The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015 asdf UNITED NATIONS This report is based on a master set of data that has been compiled by the Inter-Agency and Expert Group on MDG Indicators led by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, in response to the wishes of the General Assembly for periodic assessment of progress towards the MDGs. The Group comprises representatives of the international organizations whose activities include the preparation of one or more of the series of statistical indicators that were identified as appropriate for monitoring progress towards the MDGs, as reflected in the list below. A number of national statisticians and outside expert advisers also contributed. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR WESTERN ASIA ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE Cover Inside ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS INTERNATIONAL LABOUR ORGANIZATION INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND INTERNATIONAL TELECOMMUNICATION UNION INTERNATIONAL TRADE CENTRE INTER-PARLIAMENTARY UNION JOINT UNITED NATIONS PROGRAMME ON HIV/AIDS ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT SECRETARIAT OF THE PACIFIC COMMUNITY THE WORLD BANK UNITED NATIONS CHILDREN’S FUND UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME UNITED NATIONS EDUCATIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND CULTURAL ORGANIZATION UNITED NATIONS ENTITY FOR GENDER EQUALITY AND THE EMPOWERMENT OF WOMEN - UN WOMEN UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE UNITED NATIONS HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR REFUGEES UNITED NATIONS HUMAN SETTLEMENTS PROGRAMME UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION UNITED NATIONS POPULATION FUND WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015 asdf United Nations New York, 2015 Foreword | 3 Foreword The global mobilization behind the Millennium Development Goals has produced the most successful anti-poverty movement in history. The landmark commitment entered into by world leaders in the year 2000—to “spare no effort to free our fellow men, women and children from the abject and dehumanizing conditions of extreme poverty”—was translated into an inspiring framework of eight goals and, then, into wide-ranging practical steps that have enabled people across the world to improve their lives and their future prospects. The MDGs helped to lift more than one billion people out of extreme poverty, to make inroads against hunger, to enable more girls to attend school than ever before and to protect our planet. They generated new and innovative partnerships, galvanized public opinion and showed the immense value of setting ambitious goals. By putting people and their immediate needs at the forefront, the MDGs reshaped decision-making in developed and developing countries alike. Yet for all the remarkable gains, I am keenly aware that inequalities persist and that progress has been uneven. The world’s poor remain overwhelmingly concentrated in some parts of the world. In 2011, nearly 60 per cent of the world’s one billion extremely poor people lived in just five countries. Too many women continue to die during pregnancy or from childbirth-related complications. Progress tends to bypass women and those who are lowest on the economic ladder or are disadvantaged because of their age, disability or ethnicity. Disparities between rural and urban areas remain pronounced. Experiences and evidence from the efforts to achieve the MDGs demonstrate that we know what to do. But further progress will require an unswerving political will, and collective, long-term effort. We need to tackle root causes and do more to integrate the economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. The emerging post-2015 development agenda, including the set of Sustainable Development Goals, strives to reflect these lessons, build on our successes and put all countries, together, firmly on track towards a more prosperous, sustainable and equitable world. Reflecting on the MDGs and looking ahead to the next fifteen years, there is no question that we can deliver on our shared responsibility to put an end to poverty, leave no one behind and create a world of dignity for all. Ban Ki-moon Secretary-General, United Nations 4 | The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015 Overview At the beginning of the new millennium, world leaders gathered at the United Nations to shape a broad vision to fight poverty in its many dimensions. That vision, which was translated into eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), has remained the overarching development framework for the world for the past 15 years. As we reach the end of the MDG period, the world community has reason to celebrate. Thanks to concerted global, regional, national and local efforts, the MDGs have saved the lives of millions and improved conditions for many more. The data and analysis presented in this report prove that, with targeted interventions, sound strategies, adequate resources and political will, even the poorest countries can make dramatic and unprecedented progress. The report also acknowledges uneven achievements and shortfalls in many areas. The work is not complete, and it must continue in the new development era. Unprecedented efforts have resulted in profound achievements Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger 1990 Extreme poverty rate 47% in developing countries 2015 14% 1990 47% 2015 14% •• Extreme poverty has declined significantly over the last two decades. In 1990, nearly half of the population in the developing world lived on less than $1.25 a day; that proportion dropped to 14 per cent in 2015. •• Globally, the number of people living in extreme poverty has declined by more Global number of extreme poor than half, falling from 1.9 billion in 1990 to 836 million in 2015. Most progress has occurred since 2000. •• The number of people in the working middle class—living on more than $4 a •• The proportion of undernourished people in the developing regions has fallen 1999 by almost half since 1990, from 23.3 per cent in 1990–1992 to 12.9 per cent in 2014–2016. 836 million 836 million 1990 1,751 million1,751 million 1,926 million1,926 million day—has almost tripled between 1991 and 2015. This group now makes up half the workforce in the developing regions, up from just 18 per cent in 1991. 