Business Applications of Decision Sciences FINAL EXAM

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Follow all instructions in the attached assignment. Please complete the ENTIRE assignment to the very best of your ability. The assignment involves 6 very involved questions.



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University of Baltimore Merrick School of Business Dr. Jaya Singhal OPRE 315 Business Applications of Decision Sciences Fall 2018 Final Exam: 100 Points Important: Please make sure to open and read the link “Instructions for Final Exam” in the Lessons area for Week 15 for full instructions before you take this exam. Instructions: 1. Each student must take the exam individually by himself/herself. Please do not ask for help from anybody to answer any questions in the exam. Do not read or look at other students’ answers to the exam questions. Also, do not show your answers to anyone. 2. This examination is open book, open notes. You can use a calculator to do numerical calculations. No graphing calculator is allowed. Please DO NOT USE EXCEL OR ANY COMPUTER SOFTWARE OR WEBSITE to solve the problems or to draw graphs. If you answer any question using a graphing calculator, software or a website, you will not receive any credit for it. 3. Please take only three continuous hours to do this exam in one sitting. You can take up to 1 hour’s additional time for typing it. 4. For full or partial credit, show all work. Just writing the final answer will not get you full credit. 5. You need the presence of a proctor for the duration of the exam. Please submit a filled proctor form duly signed by the proctor. A signed proctor form must be submitted with the completed exam for an exam to be considered valid. 6. Write your name on each and every page of the exam. 7. Make sure you have answered all six questions. 8. Please submit your completed exam and the scanned signed proctor form from the Assignments area on the course website right after you take it or as soon as possible. Also, make a copy of your answers and keep it at a safe place. 9. Please submit the exam in Microsoft Word or PDF format. Scans or photos of the exam answers in JPG, JPEG or PNG format are acceptable but they must be clear and legible. Other formats are not acceptable. 10. Once you have submitted your completed exam, no corrections can be made to your answers. 1 Proctor Form OPRE 315 Dr. Jaya Singhal This proctor form should be filled and signed by the student and the proctor after the student has completed the exam. Please scan the filled and signed proctor form and submit it in the Assignments section on the course website or send it by e-mail. Also, please make a copy of your answers and keep it at a safe place. Directions for the Proctor: This is a 3-hour exam. The student is allowed books, notes and calculator to answer the questions. The use of Excel or any other computer software or graphing calculator or websites for solving the questions or drawing the graphs is NOT allowed. The student may take up to one additional hour to type the exam. My signature below attests to the fact that I have followed all instructions regarding this examination. Student’s Signature __________________________ Date _______________ My signature below attests that, to the best of my knowledge, the student, whose signature appears above, completed the exam in three hours and followed all the instructions. Proctor’s Name _____________________________ Proctor’s Signature __________________________ Date _______________ Proctor’s email address: ______________________________ 2 OPRE 315: Final Exam All six questions are required. Question 1: 24 Points Questions 3 and 5: 20 Points each Questions 2, 4, and 6: 12 Points each 1. (a) Briefly explain Hurwicz’s criterion for decision making. Is this criterion an optimist, conservative, or middle of the road approach? Give a real world example where Hurwicz’s criterion can be useful. (b) How is the simulation process used in Decision Sciences models? What are the advantages of using simulation? What are its limitations? How can a simulation model be verified? Give a real world example where using simulation is appropriate. (c) What is a capital budgeting integer programming problem? Briefly describe the typical objective function and constraints present in a capital budgeting problem. Give a real world example of a capital budgeting problem. (d) Briefly describe different elements of queuing analysis. Give a real world example and identify the different elements in your example. 2. A construction company is considering five projects. The projects, the number of supervisors and the number of workers required for each project, and the expected profits for each project are given below. Project 1 2 3 4 5 __________________________________________________________ Supervisors Required 5 4 4 6 3 Workers Required 14 18 28 30 24 Profit (in thousands of dollars) 250 275 290 320 200 The objective is to maximize the company's total expected profit subject to the following constraints: - Use no more than 18 supervisors - Use no more than 100 workers - If project 1 is done, then project 3 must be done and vice versa - At least three projects are to be done. Formulate a capital budgeting integer programming problem for this situation by defining (a) The decision variables. (b) The objective function. What does it represent? (c) All the constraints. What does each constraint represent? Note: Do NOT solve the problem after formulating. 3 3. A U.S.-based manufacturer of personal computers is planning to build a new manufacturing and distribution facility in one of the countries: China, the Philippines, or Mexico. The eventual benefit of the facility will differ between countries and will even vary within countries depending on the economic and political climate. The company has estimated the expected total profit (in millions of dollars) for the facility in each country under three different future economic/political climates, as follows: Economic/Political Climate Country Improvement Same Decline ──────────────────────────────── China 18.2 13.3 13.0 Philippines 20.6 13.5 14.6 Mexico 21.0 17.8 10.8 (a) What is the best decision using the maximax criterion? What is the payoff for it? (b) What is the best decision using the maximin criterion? What is the payoff for it? (c) What is the best decision using the minimax regret criterion? What is the regret for it? (d) What is the best decision using the Hurwicz’s criterion if α = 0.3? What is the payoff for it? 4. For the problem given in Question 3, assume that the probability of improvement in economic/political climate is 0.3, the probability of same economic/political climate is 0.4, and the probability of decline in economic/political climate is 0.3. Answer the following questions using the payoff table given in Question 3. (a) Calculate the expected value of each decision alternative. What is your recommendation using the expected value criterion? (b) Calculate the expected opportunity loss value of each decision alternative. What is your recommendation using the expected opportunity loss criterion? (c) Calculate and interpret the value of perfect information. 5. A librarian at a college library, on an average, could process 19 students during one hour. On an average, a student arrives to her at every 4 minutes. Assume it is a single-server waiting line model. (a) Determine the mean arrival rate and the mean service rate. (b) Determine the probability that a student will have an empty queue. (c) Determine the probability that 2 students are in the queuing system. (d) Determine the average number of students in the queue and the average number of students in the system. (e) Determine the average waiting time in the queue and the average total time in the system for a student. (f) Find the utilization factor of the librarian. 6. In Question 5, suppose the current librarian can be replaced by a specialist, who must be paid $30 per hour whereas the current librarian is paid $20 per hour. The specialist can process 23 students in one hour. If a student’s time is considered to be worth $10 per hour, is it worth to replace the current librarian with the specialist? Calculate the total cost of paying the current librarian and the students’ time and the total cost of paying the specialist and the students’ time to answer this question. 4
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Explanation & Answer

