# MAT540 Week 4 Homework

Feb 3rd, 2012
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MAT540 Week 4 Homework Week 4 Homework Chapter 15 2. The manager of the Carpet City outlet needs to make an accurate forecast of the demand for Soft Shag carpet (its biggest seller). If the manager does not order enough carpet from the carpet mill, customers will buy their carpet from one of Carpet City’s many competitors. The manager has collected the following demand data for the past 8 months: Month Demand for Soft Shag Carpet (1,000 yd.) 1 8 2 12 3 7 4 9 5 15 6 11 7 10 8 12 a. Compute a 3-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9. b. Compute a weighted 3-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9. Assign weights of 0.55, 0.33, and 0.12 to the months in sequence, starting with the most recent month. c. Compare the two forecasts by using MAD. Which forecast appears to be more accurate? 6. The manager of the Petroco Service Station wants to forecast the demand for unleaded gasoline next month so that the proper number of gall

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Carpet CityMonth1234567893 mos moving averageDemand for Soft Shag Carpet (1,000 yd.) forecast8127991510.751110.51011.25121211Compute MAD on 3 mos moving average2.833Compute MAD on weighted 3 mos moving average7.369Which is a better forecast method?3 mos moveing average forecast is better than weighteWeighted 3 mos movingaverage forecast3.0182.35053.43354.04253.19653.255Absolute ForecastError 3 pointAbsolute Forecast eror forweighted moving avearge04.250.51.25011Please apply weightsstated in the problemos moveing average forecast is better than weighted 3 mos moving avearge forecast5.98212.64957.56655.95758.80353.255Petroco Service Stationalpha =0.3MonthOctoberNovemberDecemberJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyGas Demand80072563050064569073081012009807710MAPDExp Forecast800.00777.50733.25663.28657.79667.45686.22723.35866.35900.442943.310.11415319211.42%Error0.00-52.50-103.25-163.28-12.7922.5543.7886.65333.6579.56AbsoluteError052.5103.25163.27512.792522.5452543.7816886.64717333.65379.55711234.37SUMPercentage00.0724140.1638890.326550.0198330.0326740.0599750.1069720.2780440.081181Science and Technology Mutual FundMonthFund Price3 mos moving average forecast12345678910111213141516171819202163 1/460 1/861 3/464 1/459 3/857 7/862 1/465 1/868 1/465 1/268 1/863 1/464 3/868 5/8

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