anyone help me with this statistics please...........................

timer Asked: Apr 10th, 2015

Question description

Inthe1980s,randomdrug-testingpoliciesdesignedtoidentify individuals whowereusingillegaldrugs  becamepopular within governmentand civilianorganiza- tions. Hereisasummary ofthefactscitedbytheleaderofafictitious “XYZorganiza- tion” tosupportsuchpolicies:

• Druguseisaseriousproblem for(XYZorganization)and  wecannot tolerate drug userswithin ourranks.  Consequently,Iwanteachdivisionleader  tosendat least  five individuals perweekforrandom drug testing.  The test is99%accurate inidentifyingdrugusers. Nowwecanfindthedrugusersandseparate them fromtheorganization.


•There’snoplacein(XYZorganization)forthe1%whoaredrugusers. UsingBayes’Rule,evaluate theefficacyofsuchadrugtesting policy:

a)Assumepriorprobabilitiesof1%fordrug usersand 99%fornon-drug userswithin the populationofXYZ.(The seniorleader said,1%ofthe XYZpopulationconsistsof drugusers).

b)A“positive” drugtestindicates thatanindividual islikelyadruguser. A“negative”

result indicatesthattheindividual islikelynotadruguser.

c)Assumethatanindividual whoactually usesillegaldrugs willtest positive 99%of the time, and anon-drug usertests positive 1%ofthe time whenarandom drug test isadministered.Conversely, anon-drug userwilltest negative 99%ofthe time, and a

druguserwilltest negative 1%ofthetime.

d)Estimatethe probabilitythatanindividual isinfactadrug userifadrug test ad- ministered totheindividual results ina“positive.”

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