events, calculated for temperatures ≥45°C for 5, 7, and 10 consecutive days.
During the spot 19611990s, the warm up wave proceedings were minus frequent. However,
from 1990 to 2011,an build up in frequency of these procedures is noticed. It is likely that with
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high-level temperatures in the prolonged run, warm waves will grow to be extra go to regularly
and intense entirely over the world, as well as Pakistan. A rise up of 3060 time in unfeeling
wave is practical in the northwestern parts of the country, and the come to of distant wave time
in Punjab and the southern areas of Sindh area decreased. However,no considerable trend is
practical in the mode numeral of freezing wave being across the country. No sizeable trends are
illustrious in the frequency of consecutive wet and ironic time.
2.2.1 Rising Sea Levels
Sea level rise for Pakistan is estimated at 1.1 mm a day
1
from 18562000 next to the Karachi
coast According to the IPCC AR5 functioning grouping I report, total indicate sea even rose 0.19
indicator (m) over the dot 19012010. The cost of swap was distinctly advanced during the soon
period: the represent percentage of the inclusive mode sea at the same height incline was 1.7
mm/year between 1901 and 2010, and 3.2 mm/year between 1993 and 2010. The replace in sea
smooth as glass was as it should be to two chief processes of thermal extension of ocean from
large-scale warming and glacier pile loss.
2.2.2 Projection of Future Climate Trends in Pakistan
Under future climate change scenarios, Pakistan is estimated to face greater than before
changeability of tributary flows exactly to augmented changeability of rain and the melting of
glaciers. Yields of wheat and basmati rice are estimated to decline and may transport fabrication
northward, subject to hose availability. fill up availability for hydropower creation may decline.
Hotter temperatures are prone to swell energy require suitable to amplified atmosphere
conditioning requirements. electric fire impression and dampen temperatures may reduce the
efficiency of nuclear and thermal authority place in the ground generation. Mortality looked-for
to severe section waves may increase. inner-city drainage systems may be additional stressed by
in height precipitation and sparkle floods. Sea horizontal mutiny and storm surges may adversely
have emotional impact coastal infrastructure and livelihoods. Using the general circulation model
for future climate change , the Global. Change Impact study Centre (2007) modeled twelve-
monthly heat and rain exchange for imminent existence 2020, 2050 and 2080. By 2080, the high
temperature redouble in Pakistan will be as sky-scraping as 4.38°C. concerning regional
revolutionize in twelve-monthly temperature, the reading advance renowned that (i) the high
temperature proliferate in equally summer and chill are superior in northern than southern
Pakistan, and (ii) the high temperature increases in equally regions are advanced in frost than
summer.
2.2.3. Projected Sea Level Rise
In the preceding century, the average of norm sea quantity rose to 1.1 mm/year for Pakistan. It is
hard to undertaking sea press flat materialize (SLR) by the base of 2100 for Pakistan, since
numbers is partial at the country level. However, the sea blow up mount projections at the
international and regional levels know how to be ready to lend a hand in capturing the level of
the probability Pakistan will be exposed to in the future. IPCC AR5 comments a international
1
9 R. Tariq and G.R. Athar. Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Sector of Pakistan. Pakistan Atomic
Energy Commission. http://nijesr.iefr.edu.pk/journalFolder/6/8e6bd.pdf
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imply SLR of 0.20.6 m by the terminate of this century, where for South Asia, of which
Pakistanis coast is a role of proper to the joint Arabian Sea border, 0.7 m (with span between
0.42 and 1.12 m and a 90% flat of confidence, footnote 21) SLR is projected by 2100 on average,
relation to the pre-industrial quantity opportunity sea point ascend will on the whole expected
touch the low-lying coastal areas south of Karachi toward Keti Bander and Indus brook delta.
23
2.3. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Forestry
Climate Change affecting the agriculture sector and forestry, so the food security is going to be not
balanced and fulfill for for needs and the temperature is arsing due to deforestation. So the impact on
Agriculture and forestry is described below.