2015 Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education 1990 1999 100 2015 2000 out-of-school children Global million of2015 primary school age 57 million 100 million 57 million 2000 2015 Primary school net enrolment rate in sub-Saharan Africa 80% 80% 60% 52% 60% 20% 40% 0 20% 0 52% cent in 2015, up from 83 per cent in 2000. •• The number of out-of-school children of primary school age worldwide has fallen by almost half, to an estimated 57 million in 2015, down from 100 million in 2000. •• Sub-Saharan Africa has had the best record of improvement in primary education of any region since the MDGs were established. The region achieved a 20 percentage point increase in the net enrolment rate from 2000 to 2015, compared to a gain of 8 percentage points between 1990 and 2000. •• The literacy rate among youth aged 15 to 24 has increased globally from 83 per 60% 80% 80% 40% •• The primary school net enrolment rate in the developing regions has reached 91 per 60% 1990 2000 2015 1990 2000 2015 cent to 91 per cent between 1990 and 2015. The gap between women and men has narrowed. Overview | 5 Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Primary school enrolment ratio in Southern Asia 74 74 103 103 100 100 100 100 1990 1990 •• Many more girls are now in school compared to 15 years ago. The developing regions as a whole have achieved the target to eliminate gender disparity in primary, secondary and tertiary education. •• In Southern Asia, only 74 girls were enrolled in primary school for every 100 boys in 1990. Today, 103 girls are enrolled for every 100 boys. 2015 2015 •• Women now make up 41 per cent of paid workers outside the agricultural sector, an increase from 35 per cent in 1990. 90% of countries have more women in parliament since 1995 •• Between 1991 and 2015, the proportion of women in vulnerable employment as a share of total female employment has declined 13 percentage points. In contrast, vulnerable employment among men fell by 9 percentage points. •• Women have gained ground in parliamentary representation in nearly 90 per cent of the 174 countries with data over the past 20 years. The average proportion of women in parliament has nearly doubled during the same period. Yet still only one in five members are women. Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Global number of deaths 12.7 of children under five 1990 million 1990 2015 12.7 6 million million 2015 6 million •• The global under-five mortality rate has declined by more than half, dropping from 90 to 43 deaths per 1,000 live births between 1990 and 2015. •• Despite population growth in the developing regions, the number of deaths of children under five has declined from 12.7 million in 1990 to almost 6 million in 2015 globally. •• Since the early 1990s, the rate of reduction of under-five mortality has more than Global measles vaccine coverage •• In sub-Saharan Africa, the annual rate of reduction of under-five mortality was over 100% 80% 100% 60% 80% 84% 84% 73% •• Measles vaccination helped prevent nearly 15.6 million deaths between 2000 and 2013. The number of globally reported measles cases declined by 67 per cent for the same period. 20% 40% 0 five times faster during 2005–2013 than it was during 1990–1995. 73% 40% 60% 0 20% tripled globally. •• About 84 per cent of children worldwide received at least one dose of measles2000 2013 2000 2013 containing vaccine in 2013, up from 73 per cent in 2000. 6 | The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015 Goal 5: Improve maternal HEALTH Global maternal mortality ratio (deaths per 100,000 live births) •• Since 1990, the maternal mortality ratio has declined by 45 per cent worldwide, and most of the reduction has occurred since 2000. •• In Southern Asia, the maternal mortality ratio declined by 64 per cent between 1990 and 2013, and in sub-Saharan Africa it fell by 49 per cent. •• More than 71 per cent of births were assisted by skilled health personnel globally in 380 2014, an increase from 59 per cent in 1990. 330 380 210 330 •• In Northern Africa, the proportion of pregnant women who received four or more 210 1990 2000 antenatal visits increased from 50 per cent to 89 percent between 1990 and 2014. 2013 Global1990 births2000 attended by 2013 80% health personnel skilled •• Contraceptive prevalence among women aged 15 to 49, married or in a union, increased from 55 per cent in 1990 worldwide to 64 per cent in 2015. 80% 70% 71% 70% 71% 60% 60% 50% 50% 59% 59% 1990 2015 1990 2014 Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases Global antiretroviral therapy treatment 13.6 million •• New HIV infections fell by approximately 40 per cent between 2000 and 2013, from an estimated 3.5 million cases to 2.1 million. •• By June 2014, 13.6 million people living with HIV were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) globally, an immense increase from just 800,000 in 2003. ART averted 7.6 million deaths from AIDS between 1995 and 2013. 13.6 million 0.8 million ART ART 2003 0.8 million 2014 ART Number of insecticidetreated mosquito nets delivered2003 in sub-Saharan 2014 Africa, 2004–2014 ART •• Over 6.2 million malaria deaths have been averted between 2000 and 2015, primarily of children under five years of age in sub-Saharan Africa. The global malaria incidence rate has fallen by an estimated 37 per cent and the mortality rate by 58 per cent. •• More than 900 million insecticide-treated mosquito nets were delivered to malaria-endemic countries in sub-Saharan Africa between 2004 and 2014. •• Between 2000 and 2013, tuberculosis prevention, diagnosis and treatment interventions saved an estimated 37 million lives. The tuberculosis mortality rate fell by 45 per cent and the prevalence rate by 41 per cent between 1990 and 2013. 900 million 900 million Overview | 7 Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability 1.9 billion people have gained access to piped drinking water since 1990 2.3 billion 4.2 billion 2.3 billion 4.2 billion •• Ozone-depleting substances have been virtually eliminated since 1990, and the ozone layer is expected to recover by the middle of this century. •• Terrestrial and marine protected areas in many regions have increased substantially since 1990. In Latin America and the Caribbean, coverage of terrestrial protected areas rose from 8.8 per cent to 23.4 per cent between 1990 and 2014. •• In 2015, 91 per cent of the global population is using an improved drinking water source, compared to 76 per cent in 1990. 1990 2015 98% of ozone-depleting2015 1990 substances eliminated since 1990 •• Of the 2.6 billion people who have gained access to improved drinking water since 1990, 1.9 billion gained access to piped drinking water on premises. Over half of the global population (58 per cent) now enjoys this higher level of service. •• Globally, 147 countries have met the drinking water target, 95 countries have met the sanitation target and 77 countries have met both. •• Worldwide, 2.1 billion people have gained access to improved sanitation. The proportion of people practicing open defecation has fallen almost by half since 1990. •• The proportion of urban population living in slums in the developing regions fell from approximately 39.4 per cent in 2000 to 29.7 per cent in 2014. Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development Official development assistance $135 billion $81 billion $81 billion $135 billion $ $ 2000 $ $ 1990 2014 2014 •• Official development assistance from developed countries increased by 66 per cent in real terms between 2000 and 2014, reaching $135.2 billion. •• In 2014, Denmark, Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom continued to exceed the United Nations official development assistance target of 0.7 per cent of gross national income. •• In 2014, 79 per cent of imports from developing to developed countries were admitted duty free, up from 65 per cent in 2000. •• The proportion of external debt service to export revenue in developing countries fell from 12 per cent in 2000 to 3 per cent in 2013. Global Internet penetration 43% 43% •• As of 2015, 95 per cent of the world’s population is covered by a mobile-cellular signal. •• The number of mobile-cellular subscriptions has grown almost tenfold in the last 15 6% years, from 738 million in 2000 to over 7 billion in 2015. 6% •• Internet penetration has grown from just over 6 per cent of the world’s population 2000 2015 2000 2015 in 2000 to 43 per cent in 2015. As a result, 3.2 billion people are linked to a global network of content and applications. 8 | The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015 Despite many successes, the poorest and most vulnerable people are being left behind Although significant achievements have been made on many of the MDG targets worldwide, progress has been uneven across regions and countries, leaving significant gaps. Millions of people are being left behind, especially the poorest and those disadvantaged because of their sex, age, disability, ethnicity or geographic location. Targeted efforts will be needed to reach the most vulnerable people. XX Gender inequality persists Women continue to face discrimination in access to work, economic assets and participation in private and public decision-making. Women are also more likely to live in poverty than men. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the ratio of women to men in poor households increased from 108 women for every 100 men in 1997 to 117 women for every 100 men in 2012, despite declining poverty rates for the whole region. Women remain at a disadvantage in the labour market. Globally, about three quarters of working-age men participate in the labour force, compared to only half of working-age women. Women earn 24 per cent less than men globally. In 85 per cent of the 92 countries with data on unemployment rates by level of education for the years 2012–2013, women with advanced education have higher rates of unemployment than men with similar levels of education. Despite continuous progress, today the world still has far to go towards equal gender representation in private and public decision-making. XX Big gaps exist between the poorest and richest households, and between rural and urban areas In the developing regions, children from the poorest 20 per cent of households are more than twice as likely to be stunted as those from the wealthiest 20 per cent. Children in the poorest households are four times as likely to be out of school as those in the richest households. Under-five mortality rates are almost twice as high for children in the poorest households as for children in the richest. In rural areas, only 56 per cent of births are attended by skilled health personnel, compared with 87 per cent in urban areas. About 16 per cent of the rural population do not use improved drinking water sources, compared to 4 per cent of the urban population. About 50 per cent of people living in rural areas lack improved sanitation facilities, compared to only 18 per cent of people in urban areas. XX Climate change and environmental degradation undermine progress achieved, and poor people suffer the most Global emissions of carbon dioxide have increased by over 50 per cent since 1990. Addressing the unabated rise in greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting likely impacts of climate change, such as altered ecosystems, weather extremes and risks to society, remains an urgent, critical challenge for the global community. An estimated 5.2 million hectares of forest were lost in 2010, an area about the size of Costa Rica. Overexploitation of marine fish stocks led to declines in the percentage of stocks within safe biological limits, down from 90 per cent in 1974 to 71 per cent in 2011. Species are declining overall in numbers and distribution. This means they are increasingly threatened with extinction. Water scarcity affects 40 per cent of people in the world and is projected to increase. Poor people’s livelihoods are more directly tied to natural resources, and as they often live in the most vulnerable areas, they suffer the most from environmental degradation. XX Conflicts remain the biggest threat to human development By the end of 2014, conflicts had forced almost 60 million people to abandon their homes—the highest level recorded since the Second World War. If these people were a nation, they would make up the twentyfourth largest country in the world. Every day, 42,000 people on average are forcibly displaced and compelled to seek protection due to conflicts, almost four times the 2010 number of 11,000. Children accounted for half of the global refugee population under the responsibility of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in 2014. In countries affected by conflict, the proportion of out-of-school children increased from 30 per cent in 1999 to 36 per cent in 2012. Fragile and conflict-affected countries typically have the highest poverty rates. XX Millions of poor people still live in poverty and hunger, without access to basic services Despite enormous progress, even today, about 800 million people still live in extreme poverty and suffer from hunger. Over 160 million children under age five have inadequate height for their age due to insufficient food. Currently, 57 million children of primary school age are not in school. Almost half of global workers are still working in vulnerable conditions, rarely enjoying the benefits associated with decent work. About 16,000 children die each day before celebrating their Overview fifth birthday, mostly from preventable causes. The maternal mortality ratio in the developing regions is 14 times higher than in the developed regions. Just half of pregnant women in the developing regions receive the recommended minimum of four antenatal care visits. Only an estimated 36 per cent of the 31.5 million people living with HIV in the developing regions were receiving | 9 ART in 2013. In 2015, one in three people (2.4 billion) still use unimproved sanitation facilities, including 946 million people who still practise open defecation. Today over 880 million people are estimated to be living in slum-like conditions in the developing world’s cities. With global action, these numbers can be turned around. The successes of the MDG agenda prove that global action works. It is the only path to ensure that the new development agenda leaves no one behind The global community stands at