Probability Concepts

Anonymous

Question description

1. What is a time-series forecasting model?

2. What is the difference between a causal model and a time-series

model?

3. What are some of the problems and drawbacks of the moving

average forecasting model?

4.What effect does the value of the smoothing constant have on the

weight given to the past forecast and the past observed value?

5.What is MAD, and why is it important in the selection and use of

forecasting models?

5-21 Sales of Cool-Man air conditioners have grown

during the past 5 years:

YEAR SALES

1 450

2 495

3 518

4 563

5 584

6 ?

that year 1’s sales would be 410 air conditioners. Using

exponential smoothing with a weight of α = 0.30, develop

forecasts for years 2 through 6.

5-22 Using smoothing constants of 0.6 and 0.9, develop

forecasts for the sales of Cool-Man air conditioners (see Problem

5-21).

5-23 What effect did the smoothing constant have on the

forecast for Cool-Man air conditioners? (See Problems 5-21 and

5-22.) Which smoothing constant gives the most accurate

forecast?

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