2.3.1. Agriculture Sector
Agriculture is a key economic sector that contributes 21% to the coarse domectic effect (GDP),
employs 45% of the utter employees and contributes about 60% to exports. The total cropped
area is 23.4 million hectares (Mha), in place of 29% of the full amount reported area32 of which
irrigated areas compose up 18.63 Mha (24% of the full amount irrigated area) with the
percentage by realm of 77% in Punjab, 14% in Sindh, 5% in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and 4% in
Balochistan.33 Currently, 3.8 Mha are under Sailaba/Rod-Kohi, riverine, and Barani agricultural
systems generally called the craze irrigation undeveloped system.34 The latent part under rash
irrigation is estimated to be around 6.935 Mha, not speaking as follows: 4.68 Mha in
Balochistan, 0.862 Mha in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 0.571 Mha in Punjab, and 0.551 Mha in Sindh.
Crops are categorized into two: rabi and kharif. Rabi crops are sown in autumn (October
December) and harvested in mechanism (MarchApril). Wheat is the foremost rabi crop. Crops
which sown in summer are called kharif crops. The kharif crop period is in general longer in
Pakistan, preliminary with sugarcane in February, line in MarchMay, rice in JuneJuly and
maize in JulyAugust. The key patterns are: (i) ricewheat, (ii) maizewheat, (iii) cottonwheat,
(iv) sugarcane wheat, and (v) coarse grain-wheat, and approximately other small patterns.
Crops grown-up in in cooperation irrigated areas and individuals under craze undeveloped
systems are substantially touchy to the quantity of hose down on hand and fever variability. It is
estimated that with get out of bed of fever (+0.50C20C), agricultural productivity will cut by
around 8%10% by 2040. numerous simulation studies, by the cropgrowth simulation model,
estimated a fall in yield of key crops, expressly for wheat and rice, and the extent of increasing
time in four agroclimatic zones of Pakistan . The standard predicted the major cut of around 14
time for 10C growth in hotness in the mounting season’s part of wheat in the northern colossal
district compared to southern Pakistan.
2
Climate Development Knowledge Network (CDKN). http://cdkn.org/project/renewable-energy-
solutions-punjabsindustrial-sector-evaluating-nama-approach-sialkot-city/
3
9 R. Tariq and G.R. Athar. Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Sector of Pakistan. Pakistan Atomic
Energy Commission. http://nijesr.iefr.edu.pk/journalFolder/6/8e6bd.pdf
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2.3.2. Forestry Sector
Forests are an main true store purposely in the perspective of rural livelihood. It provides timber,
fuelwood, food, home for wildlife, and a choice of of great consequence ecological unit services,
such as explanatory carbon dioxide, and calculating or sinking cyclones and storms in coastal
areas. woodland matter in Pakistan is 4.19 Mha, in place of 5% of the compute territory area.
Coastal mangrove forests prolong over 132,000 ha, in lieu of about 3% of the plant topic of
Pakistan. The Indus Delta on your own chains 97% of the calculate mangrove forests and is
birthplace to over one million people, 135,000 of which depend on mangroves for their
occupation. It is predicted that for the most part of the anticipated impacts of climate change,
such as SLR,change in high temperature and precipitation, and ever-increasing frequency and
intensity of excessive events, will distress the afforest severely, threatening the biodiversity
status, and soil quality.
2.4. Climate Change Impacts on Water Sector in Pakistan
The water sector is one of the most sensitive sectors to the impacts of climate change. Pakistan
has the world’s largest contiguous Indus Basin Irrigation System that is largely dependent on
precipitation, glaciers and snow melt, and ground water abstraction. The primary sources of
water are rainfall during the monsoon season (50 million acre feet [MAF]), and river inflows
(142 MAF) in the IRS. Ground water contributes around 48% of surface water available at the
canal head of the irrigation system. Water is mostly used in agriculture (92%), industries (3%),
and domestic infrastructure (5%). It is expected that in the future, sector water demand will
increase due to socioeconomic development and the increase in population.Impacts of declining
glacier mass on river discharge as a result of climate change will be additional extensive in the
Indus hand basin as of the high point fraction of discharges from meltadditiona This may basis
considerable variations in coming fill with tears quantity in the IRS. Western Himalayan glaciers
are projected to refuge during the subsequently 50 being primarily causing improve of Indus
stream flows. Then, the glacier reservoirs will be empty, follow-on in the cut of flows by as
greatly as 30% to 40% over the subsequently 50 years. Based on surveys between 1997 and
2002, it is reported that a quantity of of the corpulent Karakoram glaciers4070 km in
lengthexhibit 515 m of thickening over ample ablation zone areas.45 These conflicting
findings manufacture the brunt of climate adjustmenton Karakoram glaciers and Indus canal
flows doubtful.