a historic crossroads in 2015. As the MDGs are coming to their deadline, the world has the opportunity to build on their successes and momentum, while also embracing new ambitions for the future we want. A bold new agenda is emerging to transform the world to better meet human needs and the requirements of economic transformation, while protecting the environment, ensuring peace and realizing human rights. At the core of this agenda is sustainable development, which must become a living reality for every person on the planet. This is the final MDG report. It documents the 15-year effort to achieve the aspirational goals set out in the Millennium Declaration and highlights the many successes across the globe, but acknowledges the gaps that remain. The experience of the MDGs offers numerous lessons, and they will serve as the springboard for our next steps. Leaders and stakeholders in every nation will work together, redoubling efforts to achieve a truly universal and transformative agenda. This is the only way to ensure a sustainable future and a dignified life for all people everywhere. Wu Hongbo Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs 10 | The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015 Measure what we treasure: sustainable data for sustainable development As the post-2015 development agenda is being established, strengthening data production and the use of better data in policymaking and monitoring are becoming increasingly recognized as fundamental means for development. The MDG monitoring experience has clearly demonstrated that effective use of data can help to galvanize development efforts, implement successful targeted interventions, track performance and improve accountability. Thus sustainable development demands a data revolution to improve the availability, quality, timeliness and disaggregation of data to support the implementation of the new development agenda at all levels. The monitoring of the MDGs taught us that data are an indispensable element of the development agenda XX What gets measured gets done The MDG framework strengthened the use of robust and reliable data for evidence-based decision-making, as many countries integrated the MDGs into their own national priorities and development strategies. Using reliable data to monitor progress towards the MDGs also allowed governments at national and subnational levels to effectively focus their development policies, programmes and interventions. Data at the local level proved extremely helpful. Subnational monitoring of net enrolment ratios in primary and secondary education revealed large disparities between the arid and semi-arid areas of northern Kenya. In response, the Kenyan government targeted these deprived areas by establishing a specific school feeding programme, low-cost boarding primary schools and mobile schools. In Colombia, data at the subnational level showed sharply uneven rates of progress, which motivated local governments to implement key interventions according to local priorities. The Nariño region, for instance, focused on Goal 3, aiming to reduce the large gender gaps in employment and political participation. In Cundinamarca, the focus was on accelerating progress on Goal 1 in the poorest municipalities. XX Real data improvement occurs when demand and policy support meet The MDGs energized efforts to increase the production and use of development data. Their monitoring requirements drew attention to the need for strengthening statistical capacity and improving statistical methodologies and information systems at both national and international levels. Over time, this increased the availability of more and better data, while improving coordination within national statistical systems and leading to new statistical methodologies. To support MDGs monitoring in the Philippines, the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) was designated as the national custodian of MDG indicators. The Board formulated an MDGs statistical development programme, which enabled data compilation from different sources and formulation of programmes and policies to support the collection, dissemination and improvement of data for policymaking. A community-based monitoring system was also developed to provide data to monitor and evaluate local development plans. Global monitoring of the MDGs improved dramatically, assisted by a close collaboration between international agencies and country experts. Between 2000 and 2015, the number of surveys and censuses in the database of the WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme on Water Supply and Sanitation has increased six-fold. Country coverage for a subset of 22 official MDG indicators improved significantly between 2003 and 2014. While in 2003, only 2 per cent of developing countries had at least two data points for 16 or more of the 22 indicators, by 2014 this figure had reached 79 per cent. This reflects the increased capacity of national statistical systems to address monitoring requirements and improvements in datareporting mechanisms. It also shows the benefits of better access to national sources by international agencies. Measure what we treasure: sustainable data for sustainable development | Proportion of countries and territories in the developing regions with at least two data points for 22 selected MDG indicators, 2003, 2006 and 2014 (percentage) Better data are needed for the post-2015 development agenda 100 XX Only by counting the uncounted can we reach the 90 79 80 70 64 60 48 50 40 30 30 20 19 19 10 2 6 13 12 2 6 0 2003 2006 2014 Number of indicator series with at least two data points: 0–5 11–15 6–10 16–22 XX Despite improvement, critical data for development policymaking are still lacking Large data gaps remain in several development areas. Poor data quality, lack of timely data and unavailability of disaggregated data on important dimensions are among the major challenges. As a result, many national and local governments continue to rely on outdated data or data of insufficient quality to make planning and decisions. A World Bank study shows that about half of the 155 countries lack adequate data to monitor poverty and, as a result, the poorest people in these countries often remain invisible. During the 10-year period between 2002 and 2011, as many as 57 countries (37 per cent) had none or only one poverty rate estimate. In sub-Saharan Africa, where poverty is most severe, 61 per cent of countries have no adequate data to monitor poverty trends. Lack of well-functioning civil registration systems with national coverage also results in serious data gaps, especially for vital statistics. According to the UN Interagency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, only around 60 countries have such systems; the others rely mostly on household surveys or censuses to estimate child mortality. 