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Discuss how economic situations impact threat. You can look at this from any aspect, or multiple aspects, of threat that we have discussed to this point.

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Introduction Topics to be covered include: • • Terrorism Transnational crime Have you ever considered the non-traditional threats that increase the vulnerability of our national security? Terrorism is an obvious threat but it is considered a non-traditional threat since it has not been as widely used as traditional threats in the past. Historically terrorism has existed for centuries but it was not until the 1960s that it began to evolve into a security threat. Terrorists began hijacking airplanes for a number of reasons and one of the most significant events to result from terrorism and hijacking was 9/11. This specific event has shaped the direction the intelligence community has taken in order to secure our nation. Another non-traditional threat to our nation’s security is trafficking in its various forms. Drug trafficking became a national issue in the 1980s following the influx of cocaine to keep up with the demand from users. This threat creates problem for security because our borders and economy, not to mention lives of citizens and foreigners, remain vulnerable. It is nearly impossible to police the expanse of our nation and traffickers take full advantage of this weakness. Humans are regularly trafficked and this also poses a threat to our national security. There are considerable labor violations and crimes related to prostitution so that the group may financially benefit from this exploitation of others. Some victims are kidnapped, others traded, and some are even taken in lieu of payment of a family debt. This type of threat causes a burden on many different agencies in the United States. Terrorism Terrorism has existed in different forms for centuries. There is documented use during the First Century when the Zealots of Judea were employed as assassins of the Romans occupation forces. During these earlier times, assassinations were carried out by using simple daggers against those who collaborated with the Romans, including the Jewish people, because they could not remain devoted to the decrees of Judaism. The relevancy of the Zealots and Assassins today demonstrates their motivation, organization, and targeting of those who did not comply with their demands. Furthermore, they also show how psychology was used to gain compliance as well as the deep impact they had on history. In order to distinguish terrorism from other types of threats, it is important to note that it is a political concept; it is about the pursuit, acquisition, and use of power to achieve political change. The threat or use of violence in order to achieve political gain is the goal of terrorists’ coercive intimidation of others. The acts that are carried out are planned, calculated, and systematic against the intended targets. Modern international terrorism first occurred on July 22, 1968, when three Palestinian terrorists hijacked an Israeli El Al flight on its way from Rome to Tel Aviv (Hoffman 2006). While hijackings were not uncommon at that time, this was the first time one involved a political statement. The purpose of El Al hijacking was to exchange hostages for imprisoned Palestinian terrorists in Israel. Additionally, this particular airline, El Al, was symbolic because it represented Israel as part of the political statement. The Israeli government, having denounced the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), was forced to communicate with the terrorists against their previous policy pronouncements. It was this event that drew mass media attention and worldwide recognition, giving way to the power that terrorists could hold when innocent civilian lives were at stake. Following the El Al hijacking, terrorism continued to be shaped and terrorists were now moving across borders for the first time to carry out their attacks. More and more innocent civilian lives were threatened in order to attract attention by demonstrating their power against their avowed enemies (Hoffman 2006). They succeeded with their attempts to shock and create fear and panic. Advances in technology were used to their advantage since international commercial air travel was easily accessible as well as the ability for news stations to broadcast footage faster than ever before. They used the media to also recruit new members for their cause. The PLO was also one of the first terrorist groups to accrue capital and wealth as their top priority within the organization. Through the promotion of their extensive and successful training camp, the PLO was able to finance their operations by offering training to other terrorist organizations (Hoffman 2006). This strengthened their cause and they gained relationships that could be relied on later when joint efforts were necessary. With Yassar Arafat at the helm (until his death in November of 2004), the PLO remained the ruling party in the West Bank and Gaza until the elections in January 2006. Today’s terrorists have the advantage of technology and advanced weaponry to further their political, ideological, or religious agendas. One of the greatest problems the intelligence community faces today is determining when and where terrorists will strike next. Conflicting theories argue that the United States will be the next likely target while others assert that other allies of the United States will continue to be targets. Some propose that rural America rather than a large metropolitan city will be the next target to prove that no one is safe. We have witnessed a number of attacks in various cities globally in the past two decades that have resulted in the loss of thousands of lives, furthering the need to stay one step ahead of terrorists before they can strike again. The History of al Qaeda The world first heard of al Qaeda in 1992 when they attacked the Gold Mohur hotel in Yemen where United States military troops were staying en route to Somalia. Following the terrorist attacks on 9/11, they had gained international notoriety as the terrorists who attacked America on their own soil. The history of al Qaeda dates backs to the conflict from 1979-1989 between Afghanistan and the Soviet Union, with young Muslims supporting the holy war against the invading Soviets. Osama bin Laden was in his early 20s when he joined this jihad and was well known for his ability to provide funding given his wealth. Bin Laden developed a prosperous network recruiting more young Muslins for the jihad. This successful organization of rebels received financial support from Saudi Arabia as well as the United States to fight against the Soviets. Once the Soviets left Afghanistan in 1989, bin Laden and his associated decided to continue building the organization they built for future jihad (Hoffman 2006). Abdullah Azzam, a Palestinian, was not in agreement with bin Laden on the organization’s objectives: Azzam wanted to