Unit 5 introduces the concept of probability and defines it. We frequently use probability in our daily lives to make decisions when we are not sure about the outcome. Read the following mind-boggling famous problem and decide.“The Monty Hall problem" is a famous probability related conundrum faced by participants on the game show Let’s make a deal that premiered in 1963 and is still running some markets around the world. At the end of each day’s show, a contestant was invited to stand with host Monty Hall facing three big doors: Door no. 1, Door no.2, and Door no.3. Monty explained to the contestant that there was a highly desirable prize behind one of the doors and a goat behind the other two doors. The player chose the three doors and would get a prize whatever was behind it. The initial probability of winning was straight forward. There were three two goats and one car. As the participant stood facing the doors with Monty, he or she had a 1 in 3 chance of choosing the door that would be opened to reveal the car. However, Let’s make a deal that had a twist, which is why the show was immortalized in the probability literature. After the contestant chooses a door, Monty would open one of the two doors that the contestant had not picked, always revealing a goat. At that point, Monty would ask the contestant if he would like to change his pick-to switch from the closed door that he had picked originally to the other remaining closed door. For the sake of example, assume that the player has chosen Door no. 1. Monty would then open-Door no. 3; the live goat would be standing there on stage. Two doors would still be closed, nos. 1 and 2. If the valuable prize was behind no. 1, the contestant would win; if it was behind no. 2, he would lose. But then things got more interesting: Monty would turn to the player and ask whether he would like to change his mind and switch doors (from no. 1 to no. 2 in this case). Remember, both doors were still closed, and the only new information the contestant had received was that a goat showed up behind one of the doors that he didn’t pick.”For this discussion:Address the following question in your post:• Should the contestant switch the door? Make sure to discuss the reasons why he needs to switch or not switch.

A marketing company based out of New York City is doing well and is looking to expand internationally. The CEO and VP of Operations decide to enlist the help of a consulting firm that you work for, to help collect data and analyze market trends. You work for Mercer Human Resources. The Mercer Human Resource Consulting website (www.mercer.com) lists prices of certain items in selected cities around the world. They also report an overall cost-of-living index for each city compared to the costs of hundreds of items in New York City (NYC). For example, London at 88.33 is 11.67% less expensive than NYC.More specifically, if you choose to explore the website further you will find a lot of fun and interesting data. You can explore the website more on your own after the course concludes.https://mobilityexchange.mercer.com/Insights/cost-of-living-rankings#rankingsIn the Excel document, you will find the 2018 data for 17 cities in the data set Cost of Living. Included are the 2018 cost of living index, cost of a 3-bedroom apartment (per month), price of monthly transportation pass, price of a mid-range bottle of wine, price of a loaf of bread (1 lb.), the price of a gallon of milk and price for a 12 oz. cup of black coffee. All prices are in U.S. dollars.You use this information to run a Multiple Linear Regression to predict Cost of living, along with calculating various descriptive statistics. This is given in the Excel output (that is, the MLR has already been calculated. Your task is to interpret the data). Based on this information, in which city should you open a second office in? You must justify your answer. If you want to recommend 2 or 3 different cities and rank them based on the data and your findings, this is fine as well. This should be ¾ to 1 page, no more than 1 single-spaced page in length, using 12-point Times New Roman font. You do not need to do any calculations, but you do need to pick a city to open a second location at and justify your answer based upon the provided results of the Multiple Linear Regression. What is an Executive Summary?Think of this assignment as the first page of a much longer report, known as an Executive Summary, that essentially summarizes your findings briefly and at a high level. This needs to be written up neatly and professionally. This would be something you would present at a board meeting in a corporate environment.To help you make this decision here are some things to consider:Based on the MLR output, what variable(s) is/are significant? From the significant predictors, review the mean, median, min, max, Q1 and Q3 values? It might be a good idea to compare these values to what the New York value is for that variable. Remember New York is the baseline as that is where headquarters are located.Based on the descriptive statistics, for the significant predictors, what city/cities has the best potential? What city or cities fall above or below the median and/or the mean? What city or cities are in the upper 3rd quartile? Or the bottom quartile? These are some things to consider not necessarily questions you need to answer in your Executive Summary. But they are questions to help guide you along in your analysis.Supporting documents:https://edge.apus.edu/access/content/attachment/424212/Assignments/11adcab4-fb2a-41cf-84ac-72e0695762eb/Math%20302%20Final%20Project.xlsx

Multiple Regression in PracticeFor this Assignment, you will continue your practice as a critical consumer of research. You will critically evaluate a scholarly article related to multiple regression.To prepare for this Assignment:Use the Course Guide and Assignment Help found in this week’s Learning Resources and search for a quantitative article that includes multiple regression testing.For this Assignment:Write a 2- to 3-page critique of the article. In your critique, include responses to the following:Why did the authors use multiple regression?Do you think it’s the most appropriate choice? Why or why not?Did the authors display the data?Do the results stand alone? Why or why not?Use proper APA format, citations, and referencing.