11 unreached High-quality data disaggregated by key dimensions beyond the basics of age and sex, including migrant status, indigenous status, ethnicity and disability among others, are key to making decisions and monitoring progress towards achieving sustainable development for all. Estimating the size and exploring the attributes of small population groups requires large sample sizes or full population counts. National population and housing censuses provide an important data source and sampling frame for estimating the size of vulnerable minority groups. Remarkable progress has been made, for instance, in the availability of detailed data on indigenous peoples in Latin America. In the 2010 census round, 17 of 20 countries in Latin America included questions on indigenous people to provide detailed data for this group. Data on maternal care revealed that around 2000, the proportion of births attended by health professionals was 38 percentage points lower among indigenous women than non-indigenous women in Mexico, and 45 percentage points lower in Peru. The availability of these disaggregated data led to the adoption of more effective interventions to reduce inequality. By 2012, more than 80 per cent of births to indigenous women were attended by health personnel in both countries. Births attended by skilled personnel in Mexico and Peru, by indigenous status, selected years (percentage) 99 95 100 90 92 83 81 80 67 70 60 57 50 40 30 22 20 10 0 2003 2012 Mexico Indigenous women Non-indigenous women 2000 2012 Peru 12 | The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015 XX Real-time data are needed to deliver better decisions faster In today’s rapidly changing world, real-time information is needed to prepare and respond to economic, political, natural and health crises. However, most development data have a time lag of two to three years. Recent innovations are helping to circumvent this problem. For example, UNICEF and partners have used text messaging (SMS) technology to facilitate real-time collection and sharing of information about the Ebola outbreak. In Liberia, hundreds of health workers have used mHero (Health Worker Electronic Response and Outreach) and in Guinea and Sierra Leone, thousands of young people are using U-Report. This realtime information has helped rapidly locate new cases, determined what supplies are needed and disseminated lifesaving messages. XX Geospatial data can support monitoring in many aspects of development, from health care to natural resource management Knowing where people and things are and their relationship to each other is essential for informed decision-making. Comprehensive location-based information is helping Governments to develop strategic priorities, make decisions, and measure and monitor outcomes. Once the geospatial data are created, they can be used many times to support a multiplicity of applications. A geodetic reference frame allows precise observations and ‘positioning’ of anything on the Earth and can be used for many social, economic and environmental purposes, such as precision agriculture and monitoring changes in sea level rise. Strong political commitment and significantly increased resources will be needed to meet the data demand for the new development agenda XX Strengthening statistical capacity is the foundation for monitoring progress of the new development agenda To improve the availability, reliability, timeliness and accessibility of data to support the post-2015 development agenda, sustainable investments are needed in statistical capacity at all levels, especially the national level. The scaling-up of national statistical capacities and the strengthening and modernization of statistical systems will require ensuring effective institutional arrangements and internal coordination, sustainable human resources, sustainable financial resources (internal and external) and technical cooperation. National statistical offices should have a clear mandate to lead the coordination among national agencies involved and to become the data hub for monitoring. For instance, improving a country’s civil registration and vital statistics system requires strong commitment from the government and long-term efforts in strengthening administrative infrastructure. Progress in the past 20 years has been very slow, but a few countries have made great strides. In South Africa, for example, 85 per cent of births in 2012 were registered compared to 56 per cent of births in 2003. In Thailand, thanks to efforts begun in 1996, more than 95 per cent of births and deaths are now registered. XX New technology is changing the way data are For example, geospatial information was used to support health care and design social intervention measures during the chikungunya virus (chick-V) outbreak across the Caribbean. In Trinidad and Tobago, geospatial applications for smart phones assisted the Ministry of Health to identify the location of infected persons and use the information to contain the outbreak. collected and disseminated New information and communication technologies provide unprecedented opportunities for data collection, analysis and dissemination. Today, 95 per cent of the global population is covered by a cellular network, while mobilecellular subscriptions have grown to over 7 billion. Internet penetration has increased to 43 per cent of the world’s population, linking 3.2 billion people to a global network of content and applications. New data collection technologies, such as Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) and mobile text surveys (SMS), and new data sources, such as social media posts, online search records and mobile phone call records, allow faster data collection and provide near real-time information. The 2010 Brazilian Census introduced several innovations in its operation. Digital census mapping was developed and integrated with the National Address File, which made the census data collection more efficient and more accurate. Field operations through CAPI devices equipped with a Global Positioning System receiver allowed better monitoring of the field operation and real-time data editing. Measure what we treasure: sustainable data for sustainable development To cover difficult-to-reach populations, Brazil also used Internet data collection as a complementary system. However, new data sources and new data collection technologies must be carefully applied to avoid a reporting bias favouring people who are wealthier, more educated, young and male. The use of these innovative tools might also favour those who have greater means to access technology, thus widening the gap between the “data poor” and the “data rich”. XX Global standards and an integrated statistics system are key elements for effective monitoring International standards are important for building national statistical capacity. One of the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics states that “the use by statistical agencies in each country of international concepts, classifications