Bayesian statistics using WINBUGS

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х 2 ma890assess8pdf.pdf - Adobe Reader File Edit View Window Help Open / 2 + 139% | B9 | || Tools Fill & Sign Comment The results below show the results of 22 clinical trials involving heart attack patients. The patients in each trial were allocated to either receive beta-blockers (Treated) or not receive beta-blockers (Control). There are a large number of factors that can be different between the trials. For example, there may be differences in the exact dose of beta-blockers, in the regularity of check-ups by doctors, or in the characteristics of patients taking part in the trials. Therefore, the trials can be considered similar rather than exactly the same. Study 1 2 3 స్ UI | లు 4 BOOT CON Control Deaths Total 3 39 14 116 11 93 127 1520 27 365 6 52 152 939 48 471 37 282 188 1921 52 583 Treated Deaths Total 38 7 114 5 69 102 1533 28 355 4 59 98 945 60 632 25 278 138 1916 64 873 d IFN 3 ENG 09:23 25/03/2017 a -Ö Q х 2 ma890assess8pdf.pdf - Adobe Reader File Edit View Window Help Open 1/2 + 139% 1 IA Tools Fill & Sign Comment 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 52 47 16 45 31 38 12 6 583 266 293 883 147 213 122 154 134 218 364 674 64 45 9 57 25 33 28 8 873 263 291 858 154 207 251 151 174 209 391 680 6 3 40 43 39 32 27 22 a) Write down an appropriate Bayesian hierarchical model for the number of deaths in the Control groups of the studies and discuss its assumptions. Write WinBUGS code to fit the model. Check the convergence and mixing of the chains and report your results. What do you conclude about differences in death rates in the Control groups in these studies? [70%] Please turn over IEX 11 d C a ENG Ic 09:23 25/03/2017 -Ö Q х 2 ma890assess8pdf.pdf - Adobe Reader File Edit View Window Help Open 139% Tools Fill & Sign Comment 2 / 2 + results. What do you conclude about differences in death rates in the Control groups in these studies? [70%] Please turn over b) The purpose of these studies is to decide whether there is a lower rate of deaths in the Treated group than the Control group. Write down and discuss an appropriate hierarchical model for both the Control and Treated patients. [30%] IEX . は d Ic ENG 09:23 25/03/2017 -Ö Q
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Part a
The following is a hierarchical model for count data
study
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22

control
treated
deaths
total
deaths
total
3
39
3
38
14
116
7
114
11
93
5
114
127
1520
102
1533
2...


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