attached is an excel sheet with problems regarding simple and joint possibility

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attached is an excel sheet with problems regarding simple and joint possibility please answer the questions on the excel sheets them selves

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Skill Qualification Task 4 - Simple and Joint Probability Probability is a cornerstone of business decision making! One of the richest people in world was interviewed in Forbes magazi kids to college, teach them how to play poker." Business is all about risk and profit. Here's some reading beyond this SQT: http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/intro_probability.html take note of terminology at this site, including: experiment There are three common ways to establish probability: empirical, theoretical and expert opinion, oh and SWAGs. We have alre A table with relative frequencies is probabilities gathered from survey. As I looked over the data in the discussion b someone drinking 5 or less alcoholic beverages is much greater than the probability of encountering someone who Surveys are commonly used to gather such support for decision making in ambiguous environments. If I ask you the chances of getting heads on a coin toss (with a fair coin), you employ theoretical probability when yo Similarly if I ask what are the chances of drawing a heart from a well shuffled deck of cards? One in four or 25% Expert opinion is basically a matter of asking experts what they think the chances of some event are. If the expert h environment for which you ask the expert to opine, then yes their advice may be useful. Think of driving a car. Hav That's because you are an expert, unlike when you may have learned to drive a standard transmission car and likel intersection or on a hill… or worse an intersection on a hill, ha-ha. But if you are expert and driving in a predictable unpredictable happens (as may in the modern economy) … watch out! SWAG stands for scientific wild ass guess (as opposed to WAG which is just a wild ass guess). This has varying re and military analysis -- two fields known for their great accuracy of predictions -- kidding. Again SWAGs shrouded i opinion may work for a while. They were instrumental in creating wealth up until the economic crash of 2008… then In any event, lets take a look at data collected recently in Henniker NH. This data is presented in a two way frequency distributi Ate at Gilmore dining hall Yesterday Did not eat at Gilmore Yesterday People surveyed who got violently ill yesterday 25 5 People surveyed who did not get violently ill 20 40 45 45 The bold data presented around the margins is called marginal (get it?), single, or simple... meaning it represents a single even The data in the center cells is called joint or compound… meaning it represent compound events: Got sick AND Ate at Gilmore Joint probabilities can be AND's or OR's. For example: 20 people did not get sick AND ate at Gilmore… whereas (20+25+5) or The probability is then calculated by taking the number of interest and dividing it by the total in the survey. Here are a few exam The probability someone picked at random got violently ill equals 30/90 = .33 The probability someone picked at random did not eat at Gilmore equals 45/90 = .50 The probability someone picked at random did not get sick AND ate at Gilmore equals 20/90 = .22 The probability someone picked at random got sick AND did not eat at Gilmore equals 5/90 = .055 The probability someone picked at random got sick OR ate at Gilmore equals (20+25+5)/90 = .55 The probability someone picked at random did not get sick OR did not eat at Gilmore equals (20+40+5)/90 = .722 To make life easy we also abbreviate the process with symbols…. Got sick = S … Not Sick = S' (spoken as "not S")… Ate at G G G' S 25 5 S' 20 40 45 45 Examples: Probability of not getting sick … expressed as… P(S') = 0.67 Probability of eating at Gilmore… expressed as … P(G) = 0.5 Probability of Eating at Gilmore OR getting sick … P(G or S) = 0.55 Try the following probabilities to warm up: P(G') = P(S) = P(G and S) = P(G' and S') = P(G and S') = P(G' or S') = P(G or S') = P(G' or S) = Here's another one to take from the top…the following survey data was taken from the electronics department at a hypothetical Purchased TV T Purchased DVD D Did not purchase TV T' 15 30 Did not Purchase DVD D' 15 30 52 82 Determine the following probabilities: P(T) = P(D') = P(T') = P(D or T) = P(D' and T) = P(D and T) = P(D' and T') = P(D' or T') = P(D or T') = P(D) = Here is a word problem version… first create the table from the problem, then solve for the requested probabilities. A survey was taken of 150 college professors in New Hampshire. Fifty of the professors taught at New England College. One Now it was also learned that thirty of these professors in New Hampshire were homicidal maniacs. Of the fifty professors who taught at New England College twenty were also homicidal maniacs. Create the table… Solve for the following probabilities: What is the probability a professor selected at random: Is a homicidal maniac? Teaches at New England College? Is not a homicidal maniac and teaches at New England College? Is a homicidal maniac and teaches at New England College? Either teaches at New England College or is a homicidal maniac? Does not teach at New England College or is not a homicidal maniac? THE END as interviewed in Forbes magazine and said to parents, "Don't send your at this site, including: experiment, outcome, event, and probability. n, oh and SWAGs. We have already started empirical with the concept of relative frequency. over the data in the discussion board, it appears to me that the probability of encountering y of encountering someone who drinking 15 or more drinks per week. ous environments. oy theoretical probability when you reason there are two outcomes possible each with an equal chance. of cards? One in four or 25% of some event are. If the expert has many thousands of hours of experience in the same predictable eful. Think of driving a car. Have you ever driven somewhere and not remembered driving there? Scary! ndard transmission car and likely suffered tremendous information overload in the middle of an xpert and driving in a predictable environment, you can rely on your expert opinion. BUT if something d ass guess). This has varying reliability, but is often used in many fields including economic dding. Again SWAGs shrouded in clouds of impressive looking numbers and charts … like expert e economic crash of 2008… then they let people down. in a two way frequency distribution table... 30 60 90 aning it represents a single event: Ate at Gilmore; or Got Sick nts: Got sick AND Ate at Gilmore; or Did not get sick AND Ate at Gilmore Gilmore… whereas (20+25+5) or 50 people either got sick OR Ate at Gilmore. the survey. Here are a few examples: 20+40+5)/90 = .722 S' (spoken as "not S")… Ate at Gilmore might be G then didn't eat at Gilmore would be G' (not G) 30 60 90 nics department at a hypothetical department store… 45 67 112 uested probabilities. ht at New England College. One hundred taught at other places.
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Attached.

Skill Qualification Task 4 - Simple and Joint Probability

Probability is a cornerstone of business decision making! One of the richest people in world was interviewed in Forbes magazi
kids to college, teach them how to play poker." Business is all about risk and profit.
Here's some reading beyond this SQT:
http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/intro_probability.html

take note of terminology at this site, including: experiment

There are three common ways to establish probability: empirical, theoretical and expert opinion, oh and SWAGs. We have alre

A table with relative frequencies is probabilities gathered from survey. As I looked over the data in the discussion b
someone drinking 5 or less alcoholic beverages is much greater than the probability of encountering someone who
Surveys are commonly used to gather such support for decision making in ambiguous environments.

If I ask you the chances of getting heads on a coin toss (with a fair coin), you employ theoretical probability when yo
Similarly if I ask what are the chances of drawing a heart from a well shuffled deck of cards? One in four or 25%

Expert opinion is basically a matter of asking experts what they think the chances of some event are. If the expert h
environment for which you ask the expert to opine, then yes their advice may be useful. Think of driving a car. Hav
That's because you are an expert, unlike when you may have learned to driv...


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