continue fighting for a true Islamic government in Afghanistan while bin Laden wanted to prepare the “army” to fight worldwide. Bin Laden assumed leadership over al Qaeda when Azzam was killed in 1989. Following his exile from Saudia Arabia, the new headquarters for al Qaeda was based in Sudan where bin Laden began networking with other groups throughout the Middle East and Africa to begin his holy war against the West The early to mid-1990s were the beginning of their fatwa against the United States following the military deployment to Somalia. The 1992 hotel bombing, the alleged downing of two Black Hawk helicopters in Somalia and failed World Trade Center bombing attempt in 1993 were claimed by al Qaeda. Sudan was pressured by international governments to exile bin Laden to his native Afghanistan and he faced trouble rebuilding his network (Hoffman 2006). It was not until 1998 when the merger with the Egyptian Islamist Jihad, led by Ayman al-Zawahri, that al Qaeda re-built its strength in international terrorism. With continued training, funding, and organization, bin Laden and al-Zawahri were able to fortify their troops, bombing the U.S. embassies in Tanzania and Kenya in 1998, and the USS Cole in Yemen during 2000. Less than one year later, the mastermind terrorist attacks on the World Trade Centers in New York, the Pentagon in Washington D.C., and the failed hijacking attempt of Flight 93 occurred, changing international intelligence and security from that point forward. The United States invaded Afghanistan less than one month later with the intent of destroying al Qaeda and eradicating the Taliban since this group was sheltering bin Laden. For ten years bin Laden was able to evade capture and once his death was confirmed on May 2, 2011, this accomplishment and victory was purported to be the downfall of al Qaeda (Hoffman 2006). Without having a centralized command, al Qaeda was fractured and spread to various parts of the Middle East. It was then that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was able to lead the war between the Sunnis and Shi’ites, as well as be the leader that young men and women wanted to emulate; membership was no longer limited to Muslim-born individuals as we saw Americans also joining the cause. No longer did al Qaeda have control over the population through threats and coercion but rather had their support which is far harder to counter. Timeline of Terrorist Attacks The following is a list of terrorist attacks that have occurred from 1995 to 1998. This provides a better overview of the different types of threats that we can be exposed to by terrorists. This list contains foreign and domestic terrorist attacks. March 1995 The Tokyo sarin nerve gas attack on the subway system, killing 12 and injuring over 3,700 others. It was purported that the same attempt would be used in the United States. April 1995 The act of domestic terrorism when the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building was bombed in Oklahoma City where 168 people died. November 1995 The assassination of the Israeli premier Yitzhak Rabin was to be the first step in a mass murder campaign to disturb the peace process. February – March 1996 Hamas suicide bombers killed over 60 people during the national elections in Israel. April 1996 In Cairo, Egypt, 18 American tourists were killed outside their hotel by an Egyptian Islamic militant group using machine guns and grenades. June 1996 The bombing of the U.S. Air Force barracks in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, resulted in 19 deaths. November 1997 The Islamic group Gamat al-Islamiya massacred 62 people at the Temple of Queen Hatshepsut in Egypt. August 1998 Synchronized suicide attacks by al Qaeda on U.S. Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania killed more than 300 people and wounded over 5,000. These two attacks used suicide car and truck bombs as their weapons. December 1998 The Muslim extremist group Abu Sayyaf Group bombed a shopping mall in the Philippines, wounding 60 Christians. As you can clearly see illustrated in these examples, there are different methods used in the attacks as well as different locations. People on vacation, shopping, at work, voting, or commuting have been killed or injured in terrorist attacks worldwide. The majority of these examples were based on religious extremism and as this list suggests, acts of violence are not limited to specific times or places. Characteristics of Terrorist Groups Characteristics of terrorist groups depend on their purpose and motivations. Let’s take a closer look at the characteristics of religious terrorist groups. Religious Terrorist Group Characteristics • • • • • • • • Radically different value systems Modes of legitimizing and justifying cause Concepts of morality Worldwide secular views Violence is a sacramental duty in response to the theological demand Disregard for political, moral, or practical constraints Do not participate in indiscriminate killing on a massive scale because it is not aligned with their political goals Terrorist operations are “blessed” prior to execution With globalization, erosion of traditional values, economic and political inequality, many nationstates have realized a future with different levels of uncertainty. Muslims, for example, seek to preserve their religious identity based on perceived threats from Western political, economic, and cultural influences. Along with these changes, Islamic terrorist groups often do not work together and in most cases, have fought against one another, with the exception of those groups who have forged relationships based on jihad against the Western infidels. As discussed previously, terrorist groups have different motivations and targets but they all inflict fear through their threats. There are challenges in countering any type of terrorist group and studying their attacks can help us gain further insight into their inner workings. The intelligence community continues to monitor for threats and work towards protecting our safety and security. As you progress through these lessons, you will learn more how this all works together. Transnational Crime Terrorism is not the only concern for national security as you will learn in this section. Transnational crime is a global problem and at times can destabilize certain countries as in Latin America, Africa, and the Caribbean. Legitimate trade has been affected and damaged by trafficking. There is an extensive amount of transnational crime within the United States ranging from contraband sales of tobacco, drugs, weapons, and other items on the black market. We can add telemarketing scams (e.g., imposter IRS agents, etc.), securities fraud, and migrant smuggling to list of offenses that pose serious threats to national security. Many foreign crime groups operate within the United States borders (Eskridge 1998). Easy access to international markets and technological advances has opened the doors for criminals to reap the rewards of the globalization of transnational crimes. Organized