help with lab assignment uploaded

Anonymous
timer Asked: Dec 15th, 2018

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This is a lab about "virtual disease" I had to do with a group but I wasn't able to , now I have to turn this on and I have no ideas hoe to solve it, thank you very much

General Environmental Science II ENV 122 LAB: Virtual Disease Lab Name: _______________________ Adapted from The Habitable Planet (http://www.learner.org/courses/envsci/index.html) Introduction Differences in population density, population mixing, duration of infection, transmissibility, and death rate alter the spread and overall effect of a disease. In this series of simulations, you will explore how three different hypothetical diseases affect a human population. Hypothetical Disease Kold Impfluenza Like the Real Disease Common Cold Influenza (flu) Neasles Red Death Measles Spanish Flu Go to http://www.learner.org/courses/envsci/interactives/index.php on your iPad using the Photon app. (Using another web browser will not allow you to use Flash content.) If you have a laptop available, use it instead of the iPad. Click on “Disease Lab (Unit 5, 6)” Read the Overview. The Virgin Field: Step 1 Click on “The Virgin Field” to read the introduction and begin the first interactive lab. Click on “OPEN SIMULATOR” in the upper right-hand corner to begin the simulation. In the simulator, click on the “Details” button to find the characteristics of the hypothetical disease, Kold. Record those characteristics here. • Contagious/sick: ______ days • Transmission rate: ______% • Death rate: _____% Before you begin running the simulation, make a prediction of how many sick days will be reported after 100 days in a population of 600 people, where 3 are initially sick, and the disease only spreads to adjacent neighbors. You are not graded on the accuracy of your prediction. Your prediction: • • • • • Keeping the default settings, click on “Run” to run the simulation through 100 days. As the simulation runs, observe the changes in contagious, immune, and at risk people in the population. At the end of the simulation, record your results. Click on “Reset” to reset the simulation. Run the simulation two more times and record your data. 1 The Virgin Field: Step 1 Starting Population Number Simulation Run 1 600 Simulation Run 2 600 Simulation Run 3 600 Sick Days Reported Sick Days Reported Per Capita Death Toll Death Toll (% of Population) What were the trends in the number of “Immune” and “At Risk” over the 100 days of the simulation? Do you get the same results each time you ran the simulation? How do the results compare to each other and to your prediction? The Virgin Field: Step 2 Click on “Step 2,” read the instructions (including making predictions), run the simulation, enter results, and answer the questions. You can change the population density using the dropdown menu under simulation parameters. Leave all other default settings in place. Will the number of sick days per capita be higher in the low population density or high population density simulation? The Virgin Field: Step 1 Starting Population Number Simulation Run 1 (low density) 200 Simulation Run 2 200 Sick Days Reported Sick Days Reported Per Capita 2 Death Toll Death Toll (% of Population) Simulation Run 3 200 Simulation Run 1 (high density) 900 Simulation Run 2 900 Simulation Run 3 900 What could be done to prevent the spread of disease in a population with low density? What kinds of challenges would high population density present to these precautions? The Virgin Field: For Your Consideration Click on “For Your Consideration,” read it, and answer the questions. Name three factors than can affect the spread of a disease. What is an “epidemic”? Is the classification of a disease as “epidemic” different for different diseases? 3 Vaccination: Step 1 Click on “Vaccination” to begin the next interactive lab. Read the instructions (including making predictions), run the simulation, enter results, and answer the questions. In the simulator, select “Vaccination” from the drop down menu at the top. Click on the “Details” button to find the characteristics of the hypothetical disease, Impfluenza. • Contagious/sick: _____ days • Transmission rate: _____% • Death rate: _____% Do you think there will be more sick days per capita for Impfluenza or for Kold? Settings should be: medium population density, NO population mixing, and NO vaccination. These settings allow us to compare Kold and Impfluenza. Vaccination: Step 1 Starting Population Number Simulation Run 1 600 Simulation Run 2 600 Simulation Run 3 600 Sick Days Reported Sick Days Reported Per Capita Death Toll Death Toll (% of Population) Was your prediction correct? Notice that Impfluenza, unlike Kold, has a death rate. How many people died, on average, when you ran the simulator? How were the trends for “Immune” and “At Risk” different than for your first simulations using Kold? Why were they different? 4 Vaccination: Step 2 Click on “Step 2” to begin the next interactive lab. Read the instructions (including making predictions), run the simulation, enter results, and answer the questions. How high do you think the vaccination rate will have to be to keep the death toll consistently below 1% of the population? • • • • • Population density should be set at medium. Population mixing at none. Start by setting the vaccination rate at 5% then run the simulation three times. Record your data. Now set the vaccination rate to 10% then run the simulation three times. Record your data. Vaccination: Step 2 Vaccination Rate Simulation Run 1 5% Simulation Run 2 5% Simulation Run 3 5% Simulation Run 1 10% Simulation Run 2 10% Simulation Run 3 10% Sick Days Reported Sick Days Reported Per Capita Death Toll Death Toll (% of Population) • Keep testing different vaccination rates (with medium population density and no population mixing) until you can run three simulations in a row and end up with a death toll less than 1%. At what vaccination rate can you run the simulation three times and consistently get a death toll less than 1%? • • • Change both the population density and the population mixing to high. Run the simulation three times for no countermeasures (0% vaccinated). Keep testing different vaccination rates (keep population density and population mixing high) until you can run three simulations in a row and end up with a death toll less than 1%. 5 At what vaccination rate can you run the simulation three times and consistently get a death toll less than 1%? Is this vaccination rate different than when there was medium population density and no population mixing? Why or why not? Vaccination: Step 3 Click on “Step 3” to begin the next interactive lab. Read the instructions (including making predictions), run the simulation, enter results, and answer the questions. Open the simulator and look at the “Details” for the hypothetical disease, Neasles. Now run the simulator a few times with different population density, population mixing, and vaccination rate. What is it about Neasles that requires a high vaccination rate to prevent deaths? What is meant by “herd immunity”? Vaccination: For Your Consideration Click on “For Your Consideration,” read it, and answer the questions. Vaccinating a portion of the population has the effect of (circle one) decreasing/increasing population density. Other than vaccination, how can we limit the spread of a disease? 6 Pandemic: Step 1 Click on “Pandemic” to begin the next interactive lab. Record the characteristics of Red Death disease, and answer the questions. In the simulator, click on the “Disease Details” button to find the characteristics of the hypothetical disease, Red Death. • Contagious/sick: _____ days • Transmission rate: _____ % • Death rate: _____ % Run the simulation a few times for Red Death to get a feel for how it spreads. Both Red Death and Neasles are serious diseases. What are the differences in their characteristics? What is the Spanish Flu? Pandemic: For Your Consideration Click on “For Your Consideration” and read the text. What is the role of the WHO and the CDC? (And what do these acronyms stand for?) END OF LAB (Stay healthy!) 7
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