2.5. Climate Change Impacts on Energy Sector
The energy sector is the foremost contributor to climate exchange through its great GHG
emissions and is besides
finely tuned to its impacts. It is predicted that rising population, lucrative growth, and altering
patterns of use counting rising claim for flavor conditioning in the summer months will probable
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step upenergy call and therefore intensify GHG emissions from the energy sector in Pakistan.In
Pakistan, the energy sector is the main contributor of GHG emissions. In 2012, energy sector
emissions accounted for 46% of the aggregate native GHG emissions stock. The chief liable
contact of climate amend on the energy sector is predicted to be changes in rain patterns,
temperatures rising, and furthest conditions events. The country’s recent energy requests are
sturdily needy on lubricate and gab despite the fact that the plead outlying exceeds supply,
therefore translating into a stern energy disaster that has crippled the country since 2006. The
leading sources of energy in the country were chatter (48%), lubricate (32%), hydropower
(31%), coal(7%), and nuclear energy (2%) in 2013 . Pakistan is the prime consumer of chatter in
the territory little it has the sixth chief lake of coal in the world. But the energy dependency on
gas and oil are greater compared to coal. It is estimated that equal with moderate gab
consumption,funds will be tired by 2025. The household sector(47%) consumes the largest
4
portion of energy, followed by industries (29%), crop growing (10%),and other marketable
users. To make certain energy security, the leadership is paying concentration to other energy
sources plus wind, solar, and minute hydropower plants, but a good number of the projects are
unmoving in the pipeline With climate amend in the future, the energy sector will on the whole
be precious by extremist wear away dealings such as flooding, storm surges, and famine that will
assume energy sources, and the distribute and dissemination infrastructure. Pakistan’s irrigate
assets are at dangerous hazard to climate change.
2.6. Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Areas
It is expected that sea level impacts on the coastal areas and its property may be huge as by now
evident in the flood of low-lying areas, degradation of mangrove forests, declining drinking
irrigate quality, and drop in seek and shrimp productivity.50 Pakistan has a 1,046 km-longshore
that stretches next to the border of the Arabian Sea in the South of the country diminishing
inside the administrative boundaries of the provinces of Sindh and Balochistan. The Sindh
coastal zone’s defenselessness is measured advanced than that of the Balochistan coastal areas
for the reason that of its tidal even countryside and elevated populace concentration with evident
built-up actions by the side of coastal areas, such as Karachi. A 2-m SLR is estimated to dip
7,500 km2 in the Indus Delta.The low-lying Balochistan coastal areas, such as Pasni, may as
well be impacted by SLR since the norm sea raze to the ground in the coastal civic of Pasni is
about 1.4 m. However, the Balochistan coast is tectonically functioning and is uplifted at the
speed of 12 mm/year right and proper to subduction of the Indian Ocean plate. The bank in sea
horizontal is and estimated to multiply the fee of wearing away by the side of the coastal belt.
The creeks in the delta regions such as Hajamaro, Ghoro, Kaanhir, and Kahhar are the dynamic
attrition hotspots with wearing away degree ranging from 31 m/year to 176 m/year.
4
T. M. A. Khan and M. M. Rabbani. Sea Level Monitoring and Study of Sea Level Variations Along Pakistan Coast: A
Component of Integrated Coastal Zone Management. 2000. http://www.loiczsouthasia.org/pdfdocuments/ge9-
meeting-report-pakistan.pdf
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2.7. Climate Change Impacts on Transport and Urban Sector
A nation’s economy is highly dependent on the system of transportation, which relies on
infrastructure and vehicles. Alongside other infrastructure, climate cash moreover affects
transport-correlated skin texture of an field as these armed forces are and located in the identical
geographical location. In municipal areas with dense populations and from top to toe stress for
travel, the setting are demanding as compared to inhabited rural areas in Pakistan. suitable to
mature infrastructure of airports, ports, railway systems, and highways; beside with
overpopulation, and cost-effective and environmental pressures, haulage systems are under
noteworthy stress in Pakistan. The minder climatic events, which produce difficult flooding or
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snowfall, compel adverse personal property on the carrying system. Similarly, in gigantic areas,
landslides canister disrupt moving systems for comprehensive periods. Sea height set in motion
in adding up to storm heave during excessive endure actions container and intensification the
frequency and enormity of floods in coastal areas. These dealings of flooding, brine intrusion,
and decay owing to storm surges and wave action be capable of chief to profound harm to
coastal moving infrastructure. top be an average of temperatures and ultimate fever
measures may too impairment or give way the structural integrity of transfer networks, plus
bridges and toll road surfaces.
