MGT530
Critical Thinking Writing Rubric - Module 6
Exceeds
Expectation
Content, Research, and Analysis
21-25 Points
Requirements
Exceeds
Expectation Includes all of the
required
components, as
specified in the
assignment.
21-25 Points
Content
Exceeds
Expectation Demonstrates
substantial and
extensive
knowledge of the
materials, with no
errors or major
omissions.
25-30 Points
Analysis
Exceeds
Expectation Provides strong
thought, insight,
and analysis of
concepts and
applications.
13-15 Points
Sources
Exceeds
Expectation Sources go above
and beyond
required criteria,
and are well
chosen to provide
effective
substance and
perspectives on
the issue under
examination.
Mechanics and Writing
5 Points
Demonstrates
Exceeds
college-level
Expectation proficiency in
Project is clearly
Meets Expectation
Below Expectation
Limited Evidence
16-20 Points
Meets Expectation
- Includes most of
the required
components, as
specified in the
assignment.
11-15 Points
Below Expectation
- Includes some of
the required
components, as
specified in the
assignment.
6-10 Points
Limited Evidence Includes few of the
required
components, as
specified in the
assignment.
16-20 Points
Meets Expectation
- Demonstrates
adequate
knowledge of the
materials; may
include some
minor errors or
omissions.
11-15 Points
Below Expectation
- Demonstrates fair
knowledge of the
materials and/or
includes some
major errors or
omissions.
6-10 Points
Limited Evidence Fails to
demonstrate
knowledge of the
materials and/or
includes many
major errors or
omissions.
19-24 Points
Meets Expectation
- Provides
adequate thought,
insight, and
analysis of
concepts and
applications.
10-12 Points
Meets Expectation
- Sources meet
required criteria
and are adequately
chosen to provide
substance and
perspectives on the
issue under
examination.
13-18 Points
Below Expectation
- Provides poor
thought, insight,
and analysis of
concepts and
applications.
7-12 Points
Limited Evidence Provides little or no
thought, insight,
and analysis of
concepts and
applications.
7-9 Points
Below Expectation
- Sources meet
required criteria,
but are poorly
chosen to provide
substance and
perspectives on the
issue under
examination.
4-6 Points
Limited Evidence Source selection
and integration of
knowledge from
the course is
clearly deficient.
4 Points
Meets Expectation
- Project is fairly
well organized and
3 Points
Below Expectation
- Project is poorly
organized and
1-2 Points
Limited Evidence Project is not
organized or well
MGT530
Critical Thinking Writing Rubric - Module 6
organization,
grammar and
style.
organized, well
written, and in
proper format as
outlined in the
assignment. Strong
sentence and
paragraph
structure; contains
no errors in
grammar, spelling,
APA style, or APA
citations and
references.
Total points possible = 100
written, and is in
proper format as
outlined in the
assignment.
Reasonably good
sentence and
paragraph
structure; may
include a few
minor errors in
grammar, spelling,
APA style, or APA
citations and
references.
written, and may
not follow proper
format as outlined
in the assignment.
Inconsistent to
inadequate
sentence and
paragraph
development,
and/or includes
numerous or major
errors in grammar,
spelling, APA style,
or APA citations
and references.
written, and is not
in proper format as
outlined in the
assignment. Poor
quality work;
unacceptable in
terms of grammar,
spelling, APA style,
and APA citations
and references.
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MGT530 – Operations Management
MGT530 – Operations Management
Reliability and Decision Theory
Module Introduction
Readings
Note: The following readings may require you to be logged in to the Saudi Digital
Library. You may do that here (https://lms.seu.edu.sa/bbcswebdav/xid-27610786_1).
Required
Supplements to Chapters 4 & 5 in Operations Management.
Chapter 4 PowerPoint slides (https://lms.seu.edu.sa/bbcswebdav/courses/MGT-530MASTER/Presentations/Stevenson_13e_Chapter_04.pptx) – Operations Management.
Chapter 5 PowerPoint slides (https://lms.seu.edu.sa/bbcswebdav/courses/MGT-530MASTER/Presentations/Stevenson_13e_Chapter_05.pptx) – Operations Management.
Jiao, L., Pan, Q., Liang, Y., Feng, X., & Yang, F. (2016). Combining sources of evidence with
reliability and importance for decision making (https://link-springercom.sdl.idm.oclc.org/article/10.1007%2Fs10100-013-0334-3). Central European Journal of
Operations Research, 24(1), 87-106.
Nowak, M. (2017). Defining project approach using decision tree and quasi-hierarchical
multiple criteria method
(http://www.sciencedirect.com.sdl.idm.oclc.org/science/article/pii/S1877705817306318).
Procedia Engineering, 172, 791-799.
For Your Success
In this module, the mathematical properties of reliability and the nature of decision theory as it relates to
the operation of an organization will be examined.
This Week:
Complete the Critical Thinking Assignment. You will create a decision tree for a work or personal decision.
Complete the graded quiz, covering Modules 5 and 6.
Learning Outcomes
https://lms.seu.edu.sa/webapps/blackboard/execute/content/file?cmd=view&content_id=_3259043_1&course_id=_43144_1&framesetWrapped=true
1. Define
reliability and decision theory.
