Unit 5 Discussion Example - Initial Post Hypothesis testing typically begins with a theory, a claim, or an assertion about a particular parameter (mean or proportion) of a population. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is an independent agency of the U.S. federal government charged with preventing unfair or deceptive trade practices. It regulates advertising, marketing, and consumer credit practices, and also prevents antitrust agreements and other unfair practices. The FTC publishes press releases regularly about health and fitness claims at https://www.ftc.gov/newsevents/media-resources/truth-advertising/health-claims Find a claim about a product or service from one of the press releases listed in the FTC website. Read through these and select one of interest to you that has not been picked by anyone else yet in class. Initial Response: Formulating the Hypothesis 1) Summarize the advertising claim as shared in the media. What population parameter is the claim about? 2) If you were to formulate a hypothesis test about this product/service, what would your null and alternative hypothesis be? (Be sure to use all the correct notations for H0 and Ha) 3) State whether you have a one-tailed or two-tailed test (Be sure you use the correct inequality signs). ****************************************************************************************** 1) On May 24, 2016: Mosquito Shield Bands (made by Viatek Consumer Products Group) is a bracelet that contains mint oil and promises to protect people from mosquito bites for up to 120 hours. Viatek claims that Mosquito Shield Bands create a “vapor” barrier that can shield anyone within five feet for 96 to 120 hours. https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2016/05/marketers-mosquito-shield-bands-pay-300000barred-making They are claiming that the mean time for people to be protected from mosquitos is between 96-120 hours. The population parameter is population mean, μ. 2) Null hypothesis, H0: μ = 96 hours Alternate hypothesis, Ha: μ < 96 hours 3) This would be a left-tailed hypothesis test. Unit 5 Discussion Example - First Response to a Classmate’s Post First Response: First response: Review one of your classmates’ post. In the context of their hypothesis test, discuss what the Type I Error and Type II Error would mean using a Decision Table as your guide. What level of significance would you suggest based on what a Type I Error or Type II Error would mean? Recall that: Type I Error is defined as rejecting the null hypothesis when in fact it should be accepted. (i.e.“False Positive” , “False Alarm”, defendant found guilty when in fact innocent) Type II Error is defined as accepting the null hypothesis when in fact it should be rejected. (i.e. “False Negative”, defendant found not guilty when in fact guilty) ****************************************************************************************** On May 24, 2016: Mosquito Shield Bands (made by Viatek Consumer Products Group) is a bracelet that contains mint oil and promises to protect people from mosquito bites for up to 120 hours. Viatek claims that Mosquito Shield Bands create a “vapor” barrier that can shield anyone within five feet for 96 to 120 hours. https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2016/05/marketers-mosquito-shield-bands-pay-300000barred-making Null hypothesis, H0: μ = 96 hours Alternate hypothesis, Ha: μ < 96 hours Type I Error: Our evidence is showing that the mean time is not 96 hours but in reality it was. Type II Error: Our evidence is showing that the mean was 96 hours, but it really wasn’t that long of protection! Decision Reject Null, P< alpha Cannot Reject Null, p >= alpha Null is True TYPE I Error : You wrongly assume that the Shield Bands do not protect you for 96 hours. So, you also use other mosquito protection methods. Not a big deal! Good decision Null is False Good decision TYPE II Error : You wrongly assume that the Shield Bands protect you for 96 hours. You are not as protected as you think and you could be at risk of getting bitten by a mosquito. Not a good idea! Based on the Type I error and it is not a big deal if we have this error, I would suggest a higher level of significance since we want to be really sure that our customers are not getting a product that doesn’t do what it says it should do! I would choose α = 0.01 (99% confidence level). Unit 5 Discussion Example - Second Response to a Classmate’s Post Second Response: Review another classmate’s post. Suppose you are the researcher of the hypothesis test and you conclude to either “reject the null hypothesis” or “not to reject the null hypothesis.” Write a statement on your conclusion to the public about this service/product. ****************************************************************************************** Examples will vary.
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