crime, drug and human trafficking pose critical threats to nation state and international security because of the methods used to generate revenue. The trafficking of human body parts, for example, threatens the lives of those who are identified as profitable organ donors. People have been killed simply because a major organ transplant was needed for a kingpin or leader in order to save his or her life. Trafficking is an extremely serious security concern for the United States. One would not normally consider drug and human trafficking as a threat to national security but they are and we must continue to combat them. The increase in drug smuggling and human trafficking has been criminalized for decades and law enforcement continues to investigate those suspected of either. The intelligence community continues to monitor threats related to trafficking and responding accordingly. Drug Trafficking Drug trafficking was identified in 1986 by President Ronald Reagan as a security threat to the United States when National Security Decision Directive (NSDD) Number 21 was enacted. There was a significant increase in the amount of cocaine smuggled into the United States during the 1980s necessitating to increase security efforts against traffickers (Krahmann 2005). Advancements in Transportation and Technology Several decades ago traffickers faced limitations of transportation and technology in expanding their “businesses” but the advances in technology greatly improved communications and methods of travel. Now traffickers are able to reduce the time it takes to cross the borders and distribute their goods, benefitting the sellers, distributors, and customers. This type of security threat is not limited to drugs as we see other goods such as small computer parts and explosive components as well as humans being trafficked internationally. Increased Threat Transnational trafficking has led to the increase in the need for additional federal employees to combat this threat. Illicit drug crops, processing labs, and drug chains have been the targets of investigations and a top priority for policy efforts, resulting in the arrests of drug manufacturers and smugglers as well as shutting down labs and chains. While the number of manufacturers, smugglers, and mules has increased over the past two decades, they are easily replaced so it is critical to raid cartels in other nation states in order to shut down a cartel. Without the kingpin or head of a cartel, their hierarchy and organization suffers (Zabludoff 1998). Relationship with Cartels Drug trafficking groups begin a relationship with cartels for a number of reasons. Smaller groups take advantage of the existing networks that cartels have established because of the ability to increase revenue. Groups that have weaknesses are able to take advantage of the strengths that cartels offer with their better organization and hierarchy. Cartels are typically very skilled in smuggling and smaller groups will benefit from this experience. One final important reason that smaller groups join a cartel network is to benefit from established relationships and references for future sales (Krahmann 2005). Colombian Cartel Networks In the early 1970s drug use was gaining popularity and frequency within the United States. Colombian drug cartels noticed this increase and they began to create the distribution networks necessary to meet the demands of Americans. At first, the amounts smuggled were smaller because of the expense and cocaine was a “rich” person’s choice of drug. Makeshift laboratories were constructed in Colombia where the raw materials purchased from Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia were refined into the final product. As time passed, the international need for more cocaine and other illicit drugs grew, trafficking expanded, and more cartels were formed (Krahmann 2005). Let’s explore how cartels expanded their network, and the efforts made by the government to combat cartels. The cartels began to expand their networks and established locations in Mexico, Guatemala, the Dominican Republic, Spain, the Netherlands, and the United States. These networks that were located away from the core group had several people working in small cells and they kept to themselves to avoid detection by law enforcement officials. Once the smaller location received a shipment it was then distributed to independent wholesalers for sale to the users. Employing small cells of individuals made it easy to shut down and relocate when necessary. They had limited communication with the cartel so if they were to be arrested they could provide basic information. The cartel did not come to their rescue. Kingpins Kingpins lead the cartels and employed trusted associated to oversee daily activities. Having hundreds or thousands of workers insulated the cartel kingpin from law enforcement since the lower level workers were the ones committing crimes regularly. Even though kingpins are regular targets of investigations it is challenging to capture them because of their personal security and skilled corruption of local law enforcement officials (Krahmann 2005). • Kingpin Strategy Known as the kingpin strategy, the United States Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) created a counter-narcotics program to combat drug trafficking efforts since they continued to pose serious threats against the United States. This strategy focused on the dismantling of drug cartels by using investigative and intelligence technology such as wiretapping and trapping and tracing devices. Since the purpose of the kingpin strategy was to neutralize the kingpins it would result in dismantling their financial and illegal operations in order to reduce the production and distribution of drugs (Albanese 2004). Successful Efforts The initial list of kingpins that were the targets of this strategy were the most notorious ones within the drug trafficking ring: Pablo Escobar, Helmer Buitrago Herrera, and Jose Santacruz Londono. The DEA worked in tandem with the Colombian National Police (CNP) by attacking the various cartel’s communications, transportation, and financial systems. Within the first two years of implementing this strategy, more than $210 million, aircraft, boats, cars, and trucks were seized along with the arrest of over 700 individuals in different nation states (Kenney 2005). Additionally, in Colombia alone, hundreds of cocaine manufacturing labs and illegal crops were destroyed as well as hundreds of traffickers being arrested. Following the deaths of incarcerated kingpins several years after implementing this strategy, the major drug trafficking networks were disrupted and the threats to the United States reduced (Krahmann 2005). • New Threats Emerge As a result of the demise of major drug cartels, smaller enterprises began appearing and resuming the drug smuggling into the United States. The majority of these specialized in one or two specific types of drugs. These new enterprises did not have the multi-level management as did the cartels so control was