# Business & Finanace

**Question description**

**Scenario:** You are still a consultant for the Excellent Consulting Group. You have completed the first assignment, developing and testing a forecasting method based on linear regression (Case 3). However, your consulting manager at ECG wants to go the next step and investigate another forecasting method. It is important to do a thorough job for the client, and you have the expertise to analyze different forecasting methods. You have decided to look at the sales data for client’s lottery app as a single data set and use a time series analysis, namely SES, single exponential smoothing.

### Case Assignment

Using Excel, use the forecasted sales from Case 3 to compute the MAPE, by doing the following:

- Find the MAPE for the first 12 months (assume the forecast for Month 1 – or January – is equal to January’s actual sales). To find the MAPE, you will need to compare actual sales for each month, or Y(t), to forecasted sales, or F(t).
- Next, forecast the sales for the next three months (Feb - Apr), and compute the MAPE for this 3-month period. Compare this 3-month MAPE to the MAPE you calculated for the SES analysis (Case 4).

Then write a report to your boss that briefly describes the results that you obtained. Make a final recommendation on which method to use, SES or Linear Regression.

**Data:** Use the data that you previously have and generated from your analyses in Case 3.

### Assignment Expectations

**Analysis**

- Accurate and complete SES analysis in Excel.

**Written Report**

- Length requirements =
(not including Cover and Reference pages)*4*pages minimum*–*5 - Provide a brief introduction/ background of the problem.
- Complete and accurate Excel analysis.
- Written analysis that supports Excel analysis, and provides thorough discussion of assumptions, rationale, and logic used.
- Complete, meaningful, and accurate recommendation(s).

## Tutor Answer

Brown University

1271 Tutors

California Institute of Technology

2131 Tutors

Carnegie Mellon University

982 Tutors

Columbia University

1256 Tutors

Dartmouth University

2113 Tutors

Emory University

2279 Tutors

Harvard University

599 Tutors

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2319 Tutors

New York University

1645 Tutors

Notre Dam University

1911 Tutors

Oklahoma University

2122 Tutors

Pennsylvania State University

932 Tutors

Princeton University

1211 Tutors

Stanford University

983 Tutors

University of California

1282 Tutors

Oxford University

123 Tutors

Yale University

2325 Tutors