Game Theory, Health Economics

Anonymous
timer Asked: Apr 17th, 2017

Question description

Box 14-1 on page 288 of FGS describes how game theory helps explain the "medical arms race” among hospitals up to about 20 years ago.

(1) Explain what a "dominant strategy” is in game theory.

(2) Using Box 14-1, replace the "Adopt, Adopt" entry (first row, first column) with 300, 300. Replace the "Do Not Adopt, Do Not Adopt" entry (second row, second column) with 50, 50. Does A have a dominant strategy? Does B? What is the solution to this game?

(3) Why is the medical arms race less a problem today than it once was?

(Tip: In order to determine what strategy a "player” should adopt, the player asks, "If B adopts, then what should I do? If B does NOT adopt, then what should I do?” Both players in the game approach the selection of their strategy in this way.)

Hospitals and Long-Term Care Chapter 14 Chapter Outline • • • • • • • 14-2 Background and Overview of Hospitals Hospital Utilization and Costs Closures, Mergers, and Restructuring Quality of Care Nursing Homes Hospice, Home Health, and Informal Care Conclusions © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Overview • In 2008, there were 5,815 hospitals with close to 1 million beds in the United States. Of the 15.5 million persons employed at all health service sites in 2009, 6.3 million were employed at hospitals. • At the same time, the aging of the population has created a major challenge for the adequate provision of long-term care. 14-3 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. BACKGROUND AND OVERVIEW OF HOSPITALS Table 14-1 Hospital Data 14-4 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Types of Hospitals • Four types: – – – – 14-5 Length of stay (short-term or long-term) Type (community, teaching, mental, etc.) Ownership (private for-profit or public nonprofit) Size (number of beds) © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. History • Hospitals date back to ancient Egypt and Greece. • Since then, places of healing in many countries were organized by religious establishments. • Early hospitals in the United States were associated with the poor or with mental and infectious diseases, and medicine was practiced mainly at the home. • The modern U.S. hospital emerged at the turn of the twentieth century. • Urbanization and the rise of an urban middle class helped to accelerate the development of the modern hospital. 14-6 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Organization • The typical nonprofit community hospital is governed by a board of trustees that selects the president and approves most major decisions. • The hospital’s decision-making power rests with the medical staff rather than the administrators or the board. • To deal with the conflicts and cost pressures created by the traditional system, more hospitals now rely on permanent physician-employees who are paid salaries or combinations of salaries and bonuses, the latter driven by various incentives. 14-7 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Recent Changes • Due to declining inpatient utilization, many smaller hospitals have closed while others have merged or reorganized. • Hospitals face considerable pressure to join networks of providers in order to participate in managed care plans and to become diversified health care centers with expanded primary care facilities. • Many hospitals have concentrated resources on freestanding outpatient surgery units and other outpatient programs such as cardiac rehabilitation. 14-8 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Regulation and Accreditation • Professional standards review organizations (PSROs) were established by the federal government in 1971 to monitor quality while limiting utilization. • In 1984, PSROs were replaced by Peer Review Organizations (PROs). • In 2002 PROs were replaced by quality improvement organizations (QIOs), intended to monitor and improve care. 14-9 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Regulation and Accreditation • Medicare’s prospective payments system (PPS) and various forms of state rate regulation set limits on hospital reimbursement. • Certificate-of-Need (CON) laws limit capital spending, and hospitals are subject to antitrust laws intended to promote competition. 14-10 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Regulation and Accreditation • Most hospitals and many other health care facilities seek accreditation from the Joint Commission on the Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations (JCAHO). To maintain accreditation, the hospital must undergo an on-site review every three years. • Many third-party payers reimburse only for care provided in accredited hospitals. 14-11 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. HOSPITAL UTILIZATION AND COSTS Table 14-2 Hospital and Nursing Home Costs 14-12 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Competition and Costs • Some analysts suggest that the hospital market is an exception to the standard paradigm. They argue that hospital competition has encouraged an unproductive and costly medical arms race (MAR) with unnecessary duplication of expensive capital equipment as well as unnecessary expenditures on advertising in order to attract patients. Competition also may create pressure to fill beds through questionable admissions. 14-13 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Current Situation • This situation has greatly changed over the past two decades. Hospitals as well as insurance companies must compete for their managed care business through price and quality. Hospitals also are now reimbursed by many major third-party payers on a prospective basis at rates that are independent of their actual costs. 