Use data set 1 in attached file Do Part 3 + 4Times New Romans/ Double Space/ size 12 Limit: 800 words for part 3 and 200 words for part 4
Individual (by each team member)
- Use data set 1 of the countries A and B for the years 1980 - 2011
- Apply the following time trend models for each country (Country A / Country B)
- Linear trend model (LIN)
- Quadratic trend model (QUA)
- Exponential trend model (EXP)
- Based on the results found in 2):
- Which trend model will you recommend to predict the old age dependency ratio for Country A?
- Which trend model will you recommend to predict the old age dependency ratio for Country B?
For each trend model (LIN / QUA / EXP)
- Provide the regression output in the report
- Provide the formula of the trend model
- Predict the old age dependency ratio for the years
- Calculated the errors for the years
- Calculated the MAD and SSE
Explain your answers.
Part 4: Team Time Series conclusion:
In part 3, your team has looked at several trend models to predict the old age dependency ratio over time. In this part your team will write a conclusion based on your findings in part 3.
Task: Write a conclusion to predict the old age dependency ratio over time
- Provide a line chart of old age dependency ratio over time from 1980 - 2015, including the countries of allthe team members.
- Comment on the line chart. Are all the countries following the same trend?
- Compare the trend models of the countries analyzed by each team member in part 3.
- Which countries are following the same trend model?
- Which trend model does your team consider to be the best old age dependency ratio predictor? Explain your answer.
Write your conclusion in an unbiased manner to a non-technical audience.