Hi, :). I am back :)..here is your final exam :).

University of Baltimore
Merrick School of Business
Dr. Jaya Singhal

OPRE 315

Fall 2018

Business Applications of Decision Sciences

Final Exam: 100 Points

Important: Please make sure to open and read the link “Instructions for Final Exam” in the
Lessons area for Week 15 for full instructions before you take this exam.

Instructions:
1. Each student must take the exam individually by himself/herself. Please do not ask for help from
anybody to answer any questions in the exam. Do not read or look at other students’ answers to the
exam questions. Also, do not show your answers to anyone.

2. This examination is open book, open notes. You can use a calculator to do numerical
calculations. No graphing calculator is allowed. Please DO NOT USE EXCEL OR ANY
COMPUTER SOFTWARE OR WEBSITE to solve the problems or to draw graphs. If you answer
any question using a graphing calculator, software or a website, you will not receive any credit for
it.

3. Please take only three continuous hours to do this exam in one sitting. You can take up to 1
hour’s additional time for typing it.

4. For full or partial credit, show all work. Just writing the final answer will not get you full credit.

5. You need the presence of a proctor for the duration of the exam. Please submit a filled
proctor form duly signed by the proctor. A signed proctor form must be submitted with the
completed exam for an exam to be considered valid.

6. Write your name on each and every page of the exam.

7. Make sure you have answered all six questions.

1

8. Please submit your completed exam and the scanned signed proctor form from the Assignments
area on the course website right after you take it or as soon as possible. Also, make a copy of
your answers and keep it at a safe place.

9. Please submit the exam in Microsoft Word or PDF format. Scans or photos of the exam answers
in JPG, JPEG or PNG format are acceptable but they must be clear and legible. Other formats are
not acceptable.

10. Once you have submitted your completed exam, no corrections can be made to your answers.

2

Proctor Form
OPRE 315
Dr. Jaya Singhal

This proctor form should be filled and signed by the student and the proctor after the student has
completed the exam. Please scan the filled and signed proctor form and submit it in the
Assignments section on the course website or send it by e-mail. Also, please make a copy of you...


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