Forcasting Model

Jun 29th, 2015
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University of California - Davis
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8.17.13Forecasting ModelWhat is forcasting?Primary function of forcasting is to predict the future using mathematical model ( time series related or other) data.Where is forecasting used?Forecast can demand for products and servicesForecast availability/ need for manpowerForecast inventory and material needs dailyCharacteristics of ForecastsA good forecast includes a mean value and standard deviation and accuracy range (high and low).A good forecast includes:Short term ( Days/Weeks) short term sales, shift schedule and resource requirementIntermediate ( Weeks/ Months) Product family sales; labor needs and resource requirements. Long term ( Months/ Years) Capacity needs; long term sales patterns, growth trendsSubjective Forecasting MethodsOne method of forcasting is the subjective forecasting. This usually require sales force composites and an aggregation of sales personnels estimates. It required a collection of the customer surveys and a jury of executive opinion. As part of the subjective forecasting is the Del

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