14-14 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Empirical Evidence • Kessler and McClellan (2000) examined the effects of hospital competition on the costs and outcomes for Medicare beneficiaries who incurred heart attacks and found that, prior to 1991, competition improved outcomes in some cases, but also raised costs. After 1990, there were substantial decreases in costs and substantial improvements in outcomes. 14-15 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. More Empirical Evidence • Zwanziger and Mooney (2005) studied HMOs in New York State which until 1996 regulated the rates (determined largely by historical costs) private insurers were required to pay for inpatient care. After the 1996 reforms, HMOs were able to negotiate lower prices with hospitals that were located in more competitive markets. 14-16 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. More Empirical Results • Dranove and colleagues (2002) found that for the average market, the consolidation between 1981 and 1994 attributable to managed care represented the equivalent of a decrease to 6.5 equal-sized hospitals from 10.4 such hospitals. • A second study by Dranove and colleagues (2008) found that despite growing concentration, there has not been a “collapse in the price-concentration relationship.” MCOs continue to appear to be “playing collective hospitals off each other to secure discounts, though with possibly less effectiveness than in the peak year of 2001.” 14-17 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Figure 14-1 Payoff Matrix (millions of dollars) 14-18 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Hospital Cost Shifting • For various legal and ethical reasons, hospitals provide substantial amounts of uncompensated care. • Are the costs of uncompensated care and “discounts” to some third-party payers passed on by hospitals to other patients as is often claimed? 14-19 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. A Model For Considering Cost Shifting If the profit maximizing price is charged in the private sector, then it may not fall in response to lower Medicare reimbursement rates. 14-20 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Figure 14-2 Analysis of Changes in the Medicare Hospital Reimbursement Rate Empirical Evidence on Cost Shifting • A review of the evidence on cost shifting by Morrisey (1995) indicates that cost shifting through higher prices has taken place but that it is far from complete. One study included in his review shows that California hospitals reduced the amount of uncompensated care by 53 cents for every $1 decrease in their discounts to third parties. This would have been unnecessary if the hospitals could have shifted the costs to others. 14-21 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Empirical Evidence on Cost Shifting—Continued • Following reductions in Medicare payments to hospitals, Wu (2010) found relatively little cost shifting overall but large variations across hospitals. Those where Medicare reimbursement was small relative to private insurance were able to shift nearly 40 percent of the Medicare cuts. Hospitals that relied more heavily on Medicare patients were much more limited in shifting costs. 14-22 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. CLOSURES, MERGERS, AND RESTRUCTURING Empirical Evidence • Cleverly (1993) examined 160 community hospitals that closed between 1989 and 1991. The analysis shows that high prices and lack of investment in technology drive patients away. With lower utilization, costs per patient increase and cash flows become negative. The deteriorating liquidity ultimately leads to closure. 14-23 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Empirical Evidence • Succi and colleagues (1997) found that rural hospitals gain an advantage and reduce the threat of competition by differentiating their services. Those that offer more basic services and high-tech services compared to the market average are less likely to close. 14-24 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Empirical Evidence • Jantzen and Loubeau (2000) found that price and hospital participation in networks are very important to managed care organizations in awarding contracts. Second, hospitals and hospital systems, through their size and partnerships, seek to counter the pricing pressure and other demands that have been placed on them by managed care organizations. 14-25 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Has Restructuring Lowered or Raised Costs? • Harrison’s (2007) more recent examination of closures and mergers using comprehensive national data covering the period 1981–1998 found that increased market power, rather than improved efficiency, is the principal driving force for consolidations. • Melnick and Keeler (2007) found that hospitals that were members of multihospital systems increased their prices between 1999 and 2003 at much higher rates than nonmembers. 14-26 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Has Restructuring Lowered or Raised Costs? • Harrison’s (2007) examination of closures and mergers using comprehensive national data covering the period 1981–1998 found that increased market power, rather than improved efficiency, is the principal driving force for consolidations. • Melnick and Keeler (2007) showed that hospitals that were members of multihospital systems increased their prices between 1999 and 2003 at much higher rates than nonmembers. • There are cases where hospital closures on balance increase economic welfare (Capps et al., 2010). 