and methods promotes the consistency and efficiency of statistical systems at all official levels“. The SecretaryGeneral’s Independent Expert Advisory Group on the Data Revolution for Sustainable Development also highlighted in its report the need for a “Global consensus on data” to adopt principles concerning legal, technical, privacy, geospatial and statistical standards that facilitate openness and information exchange while promoting and protecting human rights. Measuring sustainability is a highly technical task that requires capturing complex economic, societal and environmental interactions. Therefore, an integrated framework of indicators is needed to cover these three dimensions cohesively. Integration benefits not only data users, but also data producers and providers by reducing the respondents’ burden, the likelihood of errors and the longterm costs. Harnessing the benefits of statistical integration requires investment in the adoption of statistical standards, developing and re-engineering of statistical production processes, and changing institutional arrangements. | 13 XX Promoting open, easily accessible data and data literacy is key for effective use of data for development decision-making Data for development are public goods and should be made available to the public in open formats. Open data supports government transparency and accountability, enables the use of collective intelligence to make smarter policy decisions, increases citizen engagement and promotes government efficiency and effectiveness. Besides data, information on definitions, data quality, methods used in collecting data and other important metadata also need to be made widely available. In addition to opening up data, great efforts need to be made to release data in machinereadable formats and to provide free visualization and analysis tools. With an increasing volume of data available, people will also need the skills to use and interpret them correctly. Governments, international organizations and other stakeholders should support implementation of data literacy programmes, provide e-learning opportunities and include data literacy as a part of school curriculum. XX Together we can measure what we treasure Data, as the basis for evidence-based decision-making and accountability, are a crucial pillar of the post-2015 development agenda. The necessary data revolution is a joint responsibility of governments, international and regional organizations, the private sector and civil society. Building a new partnership will be essential to ensure that data are available to inform the post-2015 development agenda and support development decision-making for the next 15 years. 14 | The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015 Target 1.A Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day The extreme poverty rate has dropped significantly in most developing regions Proportion of people living on less than $1.25 a day, 1990, 2011 and 2015 (percentage) Sub-Saharan Africa 57 28% 47 41 Southern Asia 52 66% 23 17 Southern Asia (excluding India) 53 20 73% 14 South-Eastern Asia 46 12 84% 7 Eastern Asia (China only) 61 Key facts XX More than 1 billion people have been lifted out of extreme poverty since 1990. XX Despite progress, almost half of the world’s employed people work in vulnerable conditions. XX The proportion of undernourished people in the developing regions has fallen by almost half since 1990. XX One in seven children worldwide are underweight, down from one in four in 1990. 94% 6 4 Latin America and the Caribbean 13 66% 5 4 Caucasus and Central Asia 8 4 2 77% Western Asia 5 46% 2 3 Northern Africa 5 2 1 81% Developing regions (excluding China) 41 22 57% 18 Developing regions 47 XX By the end of 2014, conflicts had forced almost 60 million people to abandon their homes. 69% 18 14 World 36 68% 15 12 0 10 1990 2015 target 20 30 2011 40 50 60 70 2015 projection Percentage change between 1990 and 2015 Note: Sufficient country data are not available for Oceania. 80 90 100 Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger In contrast, sub-Saharan Africa’s poverty rate did not fall below its 1990 level until after 2002. Even though the decline of poverty has accelerated in the past decade, the region continues to lag behind. More than 40 per cent of the population in sub-Saharan Africa still lives in extreme poverty in 2015. In Western Asia, the extreme poverty rate is expected to increase between 2011 and 2015. Number of people living on less than $1.25 a day worldwide, 1990¬2015 (millions) 836 800 1,011 1,000 1,255 1,200 1,371 1,400 1,751 1,600 1,754 1,800 1,939 2,000 1,632 By 2011, all developing regions except sub-Saharan Africa had met the target of halving the proportion of people who live in extreme poverty (Oceania has insufficient data). The world’s most populous countries, China and India, played a central role in the global reduction of poverty. As a result of progress in China, the extreme poverty rate in Eastern Asia has dropped from 61 per cent in 1990 to only 4 per cent in 2015. Southern Asia’s progress is almost as impressive—a decline from 52 per cent to 17 per cent for the same period—and its rate of reduction has accelerated since 2008. The number of people living in extreme poverty has declined by more than half since 1990 1,926 Global poverty has declined significantly over the past two decades. The MDG target of reducing by half the proportion of people living in extreme poverty was achieved five years ago, ahead of the 2015 deadline. The latest estimates show that the proportion of people living on less than $1.25 a day globally fell from 36 per cent in 1990 to 15 per cent in 2011. Projections indicate that the global extreme poverty rate has fallen further, to 12 per cent, as of 2015. The poverty rate in the developing regions has plummeted, from 47 per cent in 1990 to 14 per cent in 2015, a drop of more than two thirds. | 15 600 400 200 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2015 (projection) The absolute number of people living in extreme poverty globally fell from 1.9 billion in 1990 to 1 billion in 2011. Estimates suggest that another 175 million people have been lifted out of extreme poverty as of 2015. Thus, the number of people worldwide living on less than $1.25 a day has also been reduced by half from its 1990 level. The world’s extremely poor people are distributed very unevenly across regions and countries. The overwhelming majority of people living on less than $1.25 a day reside in two regions—Southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa—and they account for about 80 per cent of the global total of extremely poor people. Nearly 60 per cent of the world’s 1 billion extremely poor people lived in just five countries in 2011: India, Nigeria, China, Bangladesh and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (ranked from high to low). 