Climate change has potential to affect both environmental and social determinants of health
safe drinking water, cleanse air, adequate food, and confident shelter. This may ply out through
furthest boil events, instinctive disasters, and up-and-down rain patterns. roast wave proceedings
are projected to enlarge equally in frequency and duration. The passion wave of Karachi in June
2015 took additional than 1,200 person lives in Karachi alone, and about 200 lives in other parts
of the Sindh Province. In Karachi, a limit hotness of 44.8°C was recorded which is the second
chief fever after 1979. In Pakistan, excitement waves are universal in the premonsoon months
(MayJune) in the plains of the country. The variations in precipitation and fever were
interconnected with the broaden of atypical catching diseases and cooking security. During the
floods in 2010, in a preliminary study by UNDP, it was found that the proportion of population
below the minimum level of dietary energy consumption increased by 3%, thereby adding an
additional 5 million to the population of undernourished people. Similarly, extreme events were
correlated with the mental health of the affected. population, i.e., extreme events generally cause
depression, distress, aggression, etc.59 With the rise of temperature, the risk of water-borne and
vector-borne diseases also increases. Higher numbers of dengue and malaria cases are due to
changes in temperature and heavy precipitation,possibly resulting in the increased number of
breeding sites for mosquitoes.
5
S. M. Malik et al. A Study of the Effects of Climate Change on Human Health in Pakistan: Evidence-Based Policy
Advocacy. SightSavers. 2011. http://pk.sightsavers.org/in_depth/policy_and_research/15837_climatechange.pdf
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2.8. Institutional Arrangements for Climate Change
The role and importance of strong institutions to address climate change is highly acknowledged
to mainstream the problem in education policies and programs.Strong institutions promote
adapting to climate change and at last transform the system by building resilience. However,
developing countries , including Pakistan, suffer from inefficient and weak institutional
structures, ultimately yielding poor governance systems. Pakistan signed and ratified 14
international environmental commitments between 19712001, including the United Nations
Framework Convention for Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol, which acted as stimuli in
initiating and guiding the policy processes and efforts on climate change in the country.
2.9. Disaster Risk Management Arrangements
At present, the institutional setup for disaster risk reduction in the country is a prime
representative of the cross-sector mainstreaming of climate change in government. This is
evident from its effective and prioritized mainstreaming through appropriate policy, legal and
institutional arrangements, and implementing strategies and programs to minimize risks and
vulnerabilities. The NDMA serves under the Ministry of Climate Change.The NDMA suffers
from a lack of a separate and dedicated budget line and keen make financial arrangements line,
hence, its response to imperil easing is for the most part imprudent and on an commercial hoc
basis. Also, the institutional incapability arises from the not have of entr?e to researches on
climate cash impacts, and discrete adaptation and/or alleviation plans.
2.10. The Ministry of Climate Change
The Ministry of Climate Change is the focal institution for climate change in Pakistan. It evolved
from the Ministry of Environment after the 18th constitutional amendment, in 2010, when the
Ministry of Environment ceased to be real as it should be to decentralization of authorization to
local governments. The environment is instantly under the area of the local governments, but
climate change remains federal, known the basic for a state-owned rejoinder and illustration in
international climate change negotiations. The Ministry of Climate Change handles and support
both the clean development mechanisms (CDM) and dipping Emissions from Deforestation and
jungle Degradation (REDD+) initiatives in the country. Guided by the CDM Strategy (2006), the
CDM cabal inside the agency of Climate modification is the designated countrywide evidence
(DNA) on CDM projects in the country. The strategy allows for unilateral, bilateral, and joint
CDM projects, if at all possible in the areas of energy, plus renewable energy, energy efficiency,
energy conservation, and fossil- fueled cogeneration; gain use, terrestrial take advantage of
change, and forestry (e.g., biodiversity protection, soil conservation, defining moment
maintenance and sustainable wooded area and rangeland management); agricultural and pigs
practices; bare management (e.g., landfills, concrete surplus management,
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6
ADB. 2015. Fact Sheet for Pakistan. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/27786/pak-2015.pdf
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recycling, being and farm animals wastes); hauling (e.g., marginal fuel vehicles, stack transit
systems, cleaner engines, compressed physical gas); and built-up processes.