much tighter with lower numbers of participants. A new threat emerged when left wing guerrilla organizations and right wing paramilitary forces joined the world of drug trafficking. Human Trafficking You might be wondering just how human trafficking is a threat to national security. Most people consider human trafficking to be a form of prostitution but that assumption is flawed; it is so much more than sex crimes. Forced labor is another form of human trafficking that is detrimental to our nation state’s security. Forced laborers are relegated to work in restaurants, nail salons, factories, farms, peddling wares on the street, and working for drug traffickers. The media portrays human trafficking as mainly related to prostitution and the American public’s opinion have been shaped by this, however, the media does not share how human trafficking is a threat to our security. Victims of Human Trafficking International trafficking of humans is on the rise and remains a violation of human rights. People become victims of trafficking for a number of reasons – kidnapping, deceptive recruiting practices, promises of gainful and legitimate employment, and being sold or traded. For some, the risk of relocating without any knowledge about future conditions is greater than where they currently live. The victims of human trafficking find themselves as part of this modern-day slavery or white-slave trade concept but keep in mind that trafficking is greatly different from human smuggling. Human smuggling relates to assisting individuals with illegal border crossing and the relationship ends once they have arrived in the destination country. Here are different examples of what happens once a person, regardless of age or gender, is trafficked: • • • • • • • Forced marriage Sexual exploitation Forced labor (agriculture or sweatshops) Organ harvesting Domestic servitude Military service Pornography Roles in Human Trafficking You may be wondering how human trafficking is a non-traditional threat to our nation’s security at this point. It has become a threat because some individuals develop a close relationship with their group leader and the duties that must be carried out can bring injury or harm to others. They affect the United States economy with their illegal activities and exploitation of labor. People who are victims of trafficking may escape captivity and enter the criminal world in order to survive. Let’s take a closer look at the various roles in a human trafficking ring. The leader – The majority of groups have an established leader. Those which do not have a leader associate and cooperate with groups when there is a need to make quick cash. The recruiter – Recruiters are the individuals who find cheap labor and supply men, women, and children for prostitution. The transporter– This individual is tasked with the transfer of victims to their destination country. The scouter– There are people within communities who relay information pertaining to investigations to the leader or his/her associates. The enforcer– Enforcers are the individuals who safeguard the best interest of the group. The document vendor – This person is tasked with creating false documents for the journey to the new country. The corrupt public officials – These individuals have been bought by the group for their services to reduce complications with the transportation of trafficked individuals. These people commonly work for embassies, police forces, or consulates. They are paid to ignore the gross abuse and exploitation of others. Combating Trafficking The trafficking in persons and human organs is an extremely serious issue and highlights the fact that the human body has become another commodity exploited by individuals or organized crime groups. The introduction of a strong legal framework of trafficking in persons and human organs throughout the world and the upholding of this framework by a sensitized and determined law enforcement apparatus and the relevant governmental and nongovernmental organizations are needed. Very importantly, however, there is a huge need to reduce the economic differences between the poor and rich countries, which makes people either fall prey to individuals and groups who introduce them into exploitative working conditions, slavery, and prostitution or make them resort to desperate measures such as selling themselves or their body parts. Conclusion This lesson is rich with information about two major types of non-traditional threats to our nation: terrorism and transnational crime. Terrorists have succeeded in planning and executing attacks against the United States on domestic soil and foreign interests. There have been more attempted and successful attacks on foreign soil than on domestic, with the events of 9/11 being the most significant terrorist attack in history. The intelligence community continues to monitor and assess threats as they are identified in order to protect Americans. Transnational crime is the other major non-traditional threat that affects the United States. With an assortment of crimes under this umbrella, drug and human trafficking create the largest number of issues for national security. People from many different countries are the victims of trafficking whether they are forced to work in the drug industry or are exploited humans. Introduction Topics to be covered include: • • Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Chemical, Biological, Radiological andNuclear (CBRN )threats Many Americans are unfamiliar with the types of threats they are vulnerable to should another terrorist attack occur. The events of 9/11 are the most horrific our nation has experienced and the long-lasting effects of a foreign terrorist attack still linger today. Some are not familiar with the other types of weapons used to threaten or instill fear in others. With the advances in modern technology many different types of biological weapons can be created in a lab setting. Terrorism has presented a threat to the United States intelligence community as well as other nation states. While we would never consider the possibility of a plane, let alone three in one day, flying into a building on purpose as an act of terrorism this demonstrates the lengths terrorists will go to in order to fight their “holy war” against the West. Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) are also used by terrorists in a number of ways and these threats should be taken seriously. In this lesson, we will discuss WMD as well as the individual weapons that are used at length. Weapons of Mass Destruction The uncertainty of facing an attack using weapons of mass destruction (WMD) against the United States remains high on public policy efforts. We must plan our homeland defense strategies, policies, and programs based on the low probability of a future attack as there is no definitive way to determine what type of weapon would be used or the method in which the given weapon would be delivered. Delivery of a weapon of mass destruction could be on a small scale such as through the use of a backpack bomb covertly or overtly or it could be a suicide bombing attempt by a foreign nation state or non-state actor. The intelligence community continues to stress that terrorists are more likely to use conventional weapons rather than a chemical or biological one. The reason for this is because chemical and biological weapons (CBW) are more difficult to weaponize and the results from use are unpredictable. While there has been documented increases in the use of CBWs by nation state actors and non-state actors, they are mainly used on foreign soil. We have traditionally noted that CBWs have been used throughout history by politically motivated groups and non-state actors. With the introduction of nuclear weaponry in 1945, the United States experienced three different periods of vulnerability: the atomic bomb (A bomb), nuclear arms race, and nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) terrorism (Gurr and Cole 2002). The United States has remained the reigning global superpower and renowned conventional military power, allowing a brief sense of security, but with the re-emergence of the use of NBC weaponry in the 1990s, it was short-lived. The threats were not only foreign but we saw them become domestic also. Americans are more fearful of NBC threats from foreign groups rather than “the enemy within,” introducing a new vulnerability when domestic terrorist attacks were on the rise. Weapons of Mass Destruction The uncertainty of facing an attack using weapons of mass destruction (WMD) against the United States remains high on public policy efforts. We must plan our homeland defense strategies, policies, and programs based on the low probability of a future attack as there is no definitive way to determine what type of weapon would be used or the method in which the given weapon would be delivered. Delivery of a weapon of mass destruction could be on a small scale such as through the use of a backpack bomb covertly or overtly or it could be a suicide bombing attempt by a foreign nation state or non-state actor. The intelligence community continues to stress that terrorists are more likely to use conventional weapons rather than a chemical or biological one. The reason for this is because chemical and biological weapons (CBW) are more difficult to weaponize and the results from use are unpredictable. While there has been documented increases in the use of CBWs by nation state actors and non-state actors, they are mainly used on foreign soil. We have traditionally noted that CBWs have been used throughout history by politically motivated groups and non-state actors. With the introduction of nuclear weaponry in 1945, the United States experienced three different periods of vulnerability: the atomic bomb (A bomb), nuclear arms race, and nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) terrorism (Gurr and Cole 2002). The United States has remained the reigning global superpower and renowned conventional military power, allowing a brief sense of security, but with the re-emergence of the use of NBC weaponry in the 1990s, it was short-lived. The threats were not only foreign but we saw them become domestic also. Americans are more fearful of NBC threats from foreign groups rather than “the enemy within,” introducing a new vulnerability when domestic terrorist attacks were on the rise. • Salmonella Bacteria In 1984, the Rajneesh religious sect wanted to influence a local election in Oregon through the incapacitation of opposing voters. Two members of the sect produced and distributed salmonella bacteria in salad bars in eight different area restaurants (CIA 2002). • Cyanide Champagne Tajik opposition members spiked champagne with cyanide on New Year’s Eve in 1995, killing seven and making countless other party-goers ill. • Botulinum Botulinum toxin was found in three suitcases near a train station in Tokyo in 1995, a failed biological attack by Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo. Five days later, the same cult successfully used improvised chemical devices (ICD) in a subway station to deploy sarin gas, killing 12 and injuring thousands. • Weapons of Mass Destruction Plotting to kill select government officials in 1998, two members of the Republic of Texas were apprehended and convicted for threatening to use a weapon of mass destruction. • Poisoned Wine and Fruit In 2000, Chechen rebels were accused of poisoning wine and canned fruit that were to be delivered to Russian soldiers in Chechnya. • Water System Poisoning The Roman water system was the target of poisoning in 2002 when Italian authorities arrested Moroccan nationals who had possession of a detailed map of the underground water system and potassium ferrocyanide. • Water System Poisoning The Roman water system was the target of poisoning in 2002 when Italian authorities arrested Moroccan nationals who had possession of a detailed map of the underground water system and potassium ferrocyanide. Conventional Explosives and Secondary Devices Conventional explosives have been used by terrorists for centuries. Traditional, or those which are manufactured, and IEDs are typically the most easily accessible weapons for terrorists to acquire and use. These types of weapons are easily accessible and when expertly used, can impose significant amounts of devastation to property and may be the cause of multiple injuries and fatalities. Conventional explosives are the greatest of worry regarding weapons because of their ability to effectively spread chemical, biological, or radiological agents. Conventional explosives and IEDs can be explosive or combustible in nature. Explosives employ the use of physical devastation which causes the expansion of gases that result from the ignition of different explosive materials (e.g., simple pipe bombs, backpack bombs, letter or package bombs, or a car bomb). Incendiary devices such as firebombs rely on the ignition of fires to cause damage or harm (e.g., Molotov cocktails or napalm bombs). Explosions and conflagrations can be dispensed using missiles or projectile devices such as a rocket, rocket-propelled grenade (RPG), mortar, or an air-dropped bomb. Since these types of weapons rely on low technology and are comparatively easy to move and deliver, they are the most common choice of terrorists. Although suicide bombings are becoming more common, the majority of devices are detonated by a radio or cell phone with timed remotes. Let’s take a look at different attack scenarios that might occur. Scenario A In a large metropolitan area, radiological powder is injected into the HVAC system of several highly populated buildings and hotels over the course of a few weeks. It takes a few days for symptoms to manifest and it can be days or even weeks following the introduction of the powder before a public warning is announced. Once the powder has been discovered following the rise in symptoms long term efficacy and damage may not be easily predicted. If the area is one that is a tourist destination then the economy may suffer because no one will travel