16 | The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015 Women face a greater risk of living in poverty Ratio of women to men of working age (20 to 59) in the lowest wealth quintile of all households, selected developing countries, 2000¬2013 In 41 countries, women are more likely than men to live in poor households In 17 countries, women are equally likely as men to live in poor households In 17 countries, women are less likely than men to live in poor households 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 0 15 30 45 60 75 Notes: This indicator is weighted by the ratio of females to males aged 20–59 in all households to reflect the fact that women may be overrepresented in the entire population. It uses the wealth asset index in the Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys as a proxy measure for poverty. Values above 103 indicate that women are overrepresented in the lowest wealth quintile while values below 97 indicate that men are overrepresented in the lowest wealth quintile. Values between 97 and 103 indicate parity. Among the 1 billion people who were still living in extreme poverty worldwide in 2011, it is unknown how many were women and girls. In part this is because measures of poverty rely on income or consumption data collected at the household level, rather than at the individual level. This makes it difficult to differentiate poverty rates within households, and hence to understand gender differences in the incidence, severity and impact of poverty. A recent study used a wealth asset index as a proxy for household poverty to compare the percentage of women and men aged 20–59 who live in the lowest wealth quintile of all households. Using this measure, the study found that women are more likely to live in poverty in 41 out of 75 countries with data. Further analysis indicates that in countries where women are overrepresented in the lowest wealth quintile of households, the households are more likely to be headed by women or to have no male adults. This suggests a greater risk of poverty among separated women, widows and single mothers, including self-reported heads of household without a male partner. Using conventional national poverty lines, another study found that in Latin America and the Caribbean, the ratio of women to men in poor households increased from 108 women for every 100 men in 1997 to 117 women to every 100 men in 2012. This upward trend is all the more concerning because it took place in the context of declining poverty rates for the whole region. Many factors contribute to women’s heightened vulnerability to poverty. These include unequal access to paid work, lower earnings, lack of social protection and limited access to assets, including land and property. Even where women are equally as likely to live in poor households as men, they are more likely to be deprived in other important areas of well-being, such as education. Understanding the characteristics of the world’s poorest people and the reasons for their deprivation is crucial in determining how best to target and eradicate poverty. It is clear that greater efforts are needed to produce highquality poverty and gender statistics if we are to monitor progress effectively in eradicating extreme poverty for all people everywhere. Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people Employment opportunities are being outpaced by the growing labour force Employment-to-population ratio, 1991 and 2015 (percentage) Northern Africa 41 43 Employment opportunities have diminished in both the developing and the developed regions. The employmentto-population ratio in the developing regions has fallen by 3.3 percentage points from 1991 to 2015, while in the developed regions it has declined by 1 percentage point. The largest declines are found in Eastern Asia and Southern Asia, which have experienced drops in the employment-to-population ratio of 6.7 and 4.6 percentage points, respectively. The employment situation has improved slightly in sub-Saharan Africa, but progress in livelihoods has been offset by persistently high underemployment and informal employment, as well as low labour productivity. Western Asia 47 46 Southern Asia 58 53 Caucasus and Central Asia 58 60 Latin America and the Caribbean 57 62 Sub-Saharan Africa Youth, especially young women, continue to be disproportionately affected by limited employment opportunities and unemployment. Only four in ten young women and men aged 15–24 are employed in 2015, compared with five in ten in 1991. This represents a fall of more than 10 percentage points. While the drop is partially a result of young people staying longer in school, still about 74 million young people are looking for a job in 2015. Globally, the youth unemployment rate is almost three times higher than the rate for adults. In 2015, the situation is most acute in Northern Africa and Western Asia, where the proportion of young people that is employed is only half of that of the entire working-age population. 63 65 South-Eastern Asia 67 67 Eastern Asia 74 68 Oceania 67 68 Developing regions 64 61 Developed regions 57 56 10 1991 20 30 40 50 2015 projection 60 17 As the global economy has entered a new period combining slower growth, widening inequalities and turbulence, employment is not expanding fast enough to keep up with the growing labour force. The global employment-to-population ratio—the proportion of the working-age population that is employed—has fallen from 62 per cent in 1991 to 60 per cent in 2015, with an especially significant downturn during the global economic crisis of 2008/2009. According to the International Labour Organization, more than 204 million people are unemployed in 2015. This is over 34 million more than before the start of the economic crisis and 53 million more than in 1991. Target 1.B 0 | 70 80 90 100 18 | The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015 The proportion of workers living in extreme poverty has fallen sharply The working middle class makes up almost half the workforce in the developing world Proportion of employed people living on less than $1.25 a day, 1991 and 2015 (percentage) Employment by economic class in the developing regions, 1991 and 2015 (percentage of total employment) Sub-Saharan Africa 100 57 36 5 13 13 Oceania 80 51 14 18 35 Southern Asia 60 53 19 17 South-Eastern Asia 50 40 25 7 Eastern Asia 49 68 20 3 Latin America and the Caribbean 8 2 11 0 Caucasus and Central Asia 5 1 Near poor (between $2 and $4) Moderately poor (between $1.25 and $2) Extremely poor (less than $1.25) Developing regions 52 11 1991 20 2015 projection Developing middle class (between $4 and $13) Western Asia 2 1 10 1991 Developed middle class and above (above $13) Northern Africa 5 1 0 16 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2015 projection The number of workers living in extreme poverty has declined dramatically over the past 25 years, despite the global economic crisis. In 1991, close to half of the workers in the developing