MATH225N-61306 Modules Week 7 Assignment: Lab March 2020  Home Syllabus Announcements Resources Modules Files Grades People Bookstore Library Guides Media Gallery My Media New Webex Academic Support           Week 7 Assignment: Lab          Due Apr 19 by                  11:59pm  Points 50  Submitting a file upload  Required Resources Read/review the following resources for this activity: OpenStax Textbook: Chapter 8 Lesson Chamberlain University Library Scenario/Summary The highlight of this week's lab is confidence intervals and the use  of these intervals in the health sciences. There is a short reading that  specifically relates confidence intervals to health sciences and then  you are asked to demonstrate your knowledge of confidence intervals by  applying them in a practical manner. Deliverables The deliverable is a Word document with your answers to the questions posed below based on the article you find. Required Software Microsoft Word Internet access to read articles Steps to Complete the Week 7 Lab Step 1: Find these articles in the Chamberlain Library. Once you  click each link, you will be logged into the Library and then click on  "PDF Full Text". First Article: Confidence Intervals, Part 1 (Links to an external site.) (Links to an external site.)Links to an external site. (Links to an external site.)  Second Article: Confidence Intervals, Part 2 (Links to an external site.) (Links to an external site.)Links to an external site. (Links to an external site.)  Step 2: Consider the use of confidence intervals in health sciences with these articles as inspiration and insights. Step 3: Using the data you collected for the Week 5 Lab (heights of  10 different people that you work with), discuss your method of  collection for the values that you are using in your study. What are  some faults with this type of data collection? What other type of data  collection could you have used, and how might this have affected your  study? Step 4: Now use the Week 6 Spreadsheet (Links to an external site.) to help you with calculations for the following questions/statements. Give a point estimate for the average height of all people at the  place where you work. Start by putting the ten heights you are working  with into the blue Data column of the spreadsheet. What is your point estimate, and what does this mean?   Find a 95% confidence interval for the true mean height of all the people at your place of work. What is the interval?   Give a practical interpretation of the interval you found in part b,  and explain carefully what the output means. (For example, you might  say, "I am 95% confident that the true mean height of all of the people  in my company is between 64 inches and 68 inches"). Post a screenshot of your work from the t value Confidence Interval for µ from the Confidence Interval tab on the Week 6 Excel spreadsheet Step 5: Now, find a 99% confidence interval for the same data. Would  the margin of error be larger or smaller for the 99% CI? Explain your  reasoning. Step 6: Save the Week 7 Lab document with your answers and include your name in the title. Step 7: Submit the document. Grading This activity will be graded based on the Week 7 Lab Rubric. Course Outcomes (CO): 8 Due Date: By 11:59 p.m. MT on Sunday Rubric Week 7 Assignment: Lab  Week 7 Assignment: Lab     Criteria    Ratings      Pts This criterion is linked to a Learning Outcome Data Collection and Pitfalls Range    12.0                    pts                                  Proficient  Lab includes all of the following: *10 data points/heights  *method of  collection *faults with method of collection used *a different method of  collection 10.2                    pts                                  Above  Average Lab includes 3 out of 4 of the following: *10 data  points/heights  *method of collection *faults with method of collection  used *a different method of collection 8.4                    pts                                  Average  Lab includes 2 out of 4 of the following: *10 data points/heights   *method of collection *faults with method of collection used *a  different method of collection 6.6                    pts                                  Needs  Improvement Lab includes 1 out of 4 of the following: *10 data  points/heights  *method of collection *faults with method of collection  used *a different method of collection 0.0                    pts                                  No Effort 12.0 pts   This criterion is linked to a Learning Outcome Estimate a Confidence Interval  15.0                    pts                                  Proficient  Lab includes all of the following: *point estimate *95% confidence  interval *screenshot of Excel spreadsheet *practical interpretation on  confidence interval 12.75                    pts                                  Above  Average Lab includes 3 out of 4 of the following:  *point estimate *95%  confidence interval *screenshot of Excel spreadsheet *practical  interpretation on confidence interval 10.5                    pts                                  Average  Lab includes 2 out of 4 of the following:  *point estimate *95%  confidence interval *screenshot of Excel spreadsheet *practical  interpretation on confidence interval 8.25                    pts                                  Needs  Improvement Lab includes 1 out of 4 of the following:  *point estimate  *95% confidence interval *screenshot of Excel spreadsheet *practical  interpretation on confidence interval 0.0                    pts                                  No Effort 15.0 pts   This criterion is linked to a Learning Outcome Interpret a Confidence Interval  15.0                    pts                                  Proficient  Lab addresses all of the following well *a 99% confidence interval  *comparison of margins of error