to the location for an extended period of time following contamination. There is a distinct possibility that the buildings may have to be rebuilt in order to rid them from the contamination. Scenario B Terrorists may become employed as cleaners for a large shopping mall, airport, or office building as their cover. Over the course of a few days or weeks cleaning products containing a chemical agent are delivered and ready for use on a specified date. These “cleaners” may introduce the chemical agent to air filters and replace existing ones so that it is spread through the HVAC system or they may use the contaminated cleaning products in bathrooms and food service areas. They would most likely begin the attack during peak hours with high traffic so that the highest number of people possible are affected by the agent. Scenario C Terrorists who have been immunized against a chemical agent use typically seen containers such as purses, briefcases, or suitcases to transport the agent. They may breech government offices and detection is less likely in the innocuous containers. They will easily pass through x-ray machines and security since no official weapon would be identified. A powder such as anthrax could be stored in a sealed plastic bag to avoid detection. Once they are inside the desired target the chemical agent can then be released or abandoned. Once again it may take days or weeks for symptoms to show, delaying the identification of an agent within the confines. Scenario D A terrorist group may acquire a remote controlled helicopter used to spray crops as their method of release of an agent such as Ebola. No one would suspect a crop spraying helicopter when it is used for agricultural purposes. The agent is then released on crops and workers who help spread the contamination to neighboring counties. The remote controlled helicopter may then be crashed into a body of water to destroy it, making it look like an accident. Scenario E A truck filled with what appears to be light gravel is driven through the streets of a city during rush hour or another heavy traffic period. A visible powder does come out through the tarpaulin covering the truck, but the spread of the powder is so light that no attention is paid to it. The driver and his assistant are immunized against the modified form of anthrax carried in the truck, which is being released from behind the gravel or sand in the truck. The truck slowly quarters key areas of the city. Not only are commuters and those in the area infected but they are now transporting the spores to their work or home to infect more people. Once the symptoms are noticed the attack has now become an epidemic. As many as 40 to 60 percent of the population exposed to the spores die, and area medical facilities have been overwhelmed with the number of patients that require medical assistance. Scenario F Simultaneous release takes place of anthrax spores at ten to twenty scattered subway platforms during rush hour and at commuter rail stations as well. No notice is given of the attack. Incubation takes one to seven days and the attack is only detected when symptoms appear. A large number of people are now exhibiting flu-like symptoms, showing difficulty with breathing. At this point, several million people using the mode of transportation targeted are exposed. Prompt treatment is no longer an option because the attack went undetected for too long, making decontamination efforts useless. Medical facilities are overburdened with the influx of patients. Scenario G An explosive device is detonated on a military base in an area that is densely populated with personnel, spreading mustard or nerve gas. While emergency teams respond quickly and assess the damage, other responders are evacuating the affected area as fast as possible in order to reduce the number of affected individuals. A few hours later it is noted that the device not only contained mustard or nerve gas but also a biological agent which is the cause of death for the majority of emergency responders. The evacuation area must now be expanded to account for this discovery. These scenarios illustrate the different types of attacks that could potentially occur on domestic soil, injuring or killing thousands or millions of people. Terrorists have infiltrated businesses as employees or contractors in order to coordinate attacks. It is also easy to see how dangerous it is to assume that terrorists act in predictable ways. They are also able to attack emergency responders, lessening the chances of containing the agents. We would be remiss to think that terrorists would only use large scale weapons for attacks when they can easily use much smaller and common ones. Chemical Weapons Chemical Weapons on U.S. Soil Historically, chemical weapons have not been effectively used in attacks on domestic soil. In the 1990s, a chemical weapon attack was planned by the Ku Klux Klan in Dallas, Texas. They attempted to use an improvised explosive device to release hydrogen sulfide from a refinery tank. The United States lacks the ability to characterize the effects that a chemical attack would have on domestic soil. While terrorists traditionally use explosive devices for their lethal effects, a chemical attack would result in larger scale damage long term. These are the types of weapons of choice to intimate others and create fear and panic. Types of Chemical Weapons As with explosives, chemical weapons have been around and used for centuries and throughout history. Chemical weapons were, and still are, designed for the primary purpose of killing, injuring, or incapacitating people. People may inhale or digest the toxin or it may penetrate the skin or eyes. There are six general categories of chemical weapons that have been developed and are categorized based on their physiological effects each have on their victims: • • • • • • Nerve Agents– Sarin gas or VX (Most potent of all nerve agents) Blister Agents– Mustard gas Blood Agents– Cyanide Choking or Pulmonary Agents– Phosgene Irritants – Tear gas or pepper spray Incapacitating Agents– BZ (central nervous system depressant) or Agent 15 (Hallucinogen) Execution of Chemical Weapons Chemical weapons can be delivered by terrorists through several different methods. Aerosol devices can distribute chemicals in liquid, solid (powder) or gas states by causing tiny particulates of the chemical to be suspended into the air. Explosives may also be used to distribute chemicals through the air in the same approach. A tanker truck or train carrying chemicals may also be penetrated, exposing the chemical to the air or water. Chemicals that may be easily absorbed through the skin may be placed directly on the potential victim’s skin, causing harm or death. Characteristics of Chemical Weapons Chemical attacks are typically identified immediately, while it may be not clear to victims and responders until further testing has taken place that an attack has occurred based on the method of deployment. The testing will determine whether the attack was chemical or biological so