14-27 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. QUALITY OF CARE What is Meant by Quality? • Hospital quality is often understood in two ways. - The availability of high tech units and services is one way to think about quality. - Quality can also be understood in terms of hospital mortality and error rates, readmission rates, and the rates at which a hospital meets established treatment processes and protocols. 14-28 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Empirical Evidence on Quality • Williams et al., 2005 analysis of quarterly data for heart attacks, congestive heart failure, and pneumonia indicated substantial gains in 15 of the 18 measures over the two-year study period. The gains were greatest for hospitals that had been the worst performers at the start of the evaluation period. • Jha et al., 2005 examined 10 quality indicators and found mean performance scores (representing proportions of patients who satisfied the criteria) were 89 percent for heart attacks, 81 percent for congestive heart failure, and 71 percent for pneumonia. 14-29 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. NURSING HOMES Background and Costs • The first “nursing homes” in the United States were the county poorhouses of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. • The burgeoning nursing home population and the growth of costs are connected closely to Medicare and Medicaid. 14-30 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Quality of Care • One would expect a positive association between size and quality as a result of economies of scale and scope. • Davis’s (1991) review of a large number of studies, including those that used process and structure measures of quality, suggests that no clear relationship exists. 14-31 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Relationship Between Type of Ownership and Quality • Because analysts have not been able to detect an unambiguous positive relationship between quality and costs, it follows that they would have great difficulty in detecting any relationship between type of ownership and process or outcome measures of quality. Davis’s review confirms this conclusion. 14-32 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Do Nursing Homes with Predominantly Medicaid Patients Provide Lower Quality Care? • Expenditures per resident are lower in homes with higher proportions of Medicaid patients so that structure measures unequivocally support a negative relationship between quality and the proportion of Medicaid residents in a nursing home. • Troyer (2004) found that Medicaid resident mortality rates were 4.2 percent and 7.8 percent higher than those for private-pay residents after one and two years, respectively. 14-33 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Figure 14-3 Analysis of Changes in the Medicaid Nursing Home Reimbursement Rate 14-34 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Excess Demand • Using national data for 1969 and 1973, Scanlon’s empirical tests indicate considerable excess demand for Medicaid patients. 14-35 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Financing Long-Term Care • The continuous growth of the population that will need longterm care (LTC); the requirement that patients must meet income, asset, and, since 2005, home equity tests to qualify for nursing home benefits under Medicaid; and the budgetary problems created by the growth of Medicaid spending have led to many proposals to reform Medicaid. • The need to deplete one’s assets is especially burdensome to the middle class. • Proposals range from allowing individuals to have higher incomes and retain a higher proportion of their wealth to qualify for public assistance, to those that would cover everyone who meets certain medical requirements. 14-36 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. HOSPICE, HOME HEALTH, AND INFORMAL CARE Overview • The budgetary pressure of caring for the growing elderly population in hospitals and nursing homes has promoted interest in other less costly arrangements. Hospice and home health programs are perceived to be cost effective and are heavily funded at the federal level. 14-37 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Hospice Care • Hospice care is intended for the terminally ill. • Most hospice patients receive care in their own homes, but the use of special facilities is becoming more prevalent. • In hospice, an interdisciplinary team of health professionals provides individualized care that emphasizes patients’ physical and emotional comfort (i.e., palliative as opposed to curative care), as well as support for family members. 14-38 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Home Health Care • Home health care, the larger and more important program, provides care to patients with acute and long-term needs, including those with disabilities, those recuperating from a hospital stay, and even the terminally ill. • The rationale for public funding for home health care rests on the premise that it is much less expensive than either hospital or nursing home care. 14-39 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. CONCLUSIONS Key Concepts • Common perceptions of a wasteful MAR and complete cost shifting do not accurately represent how hospital markets function. • There are significant deficiencies in the quality of hospital care, and improving quality is one of this nation’s most important goals. 14-40 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. Key Concepts • In the long-term care sector, we focused on nursing homes, emphasizing three issues: quality, especially for Medicaid patients; shortages; and financing nursing home care. • Home health care is a less costly alternative to nursing home care and represents one of the fastest-growing components of health care spending. 14-41 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

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