INCIDENTS FOR DISCUSSION • 179 DISCUSSION EXERCISE 1. The following activities were listed during a brain storming session on product development. Find the appropriate predecessor sccessor relationships and then construct an AON network to reflect the pro- ject using the activity duration times given in the information table. Assume a 5-day workweek. Find the critical path and time for the project. Find the slack for all activities. 1. Organize the sales office: Hire sales man- ager. (6 weeks) 2. Hire sales personnel: The sales manager will recruit and hire the salespeople needed. (4 weeks) 3. Train sales personnel: Train the salespeople hired to sell the product to the distributors (7 weeks) 4. Select advertising agency: The sales manager will select the agency best suited to promote the new product. (2 weeks) 5. Plan advertising campaign: The sales office and advertising agency will jointly plan the advertis- ing campaign to introduce the product to the public. (4 weeks) 6. Conduct advertising campaign: The advertising agency will conduct a "watch for" Campaign for potential customers. (10 weeks) 7. Design package: Have packaging engineer design the package most likely to "sell." (2 weeks) 8. Set up packaging facility: Prepare to package the products when they are received from the manu- facturer. (10 weeks) 9. Package initial stocks: Package stocks received from the manufacturer. (6 weeks) 10. Order and receive stock from the manufacturers Order the stock from the manufacturer. The time given includes the time for delivery (13 weeks) 11. Select distributors: The sales manager will select the distributors whom the salespeople will con tact to make sales. (9 weeks) 12. Sell to distributors: Take orders from the dis tributors for the new product, with delivery promised for the product-introduction date. If orders exceed stock, assign stock on a quota basis. (6 weeks) 13. Ship stock to distributorst Ship the packaged stock to distributors in accord with their orders or quota (6 weeks) Question: What managerial problems and opportunities do you see as a result of your work? INCIDENTS FOR DISCUSSION Springville Fire Department The city of Springville is building a new fire station in their city. The city is expanding and is in need of a sec ond fire station closer to the newer areas of the city to ensure shorter response times. The project manager and the project team have been selected for the project. The team is very interested in selecting the scheduling tech- nique that will be used to follow the project through to completion. The project manager, city manager, and chief of the fire department have set the following criteria for the process of selecting the scheduling technique: casy to use, shows durations of tasks, shows milestones, can see the flow of work, can see the sequence of events, can depict which tasks can be undertaken at the same time, and can tell how far tasks are from completion. The city manager favors the Gantt chart, the chief likes PERT, and the project man ager prefers CPM Question: If you were the project manager, which method would you use, and why! Attack of the Killer Worm Lee Antoinio was the CIO of a large publishing house. Her network administrator, Andy McPester, came to her one sunny September aftemoon and informed her that a worm had attacked their network. It had shut down two of their 45 servers and had potential to harm the other servers as well as the 323 personal workstations throughout the enterprise. Andy knew that he could not report this prob- lem to Lee without a recommended project plan for a solu- tion. Andy and Lee had a good, trusting relationship, but Lee insisted that Andy investigate all options and come to her with the most viable solution to any problem. Andy's project plan outlined that it would take 30 to 45 minutes to touch each PC to protect them from the worm, and longer if they were already infected. It would take almost an hour to check the other servers and repair them. Andy discussed the time estimates with his desktop staff. Andy proposed paying six staff members overtime to work 4 hours after their normal business day for the next week or two to check each personal workstation. He did not 176 CHAPTER 5 / SCHEDULING THE PROJECT 9. When using AON networks, how does one indicate an event such as a project milestone! 10. A probabilistic network has a critical path of 21 days and a 95 probability of completing this path in 24 days. Therefore, the project has a 95 chance of being finished by the end of the 24th day. True or False! Briefly explain your answer. 11. "Not uncommonly, the Gantt chart is deceptive in its apparent simplicity." Briefly explain. 12. When activity times are known with certainty, the critical path is defined as the set of activities on a path from the project's start event to its finish event that, if delayed, will delay the completion date of the project. Why must this definition be modified in situ ations where the activity times are not known with certainty? Are there any dangers associated with not modifying the definition! DISCUSSION QUESTIONS 1. Should a PM manage critical path tasks differently than noncritical path tasks? 2. How might you use the network approach to help prepare cost estimates! 3. When would it be accurate to determine the proba bility of project completion by multiplying the prob- abilities of all the paths through the network together! When would it not be accurate! 