that the proper response can be given. Chemical weapons may linger in the affected area following the attack for an extended period of time or evaporate quickly because of their lighter-than-air qualities, stemming from the loss of ability to harm or kill after approximately 10 or 15 minutes in open areas. In unventilated rooms, chemicals linger for a substantial longer period of time. Biological Weapons Biological weapons are live organisms, either a bacteria or virus, or the toxic byproducts generated by living organisms that are manipulated in order to cause illness, injury, or death in humans, livestock, or plants. Advances in weapons technology have allowed this type of weapon a more effective reach and application on intended victims. Bioweapons may be dispersed overtly or covertly by terrorists. When covertly dispersed, bioweapons are extremely difficult to recognize because their negative effects can take hours, days, or even weeks, to emerge. This is especially true with bacteria and viruses, although toxins generally prompt an immediate reaction (Bullock, Haddow, and Coppola 2013). Recognition of a biological attack is made through a range of methods, including the identification of a credible threat, the discovery of weapons, and the correct diagnosis of affected humans, animals, or plants. Detection depends on a concerted public health monitoring system, trained, patients who seek medical care after exposure, and equipment suitable for confirming the diagnosis. Bioweapons are unique in this regard, since detection is likely to be made not by a first responder, but by members of the public health community after exposure and symptoms develop. The destructive capacity of bioweapons is confused or ignored by people normally because they have no idea that they have been exposed to an agent or toxin. During the incubation period, when they do not exhibit symptoms but are contagious to others as we see with the Ebola virus, they can spread the disease by touch or through the air. Incubation periods can be as short as several hours but can be as long as several weeks, which allows for spreading to farther geographic areas because of the efficiency of modern travel. Biological weapons are also effective at disturbing economic and industrial sectors of society, even when animals or plants are the targets because these affect the food supply and commerce. Terrorists could potentially spread a biological agent undetected over a large geographic area, causing significant devastation to crops. If the agent is easily spread then the consequences could cripple an entire industry (Bullock, Haddow, and Coppola 2013). The categories of biological weapons are: Category A Agents such as anthrax, smallpox, the plague, and botulism pose a serious threat to a large geographic area. These have the potential to cause great harm to a large number of people. Category B Agents such as ricin, salmonella, and typhus are easily dispersed over a large geographic area but have low mortality rates. These generally cause illness and require medical attention. Category C Common agents such as tuberculosis may be engineered and these pathogens can cause great damage by terrorists. Nuclear and Radiological Weapons Nuclear and radiological weapons are those that involve the movement of energy through space and through material (Bullock, Haddow, and Coppola 2013). There are three primary mechanisms by which terrorists can use radiation to carry out an attack: dispersal of radiological material, detonation of a nuclear bomb, or an attack on a facility housing nuclear material such as a power plant, research laboratory, or storage site. Radiological dispersion devices (RDDs)are uncomplicated explosive devices that distribute harmful radioactive material upon detonation without the involvement of a nuclear explosion. These devices are often called “dirty bombs.” Certain radiological dispersion devices do not require explosives for dispersal and while illnesses and fatalities very close to the point of dispersal are likely, these devices are more likely to be used to spread terror. As with many biological and chemical weapons, it may be difficult to initially detect that a radiological attack has occurred and special detection equipment is required (Bullock, Haddow, and Coppola 2013). • If a radiological or nuclear attack were to occur, humans and animals would experience both internal and external consequences to exposure to the agents or weapons used. External exposure results from any contact with radioactive material outside the body, while internal exposure requires ingestion, inhalation, or injection of radiological materials. Radiation sickness results from high doses of radiation, and can result in death if the dosage is high enough. Other radiation exposure symptoms are damage to the immune system, higher chance of developing cancer. Or red or burning/stinging skin or eyes. Nuclear weapons are the most devastating of the various attack forms listed previously. They are also the most difficult to develop or procure, therefore they are considered the lowest threat of the three in terms of terrorist potential. A nuclear weapon causes damage to property and harm to life through two separate manners. With the first, a blast is created by the detonation of the bomb, releasing an extremely large amount of energy, which is the result of an uncontrolled chain reaction of atomic splitting. The initial shock wave, which destroys all built structures within a range of up to several miles from detonation site, is followed by a heat wave reaching tens of millions of degrees close to the point of detonation (Bullock, Haddow, and Coppola 2013). The second manner in which nuclear weapons inflict harm is through harmful radiation. This radiation and radiological material is most dangerous close to the area of detonation because high concentrations can cause quick death and particles may also reach high into the atmosphere, posing a threat several hundreds of miles away under the right weather conditions. Radiation can also persist for years after the explosion occurs. Key Characteristics of Weapons of Mass Destruction The following information has been adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman (The Office of Technology Assessment, Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks, U.S. Congress OTAISC559, Washington, D.C. (August 1993), 56-67). Chemical Weapons Destructive Effects: Poisoning skin, lungs, nervous system, or blood. Contaminating areas, equipment, and protective gear for periods of hours to days. Forcing military units to don highly restrictive protection gear or use incapacitating antidotes. False alarms and panic. Misidentification of the agent, or confusion of chemical with biological agents (which may be mixed) leading to failure of defense measures. Military and popular panic and terror effects. Major medical burdens that may lead to mistreatment. Pressure to deploy high cost air and missile defenses. Paralysis or disruption of civil life and economic activity in