Certainty Principle

timer Asked: May 28th, 2015

Question description

It is time for you to serve Jury Duty (most people do not like serving Jury Duty).  Nonetheless, 1000 people (including yourself) have been selected for duty.  Of these, 600 will be considered alternates (can stay home or at work) while the remaining 400 will have to go down to the court house and check in.  Thus, there is a 40% chance (400/1000) that you will have to go to the court house.  For $50 you can reduce your chance of serving from 40% to 25%.  For $100, you can reduce your chance of serving from 15% to 0%.  Which deal sounds better?  Why?

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