regions were living with their families on less than $1.25 per person per day. This rate has dropped to 11 per cent in 2015, corresponding to a two-thirds decline in the number of extremely poor workers, from 900 million in 1991 to 300 million in 2015. However, progress across regions has been uneven. In 2015, 80 per cent of the working poor reside in subSaharan Africa and Southern Asia. Based on the five economic classes defined by the International Labour Organization, the number of people in the working middle classes—living on more than $4 a day—has almost tripled between 1991 and 2015. People in this group now make up almost half the workforce in the developing regions, up from 18 per cent in 1991. Yet, that means that half of workers and their families still live on less than $4 a day. Few are covered by social protection systems, and they face the constant risk of slipping back into poverty. Much work needs to be done to raise productivity, promote sustainable structural transformation and expand social protection systems for the poorest and most vulnerable workers and their families. Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger | 19 Despite progress, almost half of the world’s employed people are still working in vulnerable conditions Number and proportion of own-account and contributing family workers in total employment, 1991¬2015 Millions 1,500 Percentage 60 58 1,450 56 54 1,400 52 1,350 50 48 1,300 46 44 1,250 42 1,200 1991 1995 1999 Left axis: number of workers in vulnerable employment The proportion of workers in vulnerable employment— defined as the share of own-account work and contributing family employment in total employment— has continued to decline in all regions. The most significant progress has been made in Eastern Asia, where the proportion of people in vulnerable employment has dropped from 71.2 per cent in 1991 to 39.6 per cent in 2015. Globally, however, 45 per cent of all workers are still working in vulnerable conditions. These workers rarely have the benefits associated with 2003 2007 2011 2015 (projection) 40 Right axis: proportion of workers in vulnerable employment decent work. Sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia account for more than half of the world’s vulnerable employment, with three out of four workers falling in this category. The number of workers in vulnerable employment has increased by 25 million since 2008, because of the increasing number of people entering the labour market and limited opportunities for paid employment. Currently there are 1.45 billion workers in vulnerable employment worldwide. 20 | The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015 Target 1.C Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger Progress on ending hunger has been significant despite the challenging global environment Number and proportion of undernourished people in the developing regions, from 1990¬1992 to 2014¬2016 Millions 1,200 Percentage 25 23.3 22.1 1,000 19.7 18.3 20 18.3 17.3 800 15.0 15 13.7 12.9 600 991 991 926 902 400 940 927 10 843 793 780 5 200 0 ¬1 3 (p 20 ro 14 je ¬1 ct 6 io n) 0 ¬1 08 20 11 ¬0 7 20 04 05 02 ¬ 20 20 8 ¬0 1 99 19 ¬9 95 96 19 93 ¬ 19 19 90 ¬9 2 0 Left axis: number of undernourished people Right axis: proportion of undernourished people Right axis: 2015 target Current estimates suggest that about 795 million people are undernourished globally. This means that nearly one in nine individuals do not have enough to eat. The vast majority of them (780 million people) live in the developing regions. However, projections indicate a drop of almost half in the proportion of undernourished people in the developing regions, from 23.3 per cent in 1990–1992 to 12.9 per cent in 2014–2016. This is very close to the MDG hunger target. Rapid progress during the 1990s was followed by a slower decline in hunger in the first five years of the new millennium and then a rebound starting around 2008. The projections for the most recent period mark a new phase of slower progress. Progress in reducing hunger has been significant despite the challenging global environment over the last decade. Obstacles have included volatile commodity prices, higher food and energy prices, rising unemployment and economic recessions in the late 1990s and in 2008/2009. Frequent extreme weather events and natural disasters have also taken a considerable toll on lives and livelihoods, and eventually on progress towards global food security. In a growing number of countries, political instability and civil strife have aggravated the effects of natural disasters, resulting in numerous and significant humanitarian crises. These developments have slowed progress in reducing food insecurity in some of the most vulnerable countries and regions of the world. Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Marked differences in hunger prevalence persist across regions | 21 The rate of hunger reduction varies widely by region. The Caucasus and Central Asia, Eastern Asia, Latin America and South-Eastern Asia have reached the hunger target, due mainly to rapid economic growth in the past two decades. China alone accounts for almost two thirds of the total reduction in the number of undernourished people in the developing regions since 1990. Northern Africa is close to eradicating severe food insecurity, having attained an overall level below 5 per cent. Proportion of undernourished people, 1990¬1992 and 2014¬2016 (percentage) Sub-Saharan Africa 33 23 Caribbean In contrast, the pace of reduction in the Caribbean, Oceania, Southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa has been too slow to achieve the target. Southern Asia faces the greatest hunger burden, with about 281 million undernourished people. Progress in Oceania has been slow because of heavy dependence on food imports by the small islands that constitute the majority of countries in that region. Food security in this region is also hampered by natural and human-caused disasters, which often result in volatile prices and sudden and unpredictable changes in the availability of important staple foods. 27 20 Southern Asia 24 16 Oceania 16 14 Eastern Asia 23 10 South-Eastern Asia 31 10 In sub-Saharan Africa, projections for the 2014–2016 period indicate a rate of undernourishment of almost 23 per cent. While the hunger rate has fallen, the number of undernourished people has increased by 44 million since 1990, reflecting the region’s high population growth rate. The situation varies widely across the subregions. Northern, Southern and Western Africa have already met or are close to meeting the target. But in Central Africa progress has been hampered by rapid population growth and environmental fragility as well as economic and political upheaval. The number of undernourished people in the subregion has doubled since 1990. Western Asia 6 8 Caucasus and Central Asia 14 7 Latin America 14
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