for 99% and 95%  *explanation of  reasoning 12.75                    pts                                  Above  Average Lab addresses 2 out of 3 of the following well *a 99% confidence  interval *comparison of margins of error for 99% and 95% *explanation  of reasoning 10.5                    pts                                  Average  Lab addresses 1 out of 3 of the following well *a 99% confidence  interval *comparison of margins of error for 99% and 95% *explanation of  reasoning 8.25                    pts                                  Needs  Improvement Lab mentions but does not explain fully any of the following   *a 99% confidence interval *comparison of margins of error for 99% and  95% *explanation of reasoning 0.0                    pts                                  No Effort 15.0 pts   This criterion is linked to a Learning Outcome Grammar and Formatting  8.0                    pts                                  Proficient Lab is easy to read and presents material in a logical order with no grammatical errors. 6.8                    pts                                  Above  Average Lab is easy to read and presents material in a logical order.  There are a few grammatical errors but they do not distract from  readability. 5.6                    pts                                  Average Lab is easy to read and has few grammatical errors, but it is not logically organized. 4.4                    pts                                  Needs Improvement There are significant grammatical errors and organizational issues that distract from readability. 0.0                    pts                                  No Effort 8.0 pts

The purpose of this assignment is to use predictive analytics techniques and the graphs and charts associated with these techniques to forecast outcomes and make business decisions.Using specified data files, chapter example files, and templates from the “Topic 1 Student Data, Template, and Example Files” topic material, complete Chapter 12 Problems 28, 30, 34, 46, 60, 62 (b through e), and 63 from the textbook. Use the Palisade DecisionTools Excel software to complete these problems where requested and applicable. Problem 60 should be completed using only Excel.To receive full credit on the assignment, complete the following.Ensure that the Palisade software output is included with your submission.Ensure that Excel files include the associated cell functions and/or formulas if functions and/or formulas are used.Include a written response to all narrative questions presented in the problem by placing it in the associated Excel file.Place each problem in its own Excel file. Ensure that your first and last name are in your Excel file names.Chapter 12 Problems 28, 30, 34, 46, 60, 62 (b through e), and 63 from the textbook:28. The file P12_10.xlsx contains annual revenues for a convenience store. If you want to forecast revenue for the next few years with the moving averages method, what span should you use? Will any span work well?.30. The file P02_28.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with one or more spans of your choice to forecast U.S. retail sales for the next 12 months. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?34. Consider the American Express closing price data in the file P12_16.xlsx.a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think should be used for forecasting? Why?b. Use Holt’s exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using no holdout period and requesting 20 days of future forecasts. Use the default smoothing constants of 0.1.c. Repeat part b, optimizing the smoothing constants. Does it make much of an improvement?d. Repeat parts a and b, this time using a holdout period of 50 days.e. Write a short report to summarize your results.46. The file P12_46.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials, garden equipment, and supplies dealers.a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern.b. Use the Deseasonalize option in StatTools to forecast the deseasonalized data for each month of the next year using the moving average method with an appropriate span.c. Does Holt’s exponential smoothing method, with optimal smoothing constants, outperform the moving average method employed in part b? Demonstrate why or why not.60. The file P12_60.xlsx lists annual revenues (in millions of dollars) for Nike. Create a time series graph of these data. Then superimpose a trend line with Excel’s Trendline option. Which of the possible Trendline options seems to provide the best fit? Using this option, what are your forecasts for the next two years?62. The file P12_62.xlsx contains data on a motel chain’s revenue and advertising.b. Use simple exponential smoothing to make predictions for the motel chain’s revenues during the next four quarters.c. Use Holt’s method to make forecasts for the motel chain’s revenues during the next four quarters.d. Use Winters’ method to determine predictions for the motel chain’s revenues during the next four quarters.e. Which of these forecasting methods would you expect to be the most accurate for these data?63. The file P12_63.xlsx contains data on monthly U.S. permits for new housing units (in thousands of houses).a. Using Winters’ method, find values of , , and  that yield an RMSE as small as possible. Does this method track the housing crash in recent years?b. Although we have not discussed autocorrelation for smoothing methods, good forecasts derived from smoothing methods should exhibit no substantial autocorrelation in their forecast errors. Is this true for the forecasts in part a?c. At the end of the observed period, what is the forecast of housing sales during the next few months?PLEASE USE THE ATTACHED "MIS-665-RS-Topic-1-Student-Data-Template-and-Example-Files.zip" TO GAIN THE DATA FOR EACH QUESTION.