CMGT 575 Homework -2

Feb 3rd, 2012
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The Lexington-Fayette Urban County Government (LFUCG) governs Lexington, KY and the surounding Fayette County. As the LFUCG website states, “Lexington, consolidated with Fayette County, is the second-largest city in Kentucky and the 61st largest in the United States. Known as the ‘Horse Capital of the World’, it is located in the heart of Kentucky’s Bluegrass region.” [2] The LFUCG wishes to predict the character of its population in the future. To facilitate planning, LFUCG completes a census every 10 years and classifies the population into three categories: Rural, Suburban and City. LFUCG also examines data from successive census collection efforts and estimates population movement among the three categories. The most current LFUCG data show that population distribution may change over a 10-year period as follows: • 9% of the Rural population moves to a Suburban area and 3% to a City area • 25% of the Suburban population moves to a Rural area and 4% to a City area • 1% of the City p

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Problem statement:The Lexington-Fayette Urban County Government (LFUCG) governs Lexington, KY and the surounding Fayette County. As the LFUCG website states, "Lexington, consolidated with Fayette County, is the second-largest city in Kentucky and the 61st largest in the United States. Known as the 'Horse Capital of the World', it is located in the heart of Kentucky's Bluegrass region." [2]The LFUCG wishes to predict the character of its population in the future. To facilitate planning, LFUCG completes a census every 10 years and classifies the population into three categories: Rural, Suburban and City. LFUCG also examines data from successive census collection efforts and estimates population movement among the three categories. The most current LFUCG data show that population distribution may change over a 10-year period as follows:- 9% of the Rural population moves to a Suburban area and 3% to a City area- 25% of the Suburban population moves to a Rural area and 4% to a City area- 1% of the City population moves to a Suburban area and 2% to a rural areaRequired: Assume that the population change data as given will remain constant in the future. Model the population movement as a Markov chain. Be sure to define states and transition probabilities for the Markov chain. You may neglect population movements into or out of the LFUCG boundaries.2. If the current Lexington-Fayette Urban County population distribution is 95,000 Rural, 200,000 Suburban, and 98,000 City, pr

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