threatened or attacked areas. Typical Targets: Infantry concentrations, air bases, ships, ports, staging areas, command centers, munitions depots, cities, key oil and electrical facilities, desalinization plants. Typical Missions: Killing military and civilian populations. Intimidation. Attack of civilian populations or targets. Disruption of military operations by requiring protective measures or decontamination. Area or facility denial. Psychological warfare, production of panic, and terror. Limitations: Large amounts of agents are required to achieve high lethality, and military and economic effects are not sufficiently greater than careful target conventional strikes to offer major war fighting advantages. Most agents degrade quickly, and their effect is highly dependent on temperature and weather conditions, height if dissemination, terrain, and the character of buildup areas. Warning devices far more accurate and sensitive than for biological agents. Protective gear and equipment can greatly reduce effects, and sufficiently high numbers of rounds, sorties, and missiles are needed to ease the task of defense, leave buildings and equipment reusable by the enemy, although persistent agents may require decontamination. Persistent agents may contaminate the ground the attacker wants to cross or occupy and force use of protective measures or decontamination. Biological Weapons Destructive Effects: Infectious disease or biochemical poisoning. Contaminating areas, equipment, and protective gear for periods of hours to weeks. Delayed effects and tailoring to produce incapacitation or killing, treatable or non-treatable agents, and be infectious on contact only or transmittable. Forcing military units to don highly restrictive protection gear or use incapacitating vaccine antidotes. False alarms and panic. High risk of at least initial misidentification of the agent, or confusion of chemical with biological agents (which may be mixed) leading to failure of defense measures. Military and popular panic and terror effects. Major medical burdens that may lead to mistreatment. Pressure to deploy high cost air and missile defenses. Paralysis or disruption of civil life and economic activity in threatened or attacked areas. Typical Targets: Infantry concentrations, air bases, ships, ports, staging areas, command centers, munitions depots, cities, key oil and electrical facilities, desalinization plants. Typical Missions: Potentially far more effective against military and civil area targets than chemical weapons. Killing military and civilian populations. Intimidation. Attack of civilian populations or targets. Disruption of military operations by requiring protective measures or decontamination. Area or facility denial. Psychological warfare, production of panic, and terror. Limitations: Most wet agents degrade quickly, although spores, dry encapsulated agents, and some toxins are persistent. Effects usually take some time to develop (although not in the case of some toxins). Effects are unpredictable, and are even more dependent than chemical weapons on temperature and weather conditions, height of dissemination, terrain, and the character of the built-up areas. Major risk of contaminating the wrong area. Warning devices uncertain and may misidentify the agents. Protective gear and equipment can reduce effects. Leave buildings and equipment reusable by the enemy, although persistent agents may require decontamination. Persistent agents may contaminate the group the attacker wants to cross or occupy and force use of protective measures or decontamination. More likely than chemical agents to cross the threshold where nuclear retaliation seems justified. Nuclear Weapons Destructive Effects: Blast, fire, and radiation. Destruction of large areas and production of fallout and contamination, depending on character of weapon and height burst. Contaminating areas, equipment, and protective gear for periods of hours to days. Forcing military units to don highly restrictive protection gear and use massive amounts of decontamination gear. Military and popular panic and terror effects. Massive medical burdens. Pressure to deploy high cost air and missile defenses. Paralysis or disruption of civil life and economic activity in threatened or attacked areas. High long term death rates from radiation. Forced dispersal of military forces and evacuation of civilians. Destruction of military and economic centers, and national political leadership and command authority, potentially altering character of attacked nation and creating major recovery problems. Typical Targets: Hardened targets, enemy facilities, and weapons of mass destruction, enemy economic, political leadership, and national command authority. Infantry concentrations, air bases, ships, ports, staging areas, command centers, munitions depots, cities, key oil and electrical facilities, desalinization plants. Typical Missions: Forced dispersal of military forces and evacuation of civilians. Destruction of military and economic centers, and national political leadership and command authority, potentially altering character of attacked nation and creating major recovery problems. Limitations: High cost. Difficulty of acquiring more than a few weapons. Risk of accidents or failures that hit friendly territory. Crosses threshold to level where nuclear retaliation is likely. Destruction or contamination of territory and facilities attacker wants to cross or occupy. High risk of massive collateral damage to civilians if this is important to attacker. Conclusion This lesson covered WMD in detail along with the limitations of some of them. While the majority of Americans are unaware of the risks involved with WMD, they are familiar with the fact that the effects can be long term and lasting. Emergency responders are tasked with learning more about each type of potential weapon and how to properly respond in the event of an attack. Extensive training is required to have successful response even if the detection of the agent is delayed. Terrorists are innovative and are using many different types of weapons to attack their enemies now. Rather than use traditional explosive devices and injure or kill those directly in the path of the weapon, they are able to disperse agents which can be spread from contact or simply by breathing in the agent.
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Explanation & Answer

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Running head: ECONOMIC THREAT

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Economic Threat
Name
Institution

ECONOMIC THREAT

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Financial power is one of the key determinants as to how long a threat can sustain its
capabilities. When a threat realizes that it cannot sustain its capabilities, then it will seek out
financial help in mitigating mass atrocities which might ensue. There different situations
which are recipes for mass atrocities, for instance, reli...


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