# Use time series to predict the old age dependency ratio trend (total 1000words)

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Question description

• Use data set 1 in attached file
• Do Part 3 + 4
• Times New Romans/ Double Space/ size 12
• Limit: 800 words for part 3 and 200 words for part 4
• Individual (by each team member)

• Use data set 1 of the countries A and B for the years 1980 - 2011
• Apply the following time trend models for each country (Country A / Country B)
• Linear trend model (LIN)
• Exponential trend model (EXP)
• Based on the results found in 2):
• Which trend model will you recommend to predict the old age dependency ratio for Country A?
• Which trend model will you recommend to predict the old age dependency ratio for Country B?

For each trend model (LIN / QUA / EXP)

• Provide the regression output in the report
• Provide the formula of the trend model
• Predict the old age dependency ratio for the years
• 2012, 2013, 2014and 2015
• Calculated the errors for the years
• 2012, 2013, 2014and 2015
• Calculated the MAD and SSE

Part 4: Team Time Series conclusion:

In part 3, your team has looked at several trend models to predict the old age dependency ratio over time. In this part your team will write a conclusion based on your findings in part 3.

Task: Write a conclusion to predict the old age dependency ratio over time

• Provide a line chart of old age dependency ratio over time from 1980 - 2015, including the countries of allthe team members.
• Comment on the line chart. Are all the countries following the same trend?
• Compare the trend models of the countries analyzed by each team member in part 3.
• Which countries are following the same trend model?
• Which trend model does your team consider to be the best old age dependency ratio predictor? Explain your answer.

Write your conclusion in an unbiased manner to a non-technical audience.

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