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Source: Climate Techwiki. http://www.climatetechwiki.org/
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3.0. Socio-Economic Threats Posed by Climate
Change
Climate change has affected scoio_economic security of Pakistan very badly. Climate change is
harming the surviving needs of pakistan directly and the people of pakistan facing a number of
problems due to climate change. Owing to food shortage death ratio is increasing. Pure water is
still need because floods have mixed the wastage and dirt in pure water and different sever
diseases are increasing.
3.1. Food, Water, Health
Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the impacts of climate change.
The risks it faces are worsen by high rates of food and nutrition. As the climate continues to
change, weather patterns strengthen new unpredictable and intense climate-related disasters more
frequent, rates of food security will rise even higher. Climate change is likely to have a
significant impact on completely facets of food security in Pakistan i.e. availability, access,
utilization and stability. Further Pakistan can face food shortages due to water scarcity. Forty
seven percent of the whole population of is food insecure, as access to food is uneven and
malnutrition is widespread. Food production depends significantly an irrigation, counting the
help of extensive volumes of water from stressed aquifers. A continuous trend leads to
unsustainable ground water use. By 2025, the shortfall of water requirements will be 32 %,
which may cause food shortages of 70 million tons.
Common episodes of extreme weather events in Pakistan, like flooding, droughts and abrupt
change in temperature may at once and indirectly affect the public health in terms of physical
injuries, mental stress or infectious diseases. In Pakistan, 2010, flood is the recent event of
climate change. It affected almost 14_20 million peoples and 1,700 deaths, 1156 deaths were
recorded in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Conflicts induced by Climate Change
3.2. Climate Change Induced Conlicts in Pakistan
India and Pakistan are the bitter rivals over water both have nuclear weapons in their
arsenal 411 deaths in Sindh, 110 in Punjab and very low deaths reported in Baluchistan. There
are several diseases, acute diarrhea, respiratory and skin infection like Malaria, Tetanus and Viral
Hemorrhagic Fever. A lot of deaths occurred in Thar and Baluchistan due to heat waves.
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.The two countries allow a slow but tense deal over distribution water from the Indus River and
its tributaries. Waters from the Indus, which pour from India and the in disputed Kashmir
locality into Pakistan, were impressed up between India and Pakistan under the 1960 Indus water
Treaty (IWT).The IWT divides the six main rivers of the Indus basin between Pakistan and
India. Pakistan was contracted rights to largely of the water in the region's western rivers the
Indus, Jhelum and Chenab which flow through Indian-administered Kashmir. The dispute
over the Kashmir region a flashpoint between India and Pakistan for more than six decades
is hugely entwined with water security. mutually countries request the entire region, but both
no more than reins a segregate of it.While the IWT has managed to go on the wars and other
hostilities, it is increasingly personality tense to its limit. Pakistan has accused India of throttling
its irrigate quantity and violating the IWT by constructing dams over the rivers flowing into
Pakistan from Kashmir.
"Any country with nuclear weapons, if they're backed into a area for the reason that they give
rise to no fill with tears that's genuinely dangerous," said Jeff Nesbit, person responsible and
executive director of non-profit climate interaction regulation Climate Nexus. For Pakistan, the
Indus waters are a lifeline: most of the country depends on it as the main spring of freshwater
and it ropes 90 percent of the country's agricultural industry.And whereas Pakistan was
painstaking moderately plenteous with water, a mixture of mismanaged irrigation, water-
intensive cultivation and climate cash has cheap the Indus to a dribble in parts. A 2018 report
from the intercontinental monetary fund ranked Pakistan third in the midst of countries facing
harsh irrigate shortages.When the rapidly-melting glaciers in the Himalayas which give to eat the
Indus waters eventually disappear as predicted, the deteriorating rivers will be slashed unvarying
further. Instead of it migration also helping conflicts to emrge in pakistan.
