# EWMA time series question with plots and i have no idea what to do

**Question description**

01020-303QuarterPercent Change Edit Coordinates...(0,0) x y graphwequals=0.30.3 | The plots to the left and right show exponentially weighted moving averages (EWMA) of the percentage change of a country's gross national product (GNP). The time series is quarterly for a five-year period. To the left, the weight w in the EWMA is 0.30.3, andwequals=0.80.8 to the right. The EWMA in both cases is shown as a line and the surrounding data as dots. Complete parts a through c below. | 01020-303QuarterPercent Change Edit Coordinates...(0,0) x y graphwequals=0.80.8 |

(a) Which smoothing constant do you think produces a better summary of the underlying trend in the percentage changes in GNP?

The EWMA with

wequals=

captures less random variation.

(b) In the most recent quarter (the last data point in this series), the GNP was estimated to be

$11.18111.181

billionbillion.

What would you forecast, having seen these plots, for GNP for the next quarter?The GNP for the next quarter should be about

$nothing

billionbillion.

(Round to three decimal places as needed.)

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