# Urgent Probability Question!

Anonymous

Question description

```Suppose a test for Lyme disease is positive with probability 0.9 if a
person has Lyme disease, and with probability 0.05 if they do not have Lyme.
If a person is bitten by a deer tick, the CDC says the probability of getting
Lyme is about 0.01. Suppose a person is bitten by a deer tick and takes the test.
If the test is positive, what is the conditional probability that the person has Lyme?
Hint: construct a table of 10,000 people who obey these probabilities exactly.
Alternately, you could make a tree that splits first on Lyme or No Lyme, and then
on Positive and Negative.
```

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