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4.0 Mitigation Measures
A government of pakistan working to mitigate the effects of climate change according to tha
policy. The main objectives of the Pakistan’s climate change policy include:
To pursue sustained economic growth by appropriately addressing the challenges of climate
change
To integrate climate change policy with other inter_related national policies
To focus on pro_poor gender sensitive adaptation while also promoting mitigation to the extent
possible in a cost_effective manners
To ensure water security, food security and energy security of the country in tha face of the
challenges Posed by Climate Change
To minimize the risks arising from the expected increase in frequency and intensity of extreme
weather events such as floods, droughts and tropical storms
To strength inter_ministrerial decision making and coordination mechanisms on climate change
To facilitate effective use of the opportunities, particularly financial, available both nationally
and internationally
To Foster the development of appropriate economic incentives to encourage public and private
sector investment in adaptation measures.
According to the scientific prediction, mitigation measures we take at some level doesn’t matter
bacause climate change will continue to affect owing to the atmospheric changes. As these
changes become more intense people have to protect themselves and increase their resilience to
survive.
4.1 Recommendations for Forestry
Undertake urgent reforestation and afforestation programmes on mountain slopes. Northern
areas state suffered dangerous deforestation right and proper to a not have of open to electricity
and true gas. The Billion-tree Tsunami struggle is a blameless edge but requests to be scaled up
in the long-term. The communities and the common free in addition require to be engaged in
lion's share agricultural estate drives across the country.
4.2 Recommendations for Protecting Water Resources
Build dams in Thar to store rainwater. During our travels, we came across a barrier in
Nagarparkar human being old as a cricket pitch for the reason that the direction did not consult
dwell in and unnoticed their acquaintance of everywhere to paramount form it. Sometimes, the
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clarification is as effortless as asking the people. They live nearby and engage in a attractive
decent intention of come again? solutions would exertion in their context.
Devise and employ a unused management strategy for colossal areas. Since mountain
communities come up with nowhere to dispose of their waste, they end up up also throwing it in
the rivers, burning the barren in sweeping heavens (which contributes to black carbon affidavit
on glaciers and accelerates their melting) or burying it underground (which resurfaces in the
outcome of a instinctive ruin and adds to offered risks). individual waste away disposal systems
and awareness (especially for tourists) know how to benefit assuage conservatory gab emissions,
tone pollution and disaster risk.
4.3 Recommendations for Vehicles
Ban diesel vehicles in the mountains. An escalating amount of tourists visiting the lovely
mountains in the north opt for via diesel (the on the whole inefficient fuel) in their four-wheelers.
The particulate topic emitted by the shortened burning of fuels at such great altitudes absolutely
contributes to the express melting of glaciers, so accelerating climate transformation and
aggravation the health of people.
4.4 Recommendations for Energy Resources
Switch to renewable energy sources. We tolerate enormous promise for solar energy in Thar and
hydropower in the north which canister offer clean, cost-effective and continual energy.
These efforts are urgently required, but it is also important to recognise that the onus for change
is not completely on the government. We, as aware citizens, need to demand action on these
issues and work closely with governmental and non-governmental institutions to ensure that
these measures get implemented. It is time to shun passivity and take an active part in climate
advocacy.
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5.0 Conclusion
The unclear and unpredictable environment of climate amend poses an further challenge to rule
makers who are tuned to building decisions based upon chronological and established
denominators. wealth remained a challenge. The intercontinental refuge environment injunction
great will bite the bullet threats and pressures from climate change. Climate change, interacting
with other risks to intercontinental security, is apt to grasp the best collision on unstable,
conflict-prone, and strategically-significant regions. opinionated and demographic realities,
mutual with climate change, fare and stream insecurity, imply that the inner East, North, East
and key Africa, as nicely as a selection of nations in innermost Asia, will tackle momentous
sanctuary risks from a shifting climate. However, a emergent coastal and municipal people in the
broader Asia-Pacific region, coupled with projected climate change-exacerbated stresses on hose
down security, channel that the nations of the Asia-Pacific