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1. Define reliability and decision theory.
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MGT530 – Operations Management
2. Perform simple reliability computations.
3. Describe the different environments under which operations decisions are made.
4. Describe techniques that apply to decision-making under uncertainty.
5. Apply the expected value approach.
6. Apply sensitivity analysis.
1. Reliability
A product, service, part, or system is considered reliable when it does what is intended given the conditions
for which it was made (Stevenson, 2018). If there is a 90% probability that a product works as intended, we
would be describing its reliability. That means that 10% of the time, or one in 10 times, the product would
fail. Is that 90% level of reliability acceptable? In some cases, it may be, depending on the item’s
importance or cost, while in other cases a 90% reliability would not be acceptable. In the case of the spring
in a retractable ball point pen, we might find that a 10% failure rate is acceptable if the pen is inexpensive.
Still, in the case of a Mont Blanc (http://www.montblanc.com/) pen, a reliability of 90% for any part
may be unacceptable.
In determining reliability, we focus on either one point in time, or length of service (Stevenson, 2018). The
one point in time case is often referred to as the probability of functioning when activated. We might
think of a light bulb for the one point in time case, because we want the light to function properly when
activated to do so. With this type of occurrence, where we must have light every time it is required, we
might design the product so that there is redundancy with backup light bulbs to increase reliability.
View this video about redundancy and resiliency.
Understanding Redundancy vs Resiliency: Physical Design
(Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEWEFwZfOVU)
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From a physical perspective, the video explains the difference between redundancy and resiliency.
We can calculate the reliability of three light bulbs in a product functioning when activated with
probabilities of 90%, 80%, and 70% using the following formula:
1 – [(1 – 0.90) X (1 – 0.80) X (1 – 0.70)] = 0.994 or 99.4%
reliability
View this video example on calculating reliability:
OM Calculation: Reliability
(Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oItz2M-xgWk)
Considers how reliability is calculated.
Your required reading by Jiao, Pan, Liang, Feng, and Yang (2016) proposed the use of a combination of
sources of evidence with both reliability and importance.
Length of service is a second situation where reliability is important in operations management. You can
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think
of this type of reliability as related to product warranties. Product failures are calculated over time
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MGT530 – Operations Management
to determine a typical profile. The mean time between failures (MTBF) calculation takes into account
the average length of time between failures. We find that MTBF follows a curve where new components
have a higher failure rate (infant mortality), than products that have been functioning for a while. Toward
the end of a product’s life due to wearing out, MTBF increases again. The curve is described as resembling
a bathtub.
Click to enlarge
(Source: Stevenson, 2018, p. 177)
2. Decisions and Decision Trees
The decisions that operations managers make are dependent on reliability data that help them select
alternatives to fix problems in the organization. Decision theory is dependent on a formal process as
shown below.
Download Transcript (media/SEU_MGT530_Interactive_Mod06_P02.pdf)
View more about decision theory in this video tutorial.
Decision Theory Basics
(Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7HEKtockRs)
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MGT530 – Operations Management
Several basic decision theory techniques are highlighted in this tutorial.
Sometimes it is easier to visualize alternatives and the impact of what one decision means for processes
and systems downstream than it is to rely on calculations that do not capture consequences. Decision trees
are an excellent way of capturing both the possible alternatives and the consequences. Decision trees can
be coupled with the expected monetary value of an alternative, making the graphical representation of the
decisions and alternatives easier to evaluate.
Click to enlarge
(Source: Stevenson, 2018, p. 226)
View the following video to learn more about decision trees in risk analysis.
Using Decision Trees for Risk Analysis
(Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f5I99Q9hwY)
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MGT530 – Operations Management
Review the decision tree in the required reading by Nowak, 2017. You will have an opportunity to show
your understanding of decision trees in your written assignment this week.
3. Uncertainty and Sensitivity
The different environments under which operations decisions are made involve cases where relevant
information is known, which is known as certainty, and cases where it is impossible to determine the
likelihood of an event occurring, which is referred to as uncertainty. In cases where the probability of an
event occurring can be determined, risk can be evaluated.
Let’s take a closer look at these environmental scenarios:
Certain Alternatives
Uncertain Alternatives
If acting in a case where future alternatives are certain, decisions are simple: You choose the best
alternative using the criteria defined in the decision theory process.
Explore
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MGT530 – Operations Management
Click on the following link to learn more about decisions analysis – Operations
Management 101: Introduction to Decision Analysis
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hy48AFKEepo).
Check Your Understanding
Test your knowledge of some of the key terms covered in this module.
Check Your Understanding
Click Here to Begin
References
Liang, Y., Feng, X., & Yang, F. (2016, Mar). Combining sources of evidence with reliability and
importance for decision making. Central European Journal of Operations Research, 24(1), 87106.
Nowak, M. (2017). Defining project approach using decision tree and quasi-hierarchical multiple
criteria method. Procedia Engineering, 172, 791-799. Retrieved from
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877705817306318
Stevenson, W. (2018). Operations management (13th ed.). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin.
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