Statistical investigation and everyday statistics

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Statistical investigation: Your Econ 3100 classmate Kim would like to buy a used Volkswagon Eurovan for an extended road trip this summer. Her neighbor Tim has offered to sell her his Eurovan. Tim’s Eurovan is has 75,000 miles on it. Kim and Tim agree that the van is in average condition. Tim has asked her to come up with a fair price. Your classmate has never heard of “blue book value” and sets out to estimate the value using her newly acquired knowledge of regression analysis. She checks the Seattle Times and finds a long list of Eurovans for sale. She selects a random sample of 10 vans, ranging in mileage from 59,000 to 129,000 miles. For each Eurovan, she enters the mileage (in 1000s) and the offered sales price (in $1000s) into JMP. She runs a regression predicting asking price in thousands based on mileage in thousands. She determines the relationship between mileage and asking price and also runs some estimates for the price of a Eurovan with 75,000 miles on it. 1. What is the estimated regression equation? 2. To what extent is variation in the prices of the vans explained by differences in their mileage? 3. Give a 95% confidence interval for the coefficient on mileage. 4. Interpret the confidence interval calculated in question 3. Exactly what does it tell you? 5. Sketch a graph illustrating the estimated relationship between mileage and a van’s price. 6. Give a point estimate of the predicted price for a Eurovan in average condition with 75,000 miles on it. 7. Give a 95% confidence interval for the average price of Eurovans with 75,000 miles on them. 8. Give a 95% confidence interval (prediction interval) for the price of an individual Eurovan with 75,000 miles on it. 9. Explain carefully why the confidence interval you gave for the individual van is wider that that you gave for the average van. 1 10. Assuming that your classmate and Tim agree that his van is in average condition, what price should she offer him? What is the price you would consider fair? Explain. 11. The sample contains a Eurovan with 81,718 thousand miles on it. Assuming that the price given accurately reflects the condition of the car, do you think this van is likely to be in belowaverage, average, or above average condition, given its mileage? Explain your answer. 12. Does the residual plot give any suggestion that one of the assumptions of the regression model may be violated? If not, why not? If so, which of the assumptions may be violated, and what in the residual plot indicates this. 13. Conduct a t-test at a 0.05 significance level as to whether mileage has a statistically significant relationship to the price of a van. Be sure to provide the hypotheses, test statistics, pvalue and conclusion. Summarize the test result in a non-technical sentence. 14. Now suppose a researcher wanted to provide evidence using a 0.05 significance level, that the price of a van declines by more than $250 for each additional 1,000 on the odometer. What would be the appropriate hypotheses? The test statistic? The p-value? The conclusion? 2 Everyday statistics Please read the article “Scientific Method: Statistical Errors.” You can find it online at: http://www.nature.com/news/scientific-method-statistical-errors-1.14700 1. What is the definition of “p-value” given in the article? 2. According to the article, how did the p-value come into widespread use in scientific research? 3. The article mentions a study of online dating. What were the statistically significant findings of that study? 4. Again, referring to the study of online dating mentioned in the article, to what extent were the findings reported substantially significant? That is, how large were the differences described between couples who met online and couples who did not? 5. The article describes a phenomenon called “p-hacking,” whereby researchers manipulate their studies in order to reduce the p-values and produce statistically significant findings. List some of the ways that researchers might manipulate their results in order to produce statistically significant findings (low p-values). 6. What are some ways that researchers might go about improving their research, that is, what might they do beyond just using p-values to establish the validity of their findings? 3 File Edit Tables Rows Cols Analyze Graph Tools View Window Help eurovan D Year Age Mileage (1000s) 64 Price Type (f: (1000s) camper/T 30 FC 1 2000 9 2 2000 82.345 28 MV 3 1997 12 59 27 FC 4 2001 76.767 5 2001 24.9 MV 21.992 MV 8 6 2002 7 69.218 88.275 108.077 19.988 MV 7 1995 14 15 FC 8 2000 9 110.608 2001 13.995 MV 10.999 MV 81.718 0 00 10 2000 129.591 8.888 MV Columns (570) Year Age Mileage (1000s) Price (1000s) Type (full camper/MV) 10 Rows All rows Selected Excluded Hidden Labelled оооо Start х MIT W
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Running head: STATISTICS

Student’s Name
Professor’s Name
Course Title
Date

STATISTICS

2
Statistical investigation:

Your Econ 3100 classmate Kim would like to buy a used Volkswagon Eurovan for an extended
road trip this summer. Her neighbor Tim has offered to sell her his Eurovan. Tim’s Eurovan is
has 75,000 miles on it. Kim and Tim agree that the van is in average condition. Tim has asked
her to come up with a fair price. Your classmate has never heard of “blue book value” and sets
out to estimate the value using her newly acquired knowledge of regression analysis. She checks
the Seattle Times and finds a long list of Eurovans for sale. She selects a random sample of 10
vans, ranging in mileage from 59,000 to 129,000 miles. For each Eurovan, she enters the
mileage (in 1000s) and the offered sales price (in $1000s) into JMP. She runs a regression
predicting asking price in thousands based on mileage in thousands. She determines the
relat...


Anonymous
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