4. Reconsider Question 3. If this approxach is not accu rate, would the probability of completion considering the critical path alone be more accurate! How might you estimate the correct probability without resorting to simulation 5. Why do you think most PMs use MSP's Gantt chart format (see Figure 5-20) more commonly than the network format? 6. Which of the linkages in precedence diagramming do you think is most commonly used? Why! 7. In the calculation of variance for optimistic and pessimistic activity duration estimates made at the 95 or 90 percent level, the denominator of the frac tion that approximates the standard deviation of the time distribution changes from the traditional (b-a)/6 to (b-a)/3.3 for 95 percent and to (b- a)/2.6 for 90 percent. Where did the 3.3 and the 2.6 come from? 8. Given all the estimating done to determine the dura tion of project activities, what does it mean to say that "only after the fact do we know which path was actually the critical path?" 9. It was noted that "the PM must manage the project team as well as the project." Explain why. 10. Why do you think scheduling has been the major focus of effort throughout the history of project man agement rather than performance or budgeting? 4. Given the information in the following table: Activity Duration Predecessor None EXERCISES 1. Refer to the network in Figure 5-14. What is the prob. ability that path a-b-c-f will interfere with the prom ised project completion of 50 days? Recall that the critical path, a-b-dag-h, had a probability of 86 for a 50-day completion. What is the probability that both paths will be complete in 50 days? 2. Refer to Table 5-4 and Figure 5-14. Recalculate the variance for each activity on the assumption that the optimistic and pessimistic estimates were made with a 95 percent probability. Recalculate the prob ability that the critical path will be completed in 50 days. 3. Refer to Table 5-4 and Figure 5-14. Recalculate the variance for each activity on the assumption that the optimistic and pessimistic estimates were made with a 90 percent probability. Again, recalculate the likelihood that the critical path will be finished in 50 days. a ь c d e f a c b hid с h f i ch (a) Construct the network diagram. (b) Find cach activity's ES, EF, LS, and LF. (c) Identify all paths. Which path is the critical path? (d) Calculate the slack for each activity. (e) How long will it take to complete the project! EXERCISES 177 5. In the following table, task durations are given in weeks. The estimates were made at the 95 percent level (see Section 5.2. Calculating Probabilistic Activity Times subsection) 8. Referring to the previous two questions, modify your simulation model to develop distributions for the slack time of each path. What do these distributions tell you? 9. Given the following information regarding a project involving an initial public offering (IPO): a ь c d a a ce Activity Predec. Opt. Normal Pess. 2 4 6 3 5 9 4 5 7 a 4 6 10 e h.c 4 5 7 f 3 4 e 3 5 (a) Find the expected time and variance for each task. (b) Draw the network (either AOA or AON) and find the path with the longest expected time. What is the expected time to complete this path? (c) Find the probability using the analytical approach that the path with the longest expected time will be completed in 23 weeks. (d) Find the probability that the other paths will be completed in 23 weeks (e) Using simulation, what is the probability that the entire network will be completed in 23 weeks! 6. Given an auditing project with the following activities: Duration Activity Std. Dev. Critical (wks) a. Add 2 Yes 2 b. Balance 1 3 c. Count 0 Yes 4 d. Deduct 3 2 c. Edit 1 Yes 1 f. Finance 2 6 E. Group 2 Yes 4 h. Hold 0 Yes Using the analytical approach find: (a) The probability of completing this project in 12 weeks or less, as the client desires. (b) The probability of completing this project in 13 weeks or less. (c) The probability of completing this project in 16 weeks or less, the client's drop-dead date. (d) The number of weeks required to assure a 92.5 percent chance of completion, as guaranteed by the auditing firm. 7. Resolve the previous exercise using computer simula- tion and compare your answers. Explain any differ ences you observe. Which methodology do you have more confidence in and why? Duration Preceding Activity (weeks) Activities a. Check feasibility b. Determine funding c. Find possible banks 3 d. Select two possibles 4 e. Interview two banks 4 b f. Analyse funding costs 5 b . Determine chance of 2 success h. Sign contract 3 f (a) Draw the network. (b) What is the critical path! (c) When will the offering be available (end of the project)? (d) What is the effect on the project if activity e (approvals) takes an extra week? Two extra weeks? Three extra weeks! 10. Enter the following information into an Excel spread sheet. The time estimates were made at the 90 percent level (see Section 5.2. Calculating Probabilistic Activity Times subsection). All activity times are in days Activity Predec. Normal a b Opt. 5 4 7 C ܩ ܩ ܗ ||| e f Pess. 9 6 15 6 7 17 20 16 18 20 14 6 4 9 6 5 16 12 9 14 12 9 h i j k 12 8 7 10 6 7 с de f. h (a) Draw the network. (You may use MSP, or draw an AOA or AON network by hand.) (b) Using Excel", calculate the expected time (T.) and variance for each activity. (c) Using the expected times, find the path with the longest expected time. What is the expected time to complete this path! (Use the ana lytic method.) 