An Analysis of Orange Revolution

Feb 3rd, 2012
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New York University
Course: Politics
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Using methodology of Selectorate Theory, this paper answers the question why Ukraine did not sustain the Orange Revolution regime, by focusing two points: the size of winning coalition and the distribution of goods. I hypothesize that the leader of the Orange Revolution failed to distribute public goods to both the winning coalitions and selectorates. Consequently, population punished leaders. I distinguish two types of independent variables, which prevented the public goods distribution: endogenous factors and an exogenous factor. Endogenous factors were policy failures, simply came from a leader’s political choice. The paper includes corruption, nationalism, and foreign policy failures in the category. An exogenous factor was an outside incident apart from a leader’s capability. Although it was not due to leader’s inadequacy, it eventually increased the number of defectors. An exogenous factor contains the World Economic Recession from 2008.

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