180 want to affect productivity of the company's staff during the day. Andy proposed repairing the servers the same way with two additional staff members in the evenings. Lee felt that the time estimates and costs were too high. She did not think it would take that amount of time for each machine to get repaired. She was concerned that some of CHAPTER 5 / SCHEDULING THE PROJECT Andy's staff may have overestimated the time needed. She also was not sold on the notion that all the work would be done at night, paying staff overtime. Question: How would you recommend they reach a consensus on the project plan! C A S E 9 Friendly Assisted Living Facility together at determining the steps and the associated costs Program Plan–5 of the program. The CFO presented the program budget first, and then project team members presented their draft The steering team meeting held August 31 went quite project plans. well. Fred felt that his team members had worked well The COO presented the following project plan: ID Task Name Duration Predecessors Resource Names 1 Operational Implementation Plan 2 Management/Organization structure 87 days CFO, Legal, VP Mktg 3 Recruit & hire Executive Director 17.4 wks Splient 4 Interior design issues decided (furnishings, etc.) 20 days Coo 5 Determine what was provided with lease and what was 2 wks furnished in some units 6 Determine budget for interior 10 days 7 Carpet and wall finish determined 2 wks 59 8 Furniture and room layout 2 wks 59 Facility and equipment needs defined 4 wks 000 10 Staffing determined 2 wks Coo, Dr. Link 11 Office space for physicians 4 wks Dr. Link 12 Medical staffing needs determined & Director appointed 4 wks Dr. Link 13 Food service 45 days 14 Menus selected 15 Waiting and service staffing needs determined 4 wks 16 Additional equipment needs 4 wks 68F5—3wks 17 Telecommunications services 45 days 18 Investigate phone service options 45 days Chief Engineer 19 Certification Accreditation requirements 42 days 20 Investigate requirements & timing of applicants with Dept. O days Legal of Health to open facility 21 Develop clinical and operational quality monitoring systems O days 22 Develop financial systems (billing, etc.) 6 wks CFO 23 Human resources 79 days HR Director 24 Work force management recommendations 6 wks HR Director 25 Project plan for recruitment developed 2 wks 78 26 Policies and procedures developed 60 days 27 Obtain 'samples' of assisted living policies & procedures 4 wks Legal from other institutions 28 Investigate assisted living laws proposed in other states/ 12 wks Legal federal 29 Technology & information systems CIO 30 Develop plan for technology access for residents (TV, 3 wks Cable, PC's) 31 Investigate software/technology options for residents 12 wks CIO 8 wks 344 days CASE • 181 53 days The Chief Legal Counsel for the medical center pre- team when it became apparent that there were significant sented his project plan. Fred had asked him to join the compliance and legal issues associated with this project. ID Task Name Duration Predecessors Resource Names 1 Legal and Licensing Requirements 154 days 2 Research licensing requirements for residential care facility 38 days Legal 3 Uniform accessibility standard compliance (hndep 2 wks accessible beds) 4 Investigate law firm and outline services 4 wks 5 Prepare project plan for license 2 wks 39 6 File license-by opening date days 40 7 Curb-cut approval from county (access to County Rd.) Legal 8 Investigate corporate structure for assisted living 115 days Legal, CFO 9 Determine Board of Trustee membership 3 wks 10 Appoint Board of Trustees 4 wks 44 11 Prepare draft Code of Regulation 4 wks 45 12 Prepare document and filing of gewernance structure 12 wks 46 13 Draft service agreement with Friendly Medical Center for 4 wks 47 Legal services provided 14 Lease issues 110 days 48 Legal 15 Research Long Term Care insurance requirements 12 wks 16 Facility "rules" defined (i..., smoking, firearms, pets, 4 wks 50 financial planning) 17 Spell out changes for residents in moving from "light" to 6 wks "heavy" assisted 18 Lease template prepared 6 wks 52,50,51 19 Review all marketing materials for compliance 154 days Legal The Vice President of Marketing presented her project marketing plan implementation to be able to meet the plan and stated that she and her staff were responsible occupancy requirements at start-up. She restated that her for every step in the plan. She was still working with her team must have this lead time to the completion of the staff to determine who does what. The Marketing VP construction and furnishing phase of the Program. made it clear to the team that she needed 5 months for the Predecessors ID Task Name 1 Marketing 2 Community mailing about construction project 3 Initial informational meetings 4 Friendly Medical Center volunteers 5 Community groups 6 Friendly Medical Center staff (all shifts) 7 Presentation prepared for Speaker's Bureau 8 Provide updates to community 9 Inquiry log established 10 Groundbreaking ceremony-during National Hospital Week 11 Marketing plan developed and implemented 12 PR firm contracted 13 Marketing plan developed 14 Determine name and signage for facility 15 Hire Marketing Director 16 Marketing plan ready to implement 17 Implementation of marketing plan-5 months before facility ready, then ongoing Duration 270 days O days 16 days 1 day 4 days 3 days Odays days Odays Odays 180 days 4 wks 8 wks O days 4 wks O days 20 wks 88 92 88 97 98 98 98,100 101